Re: Official Long Range Thread 2.0

[jmanley32]

CP yeah honestly, I am have not been going on as much and it seems to have been working in my favor, I was very surprised to come on and see all this and am not getting hyped about anything, YET give it 3-4 days with similar trends then I will get excited but still as when it was first posted wx weenie porn lol. Only we would understand that one lol. But still 5th is 7-8 days away so plenty of time to watch.

[Math23x7]

With the storm for next week, there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding it. Now, the 10:1 ratio goes both ways with the potential snowstorm next week. On one hand, the snowfall totals could be lowered if it mixes with sleet or freezing rain or if temperatures are marginal with the March sun angle, which could very well be the case. On the other hand, the snowfall totals could be higher than the maps with cold temperatures. Hour 150 of the 2/25 12Z EURO OP had 6-hour qpf totals of 0.5" for NYC with 0.7" just to the north of the city. But the surface temperatures remain between ~15-25 degrees during those 6 hours. So that would be 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios in the Hudson valley region. Of course, the 0C 850mb temperature line on this run is over central NJ and the south shore of LI so this storm is no where near set in stone yet.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Jman:

Not getting my hopes up yet for this, but Frank seems to think something has been brewing in this time period and he's been saying it for awhile. Now the models are following Frank.

[jmanley32]

CP I agree, and just saw the CMC runwow two big storms modeled within two days of each other. Wonder if that upgrade already went in, probably not.

[SNOW MAN]

Jman:

Not getting my hopes up yet for this, but Frank seems to think something has been brewing in this time period and he's been saying it for awhile. Now the models are following Frank.

Come on Cp you know your heart rates starting to pick up a little. Do you know why ? Because you are a SUPER SNOW WEENIE and you just can't help it.
I know mine has started to race just a bit. LOL !

[sroc4]

At H5 GFS seems to have the northern energy weakest. CMC and Euro are def stronger and a bit more focused with the energy.  Also look at how it tries to split the PV into 3 separate centers on the GFS.  That looks strange to me.  When comparing the H5's from the GFS CMC and Euro the main difference I see with regards to the northern stream; however, is the lack of a connection between the s/w diving into the northern plains and the PV.  Notice on the GFS there seems to be a weakness in the northern branch just N or the GL allowing the heights to bend NW a bit.  To me it looks like it allows the SE ridge to build in just a bit pushing the boundary layer a tad N with respect to the CMC and Euro.  

The main difference in the southern branch between the GFS vs the CMC/Euro is look how strung out the southern energy is on the GFS.  Although differences in placement and intensity the CMC and Euro both seem to concentrate the southern energy better.  I believe this leads to development of LP along the boundary layer which enhances the precip on the surface maps.    

I am not 100% exactly what these things truly mean however.  For instance.  If the GFS were right about the weakness in the northern energy above the GL and the trailing s/w diving into the N plains does not have that connection with the PV as is depicted by the CMC and Euro does that lead to a faster flow to the STJ??  If so is it because the SE ridge builds in slightly stronger, so therefore, the southern energy is more strung out which leads to a weak overrunning event and a weak precip shield because there just isn't any focus of energy to spawn LP along the boundary layer as depicted by the 12z?  If the CMC and Euro are right about that connection in the northern stream with the PV does that mean the boundary layer sets up a tad further south, and does this lead to a slightly slower STJ which leads to a more focused soln to the energy in the STJ which in turn leads to LP development and enhanced precip? I would love to hear others opinions on that.
" />
" />
" />

Bottom line all three models still have large differences between them and these solns will change so for now we sit and watch.  And as Tom said above look for trends and consistencies at 500mb first.  Then and only then should we worry about precip amts, temp profiles etc.    Personally I think we should not give this threat a thread until under 5 days.  That's just me being superstitious however.

[Dunnzoo]

haha folks...time to step awaayyyy from the models! Way too soon as pretty as those maps look   

[amugs]

The GFS is a party pooper IMO as a SUPER SNOW WEENIE!!

Really, Great right up and it is 5-6 days away so we can chill out - literally with our cold, fzard pattern. The energy comes onshore Friday in Cali and then we strat to see the models sample this energy better.

I read that the SST's of the Pac are warming of the mid lattitudes and that we are seemingly heading into an El Nino pattern - the STJ will not be raging for this storm but should be increasing as we move through March bringing a lot of moisture into the CONUS and on another note bring severe weather with it as well.

Tom is just pissed cause he may have to change his flight out of this tundra no matter what he says- HAHAHA!

Let's not jump ship if the models lose this for a run or two the next day or two as well - that PV is an important player and the confluence is going to also be key. i feel the STJ will be there for us as we move forward and the temp gradient in the plains (did anyone see this -35C in the north to +25C in the central/south - Insane!). Let's hope the gradient set ups just right for us and not too far south. We shall see.....

[amugs]

]From a very respected and intelligent poster on another board (Isotherm) Frank mentioned him one time before here

Phenomenal synoptic pattern as depicted on today's 12z ECMWF ensembles for this storm threat. I've illustrated the features on the map.

Strong -EPO block, retrograding west based positive height anomaly near Greenland/north of HB. PV and associated confluent flow, which will ultimately serve as the catalyst for any energy transfer to the mid atlantic coast. Western trough induced thermal gradient / baroclinic zone running Plains to East Coast. A similar set-up to the post superbowl storm, and many of our December events, but better in the NAO region.

[NjWeatherGuy]

The GFS is a party pooper IMO as a SUPER SNOW WEENIE!!

Really, Great right up and it is 5-6 days away so we can chill out - literally with our cold, fzard pattern. The energy comes onshore Friday in Cali and then we strat to see the models sample this energy better.

I read that the SST's of the Pac are warming of the mid lattitudes and that we are seemingly heading into an El Nino pattern - the STJ will not be raging for this storm but should be increasing as we move through March bringing a lot of moisture into the CONUS and on another note bring severe weather with it as well.

Tom is just pissed cause he may have to change his flight out of this tundra no matter what he says- HAHAHA!  

Let's not jump ship if the models lose this for a run or two the next day or two as well - that PV is an important player and the confluence is going to also be key. i feel the STJ will be there for us as we move forward and the temp gradient in the plains (did anyone see this -35C in the north to +25C in the central/south - Insane!). Let's hope the gradient set ups just right for us and not too far south. We shall see.....

It's mostly because it's ridiculous to get excited this far out. I am excited about the potential, that's it. Trust me if the 2 feet the CMC shows or the 12-18 the EURO shows verifies I'd be happy to change my flight. The issue is we've seen this mid-range crisis BS many times before namely 2/5, 2/9 and others. Under 100hrs around 72 the models begin to hone in on the track, we are well from that, we will be there Friday night sometime. Anyone thinking these maps are going to verify at this time are setting up for utter disappointment. I'd be a miracle to see the jackpot stay in the same exact area for 120 hours up into the event. We are not even in NAM range yet which is a red flag right off the bat. Out biggest snows this year have been storms that crept up on us in the last few days before the event. The things that have shown up on the mid-range, even with model consensus (tonight) have fizzled as the event gets closer. Bottom line is things can and WILL change. For better or for worse.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Don't listen to me if you want but look at the GEFS members, anything from Apps runner to track right over us, very few OTS. A warmer solution is a bigger issue than an OTS with this IMHO.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html

[RJB8525]

Lee is still talking: sunday snow and rain. sun-mon snow plowable significant snow into tuesday then staying around with cold

he's said this and being stern all weekend week long now

[NjWeatherGuy]

As usual Mt. Holly is being less bullish than Upton

Upton

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH EXACT
PLACEMENT...AND WITH EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MOVEMENT BY SUNDAY.
TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.

AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH. LEANING TOWARD COLDER SOLUTIONS...THUS MORE SNOW WITH THIS
OVERRUNNING EVENT. STAY TUNED

Mt. Holly

SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING ON THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK WARM FRONT, NOW ARRIVING IN OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, OR ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY WERE SHOWING. WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO WARRANT A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BIG QUESTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL GET BEFORE IT STALLS, AND POSSIBLY
RETREATS BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR SPRING
WEATHER WATCHERS IS THAT THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND E
CENTRAL PA SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO, PULLING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH. HOWEVER, THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN IN THE TRANSITION SEASON, EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES, AND THAT IS CERTAINLY THE CASE WITH
THE 12Z RUNS. THERE IS ESPECIALLY LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

[SoulSingMG]

Weather Underground is apparently calling for 9-18" from Sun--Tues. Someone tweeted that to Lee; Lee responded saying 'potential is there but it's awfully early to pull the trigger on that gun' ...I, and I'm sure along with everyone else on here, agree with him lol

[NjWeatherGuy]

AWFULLY EARLY being the key words there

[jbnyy224]

they have various accumulations spread out 1-3 here 1-3 there 5-8 here. They always do this. Saying they have 9-18 inches is very misleading. You have to add all these amounts over like 48 hours lol.

[RJB8525]

this one will hit hard. march,cold potential major storm beginning of work wee with m-w time frame..not good so far either way even if its 1/4 of projected big amounts

[NjWeatherGuy]

this one will hit hard. march,cold potential major storm beginning of work wee with m-w time frame..not good so far either way even if its 1/4 of projected big amounts

Could be a complete rainstorm according to some GEFS members, too early...

[SoulSingMG]

[quote="jbnyy224"]they have various accumulations spread out 1-3 here 1-3 there 5-8 here.  They always do this.  Saying they have 9-18 inches is very misleading. You have to add all these amounts over like 48 hours lol.[/quote

Lol, okay, I didn't look myself at WU, just saw that and was surprised. I'm excited we've got another POTENTIAL biggie to track guys! :-D

[NjWeatherGuy]

GFS @ 111

[NjWeatherGuy]

114

[NjWeatherGuy]

117



120

[NjWeatherGuy]

123

[NjWeatherGuy]

Still raining at 129 according to GFS

[NjWeatherGuy]

Through 135



So far it's been raining for 20hrs lol...

[NjWeatherGuy]

138, moderate rain



Surface freezing line on the northern tip of NJ, have to say this looks too warm for this track

[NjWeatherGuy]

141



144

[Sponsored content]