Re: Official Long Range Thread 2.0

[amugs]

Here is the CFS 2 maps - saying cold and below normal temps for a while - all of March
 
quote="docstox12"]NWS]http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=b7ctww&s=8#.UxnOEJ0o51s[/img[/img]quote="docstox12"]NWS
 
It's not over yet, folks.Just amazing how old man winter refuses to budge.Still almost a foot of snowpack with huge piles on streets and lots, albeit grey, black and dingy.Maybe these snow showers on the weekend will dress it up a bit.[/quote]
 
CP for your records from UNC W
 
2013-14 has 32 days with a max 32 or lower now...the average is 19 since 1930...1976-77 and 1917-18 had the most days 32 or lower with 45......
 
#....winter....since 1930
 
45 in 1976-77
 
42 in 1977-78
 
39 in 1935-36
 
38 in 1933-34
 
32 in 2013-14
 
32 in 1947-48
 
31 in 2002-03
 
31 in 1993-94
 
30 in 1995-96
 
30 in 1980-81
 
the average days the minimum was 32 or lower is 75 since 1930...We have that now and will add at least seven more days...Since 1990 KNYC is averaging around 65 days with a minimum 32 or lower...

[Sparky Sparticles]

I'm thinking I'll be trout fishing in the snow in April this year,LOL!

Since I started reading this forum and rattling off the best posts to my hsband, he predicts we'll have snow on Easter (Apr 20th) and, as a joke, said we'll have more when he takes some vacation time in August. Yeah, I smacked him for that one.

Looking out my window at the snowpack, grey sky and cold makes me think it's January 7th and not March!

We got one of our cars out completely now, and less parking spaces have coatings of ice so there's less chance of getting stuck in them, but my station wagon and about 5 others vehicles are still stuck parked diagonally with a foot or more of solid ice piled behind them. That stuff is so hard it bends shovels and ice choppers! We won't get out for a few more weeks.

[amugs]

Upton

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH THE INTERACTION OF PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD CONTINUES WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF PHASING AND RESULTANT TROUGHING...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN PAC ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN US LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING AROUND A SE SINKING POLAR VORTEX. WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD. A GENERAL SCENARIO OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TUE...AND THEN ACROSS TN VALLEY WED...PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A POLAR FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD SCENARIO IS PREFERRED...WITH THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW DETERMINING ALL SNOW VS A WINTRY MIX. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED

[jmanley32]

snow man, it even looks like GFS has few more "events" that could be snow in the long range too. This will be one of those long lived winters. No one here believes me its going to stay cold for a good while, we'll they will see! Personally I want all this disgusting ice crud to melt tomorrow with the warm temps to prep us for what hopefully is a great storm. No real snow pack here left just snirt lol. I know it WAY to soon to speculate (although Frank is doing a blog tonight, cannot wait to see it) and the chances for a you know what but even if it started a little warm according to Franks maps above the 32 line drops south way into the ocean, goood for everyone

[jmanley32]

The fact that NWS Upton is saying that last part is promising this far out. Setup looks good with the maps Frank posted earlier on the PV, blocking etc. Now it just all needs to come together, I am all in for a blowout : ) I will say this damn cold with nothing going on just pisses me off. I even stayed home yesterday cuz it was just too darn cold and I was at my wits end lol

[jmanley32]

Let me re-explain myself that I don't mind the cold if there is excitement to go with it. All this dirt ice and snow is just dangerous (I slipped many times) And brown ground shoing in most spots need to make it a wonderland again.

[skinsfan1177]

No offense snow man its just been a rough year at my job eith the cold and yes im a snow weenie

[SNOW MAN]

Just watched Henry's video. His gut feeling is we're only going to have a wave of LP not a big storm. Whatever he says you know it'll do the opposite. So gas up your snow blowers get your shovels ready, get your bread, milk and eggs in because it'll probably be a WHOPPER of a storm.  

[jmanley32]

Go snow man! I hope ur right!   

[essexcountypete]

Just watched Henry's video. His gut feeling is we're only going to have a wave of LP not a big storm...

Seriously, best news of the week. I'm a firm believer in the HMNCT (Henry Margusity Negative Correlation Therory). I'd take that as the most positive signal so far for a winter storm.

[jmanley32]

I know its too early to make specifics but this is a more general setup question. Is it possible its going to be too warm next Wed? I read somewhere that it was, I sure hope not! The PV looks to be far enough south to sustain cold. Certainly is cold enough and the warmup tomorrow as I understand can have a effect on it getting colder.

[jmanley32]

Is this the Henry from Accu? Have never heard of him otherwise, is he nutorious for getting the forecasts the opposite.

[docstox12]

Just watched Henry's video. His gut feeling is we're only going to have a wave of LP not a big storm...

Seriously, best news of the week. I'm a firm believer in the HMNCT (Henry Margusity Negative Correlation Therory). I'd take that as the most positive signal so far for a winter storm.

If I had an indicator as accuirate as that for my trading operations, I'd be in the serious chips,LOL!

He pumped last week's big snowstorm and it busted out in the NYC area.


HENRY PUMPS=YOU BUST

HENRY BUST=BIG SNOW DUMP

[docstox12]

I know its too early to make specifics but this is a more general setup question.  Is it possible its going to be too warm next Wed?  I read somewhere that it was, I sure hope not!  The PV looks to be far enough south to sustain cold.  Certainly is cold enough and the warmup tomorrow as I understand can have a effect on it getting colder.

NWS for my area feels it will be an all snow event.If a big coastal gets wound up and it's on the BM, it will drag in the colder air to keep it all snow.

[jmanley32]

Heh Doc interesting, I will hold you all to this lol. Bernie isn't so much the same though. He is more worried about the guff he got on twitter for his yellow drawing yesterday lol. Best wxman fail I have seen in a while.

[jmanley32]

Luv it doc! Like the sound of that and yes I seen Upton they are hinting in that direction but refuse to give a definite of course this far out.

[essexcountypete]

HM prediction has inspired me to adopt a new late night icon as my avatar. Out with Zamfir, in with the smiling Boxcar Willie.

[docstox12]

Love that new avatar, Pete.

[Grselig]

HM prediction has inspired me to adopt a new late night icon as my avatar. Out with Zamfir, in with the smiling Boxcar Willie.

Pete. Remember Ace Cannon. Wtbs ad. Saxophonist. Man was a genius

[sroc4]

Quick update from me on next week storm threat.  Looking at 500mb only Energy that gets held back in the SW CONUS in the Tues-Wed time frame, plus a s/w that comes ashore in the NW combine to disrupt and flatten the western ridge as the northern energy digs into the N plains.  This leads to a typical progressive look with Weak interactions with the southern stream and a weak LP via the northern stream that scoots along.  We've seen that alot this winter.  At least that's the trend anyway.  The Euro and its ens as of last night at least..this is writen before 12z today, is different.  It actually ejects most of the energy in the SW and phases it with the northern stream leading to a much more potent system.  That being said Even the euro leaves a little energy back in the SW as well and has the s/w coming ashore in the NW.  The energy in the SW if it holds true, undercuts the ridge and acts to flatten it out.  Which would not be good if we want a beast. The energy isnt going to be onshore until Monday at the earliest so, A long way to go here, but thats the trend Ive seen in the past few days.  
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[SoulSingMG]

12Z EURO comes in as a big rainstorm for NYC/the coast.

[jmanley32]

Yuck soul, I saw a huge bomb. But couldn't it start off that way and change to snow if pulls in cold air?

[jmanley32]

986 mb low just off/over southern jersey 12z euro.

[SNOW MAN]

Is this the Henry from Accu? Have never heard of him otherwise, is he nutorious for getting the forecasts the opposite.

It certainly would be that Henry.

[SNOW MAN]

The local Met in my area said that it would probably start off as rain, but go over to snow.
And noted that it's 5 days out and there's a lot of details to be worked out. I'd say that's a fair statement.

[SoulSingMG]

Yuck soul, I saw a huge bomb.  But couldn't it start off that way and change to snow if pulls in cold air?

Historically speaking, if a low is that strong just inside the BM, we would turn to snow here in the city faster than what the EURO is showing now. A shift east in the low's track, and we would be looking at quite an event.

[sroc4]

Still huge differences between GFS and Euro solns...go figure. Alot to be worked out

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