Re: Official Long Range Thread 2.0

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yuck soul, I saw a huge bomb. But couldn't it start off that way and change to snow if pulls in cold air?

Historically speaking, if a low is that strong just inside the BM, we would turn to snow here in the city faster than what the EURO is showing now. A shift east in the low's track, and we would be looking at quite an event.

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:14 pm

Still huge differences between GFS and Euro solns...go figure. Alot to be worked out

by **docstox12** Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:19 pm

Well, at least there is something there to work with.We all know how the models will twist and turn until the event arrives.

NWS hanging tough with all snow for me in Mahwah at the moment.

by **essexcountypete** Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:22 pm

docstox12 wrote:Love that new avatar, Pete.

Thanks doc, I'm hoping for change of luck. Miss Cleo didn't help, and Zamfir busted bad.

As Grselig rightly points out, the ace in the hole might be Ace Cannon, the "greatest saxophone player who ever lived", but I may have to go with Slim Whitman to summon up one last winter gasp.

by **docstox12** Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:26 pm

Keep juggling them,Pete, the right combo will come up sooner or later.

Meanwhile, I'll enjoy Boxcar.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:986 mb low just off/over southern jersey 12z euro.

At work so I have seen no maps but if the low is over SNJ coming from the south and not the Midwest we would have no shot at snow in coastal areas and just a slop in interior.

by **algae888** Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:Still huge differences between GFS and Euro solns...go figure. Alot to be worked out

add in the cmc which shows a cold frontal passage, and we have hugh differences is in the models. some of the gfs members also have a cmc solution right now. remember the CMC picked up first on the storm passing to our South last week. still a lot to be worked out.

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:01 pm

lets hope we can get some more cold air to work its way before the storm or else it'll be a rain storm

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:27 pm

That sounds better soul : )

by **algae888** Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:35 pm

latest forecast for my area from NWS..

Wednesday Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

have added rain in on weds. and also the likely POP. I think we can start a thread on this now. looks more and more likely we will have a storm.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:45 pm

Frank said he is doing a blog tonight, then he will decide on the thread after that. I am very interested to see what he says around 6pm.

by **amugs** Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:50 pm

algae888 wrote:latest forecast for my area from NWS..

Wednesday Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

have added rain in on weds. and also the likely POP. I think we can start a thread on this now. looks more and more likely we will have a storm.

Let's temper ourselves algae - there are a lot of details to work out in the next few days - it jinxed us the last time!!

The Ensembles are not in agreement either so the OP runs will be bomb, bust, and everything in between. Like this winter the models have struggled with our storms and 5 days out sucked - IMO we can wait a few more runs my man and Sunday we can start - we will only drive ourselves crazy and the thread by Wed will be 70+ pages.

As others are saying and from what I see there are many options on the table and hoping for the right one to come to fruition for us Snow Weenie's - we look at ens members and H5 maps - I do not like right now what Ace was saying earlier and that is one important aspect we must watch.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:08 pm

I won't even mention weatherunderground, can you believe they are already putting totals in their txt forecast!

by **essexcountypete** Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I won't even mention weatherunderground, can you believe they are already putting totals in their txt forecast!

It might be premature but I give them credit for at least mentioning the potential. Most forecasts will hedge this far out and only put in a chance of precip.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:34 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Love that new avatar, Pete.

Thanks doc, I'm hoping for change of luck. Miss Cleo didn't help, and Zamfir busted bad.

As Grselig rightly points out, the ace in the hole might be Ace Cannon, the "greatest saxophone player who ever lived", but I may have to go with Slim Whitman to summon up one last winter gasp.

Pete:

I love the idea. I haven't had more than an inch of snow since February 18th, if changing my avatar can help so be it.

I decided to go with my lazy ass drunken thermometer, which keeps losing every low temperature contest to snow man. If this works you're a freakin genius. I have a good feeling about this.

by **amugs** Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:39 pm

Upton

THE GFS WHILE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY...STILL TAKES
A FLATTER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED INTO THU...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER AND STRONGER. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES COME WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A 983 MB JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
LI...WITH THE GFS PHASING LATER AND MUCH FARTHER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THU. BOTH TRACKS SUPPORT SOME WINTRY WEATHER PCPN
ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE TIME WILL PLAY IT SAFE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WED....TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THERE IS A POLAR HIGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA FOR A COLD AIR SUPPLY AT AROUND 1025 MB. TRACK IS
ALWAYS CRITICAL HERE. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:45 pm

amugs wrote:
algae888 wrote:latest forecast for my area from NWS..

Wednesday Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

have added rain in on weds. and also the likely POP. I think we can start a thread on this now. looks more and more likely we will have a storm.

Let's temper ourselves algae - there are a lot of details to work out in the next few days - it jinxed us the last time!!

The Ensembles are not in agreement either so the OP runs will be bomb, bust, and everything in between. Like this winter the models have struggled with our storms and 5 days out sucked - IMO we can wait a few more runs my man and Sunday we can start - we will only drive ourselves crazy and the thread by Wed will be 70+ pages.

As others are saying and from what I see there are many options on the table and hoping for the right one to come to fruition for us Snow Weenie's - we look at ens members and H5 maps - I do not like right now what Ace was saying earlier and that is one important aspect we must watch.

I agree, let's try to do everything the complete opposite of what we did the last storm, that never was. Same premise as when George Constanza did everything the opposite of his basic instincts, and his life changed for the better.

by **amugs** Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:49 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:
algae888 wrote:latest forecast for my area from NWS..

Wednesday Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

have added rain in on weds. and also the likely POP. I think we can start a thread on this now. looks more and more likely we will have a storm.

Let's temper ourselves algae - there are a lot of details to work out in the next few days - it jinxed us the last time!!

The Ensembles are not in agreement either so the OP runs will be bomb, bust, and everything in between. Like this winter the models have struggled with our storms and 5 days out sucked - IMO we can wait a few more runs my man and Sunday we can start - we will only drive ourselves crazy and the thread by Wed will be 70+ pages.

As others are saying and from what I see there are many options on the table and hoping for the right one to come to fruition for us Snow Weenie's - we look at ens members and H5 maps - I do not like right now what Ace was saying earlier and that is one important aspect we must watch.

I agree, let's try to do everything the complete opposite of what we did the last storm. Same premise as when George Constanza did everything the opposite of his basic instincts, and his life changed for the better.

Hopefully ours will too my HV friend - playing it cautiously at this point and I like that we have all agreed in one way or another not to post maps - the circus starts when that happens this far out and I think Ol' man Winter and Mother Nature get pissed and screw us - they say take that in a bad way.

We must learn from our mistakes if not then it is deemed ..............failure.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:55 pm

Mugs:

Those that can't remember the past, are condemned to repeat it. Let us not be so foolish.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 5:05 pm

Are good with posting txt, like from NWS? And can we look at maps, or will that jinx it too? LOL I can't believe I am going in for this but if you believe I will too.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 5:07 pm

So far you know who has kept his cool. Lets hope it stays that way!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 07, 2014 5:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So far you know who has kept his cool. Lets hope it stays that way!

We are all proud of you Jman.

If you get the urge to post an instant weather map with huge snowfall amounts, just do the opposite and post a rainfall map for the opposite side of the world, let's say Indonesia.

JK

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 07, 2014 5:20 pm

Gfs looks very similar to 12z euro run...just a a little weaker with lp but still rainstorm for the cost we need the cold air!

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:18 pm

Making a blog now

by **Grselig** Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So far you know who has kept his cool. Lets hope it stays that way!

We are all proud of you Jman.

If you get the urge to post an instant weather map with huge snowfall amounts, just do the opposite and post a rainfall map for the opposite side of the world, let's say Indonesia.

JK

I just took all the gas and oil out of my snowblower and will sacrifice my good shovels. I hear there is some kind of rain watch in Hong Kong

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:38 pm

Grselig wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So far you know who has kept his cool. Lets hope it stays that way!

We are all proud of you Jman.

If you get the urge to post an instant weather map with huge snowfall amounts, just do the opposite and post a rainfall map for the opposite side of the world, let's say Indonesia.

JK

I just took all the gas and oil out of my snowblower and will sacrifice my good shovels. I hear there is some kind of rain watch in Hong Kong

Wow Grselig, if we do somehow get this storm, that is deserving of some kind of medal.

by **Grselig** Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:50 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Grselig wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So far you know who has kept his cool. Lets hope it stays that way!

We are all proud of you Jman.

If you get the urge to post an instant weather map with huge snowfall amounts, just do the opposite and post a rainfall map for the opposite side of the world, let's say Indonesia.

JK

I just took all the gas and oil out of my snowblower and will sacrifice my good shovels. I hear there is some kind of rain watch in Hong Kong

Wow Grselig, if we do somehow get this storm, that is deserving of some kind of medal.

It's all about Snow greatness. It's in reach.

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