Re: Official Long Range Thread 2.0

[jmanley32]

Oh and NJ, thats NYC, I am already over their total by aslmost 1/2 a foot so I was speaking for my area which is just north of NYC.

[nutleyblizzard]

It all comes down to where the barcolonic front sets up along the coast. These multiple wave events always make me nervous. I've seen many times even inside 72 hours the frontal boundary will trend north, which in turn would screw the pooch for us. I'm not saying that's going to happen, just something to keep in mind. On the other end of the spectrum, often with these WAA events, the qpf is underdone. If that is the case, we could be looking at prolific amounts of snowfall… does PD II come into mind? The over night models are showing a colder / more confluence scenario; hopefully that trend will continue at 12z. As of right now, I'm cautiously optimistic. If the models hold serve, or even trend better by friday 12z model runs, I'll woof it up!!!   

[sroc4]

Dont bet on NYC getting to the record, its still 20" away if my memory is correct, Philly is already at 3rd I believe.

Tom CPK is currently at 57.1" The record is 75.6" Only 18.5" away. IF and a big fat IF early and late next week panned out optimally the record is def within reach. Its def not favorable odds, but may be worth a 10 dollar bet if the payout was 100 bucks.

[jmanley32]

sounds like a plan nutley!

[jmanley32]

sroc, is it really a big if since we have two possible big events in one week and maybe even after that? Frank had mentioned these are not fantasy last night. But we will see if I bet I would put down $10 lol

[amugs]

sroc, is it really a big if since we have two possible big events in one week and maybe even after that? Frank had mentioned these are not fantasy last night.  But we will see if I bet I would put down $10 lol

Ditto on this and what Nuts(AKA Nutley) posted earlier - the IF - small word with a HUGE meaning as my HS Soccer coach would say to us!  

[amugs]

Dont bet on NYC getting to the record, its still 20" away if my memory is correct, Philly is already at 3rd I believe.

Tom CPK is currently at 57.1"  The record is 75.6"  Only 18.5" away.  IF and a big fat IF early and late next week panned out optimally the record is def within reach.  Its def not favorable odds, but may be worth a 10 dollar bet if the payout was 100 bucks.

Like I said this morning that Bill Evans mentioned this on WPLJ at 7:10AM with this pattern we could beak the record and they bust his chops and then he said for the record this will go down as the #1 snowiest season in NYC - frickin' bold for BE and again I hope not the JINX!

[RJB8525]

if the 2 future storms pan out its a chance 6-12 here and a 2nd 6-12 storm or 1 godzilla..to be determined it does appear that st Patrick will be freezing his shamrocks off

[Frank_Wx]

Thread posted for storm early next week

[Frank_Wx]

On a side note, since the storm early next week is taking its sweet old time to move out, the storm threat that was originally on the 7th is now around the 9th-10th of March

[amugs]

On a side note, since the storm early next week is taking its sweet old time to move out, the storm threat that was originally on the 7th is now around the 9th-10th of March

NOTED!!

[crippo84]

As I approach my return to the states I'm jealously watching you guys track this event for March 2nd - 4th while I sit here at work. The 70s/80s out here have been terrific, but I'm hoping I get to track AND experience just one more winter event. I'm back on the 8th, so praying for the 9th/10th to keep my last chances alive for the winter. An event on the 8th, leaving me stuck halfway home in LAX, would be just my luck...if anything were to play out at all. Ok rant over...I'll enjoy the sun and warmth for another week, and I hope for the best next week for y'all. Snow weenies are non-existent down under, so I log on from time to time to get my fix with you guys lol.

[Frank_Wx]

GFS still snowing signal for coastal storm, Miller as type, around the 7th!

[Frank_Wx]

The time frame around the 7th is beginning to look interesting to me.

[jmanley32]

I saw the past few Euros, what are the other models showing big strong low off coast that time frame but a bit far off coast, but you know that NW trend. I am waiting to through sun-Tues first lol.

[amugs]

Jman - we need that front in the Midwest to slow down or stall from the looks of it or else it gets pushed out - just my obs at this time -it will change 100x between now and then. I like that we have the potential at this time and the NW trend has been our friend this winter let's see if it can continue. There is another one for the Tuesday timeframe as well - maybe warm with daylight savings kickin' in and the sun's angle but who knows - take it one at a time.

[jmanley32]

Holy moly! Eye candy only...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014022712®ion=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

[jmanley32]

mugs its still way out but it jogged pretty far north and west from last night I just compared on the site i posted.

[amugs]

Holy moly!  Eye candy only...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014022712&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

You got that right JMAN but the eye on the prize in Sun-Tues even though I told a friend I liked the end of the week potential maybe better earlier this week as crazy as this sounds.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Holy moly!  Eye candy only...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014022712&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

You got that right JMAN but the eye on the prize in Sun-Tues even though I told a friend I liked the end of the week potential maybe better earlier this week as crazy as this sounds.

No, EURO has shown this several runs being completely detached from cold air. Last nights run brought it up the Delmarva and a several inch soaking rainstorm, cold air grows stale, not crazy about this ATM. GFS is the same scenario but with LP further southeast, no cold on NW side.

[Frank_Wx]

GGEM for the 7th

[SNOW MAN]

I hope this possible event works out too. It would just make this winter epic.

[algae888]

6z gfs has a big coastal for the 7-8th time frame. perfect track for us. however very very warm. are those temps correct? would be another huge snow storm if colder. thermal profile doesn't seem right to me. the 850 0C line is in Canada.

[Dunnzoo]

the 7th storm is east....and for fun ran out the gfs and there is some eye candy for the 16th.   

[NjWeatherGuy]

12z GEFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html

[amugs]

the 7th storm is east....and for fun ran out the gfs and there is some eye candy for the 16th.       

That is good it means with this model guidance we have seen this winter it will move due west by Thursday - HAHAHA!   

[NjWeatherGuy]

EURO has a nice rainstorm

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