March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

thats a pretty big spread so 6-18 inches lol. Thats accu for ya!

Mets2695 wrote:Accuweather:

The best forecast they have been out all winter long!! HAHAHAHA!!   

CMC to the Euro to the GFS basically.

amugs wrote:

Mets2695 wrote:Accuweather:

The best forecast they have been out all winter long!! HAHAHAHA!!   

A snow weenies dream. I can only hope.

jmanley32 wrote:thats a pretty big spread so 6-18 inches lol.  Thats accu for ya!

Yeah, Inaccuweather at it's best.

I had an old GF who called me a "commitophobic" but Accuweather's refusal to pinpoint these snow amounts beats me out easily.

Mets2695 wrote:Accuweather:

They are not buying that euro solution that has the heavy snow way further south.They have much lesser amounts south.

Stay tuned!!!!!

I think although the models are still slightly different in what the PV is going to do the differences are close enough at this point to not have huge consequences on the outcome but rather minor ones.  All three models show the PV by Sat situated over the Hudson Bay.  As we progress to Monday it shifts E to NE depending on the model and sets up somewhere over central to northern Quebec/Newfound Land area.  To me as long as the main center of circulation of the PV is in this vicinity despite some differences the outcome will be very similar.
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 To me the GFS took a few big steps from what it was showing a few days ago.  This next image below was the image from the GFS a few days ago.  Look at the weakness in the northern stream.  That allowed the SE Ridge to build in to strong and send the R/S line N into the HV.  If you compare it to the image from todays 12z GFS above obviously that has changed.  The second feature that has changed is the PV.  The other day the GFS had it separated into 3 distinct centers of circulation.  To some degree the CMC today tried to do something similar but I believe this is wrong.  And the third one is now all three models have the southern energy more consolidated ejecting pieces of it out along the boundary layer.  Look at the image below  (12z 2/25) compared to the ones above (today).  
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All models have now been consistently showing this extended region of vorticity embedded within the northern stream extending from western Canada to Eastern Canada where the PV is.  The strength of the northern branch is helping to keep the SE ridge from building northward too much.  As a result HP is present north of the great lakes and into Maine which will enforce the cold air.  Another consistency on all three models is that this HP to the north is strengthening instead of weakening from Sat into Monday which will help to enforce the cold air further.
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To me all this creates a set up where the 0* 850 Line will set up shop somewhere just south of LI possibly cutting through the south shore and south fork extending west through central NJ give or take about 15-25miles.  Mixing may occur for places like LI but I think it will be short lived and remain fairly insignificant when all is said and done given the duration of this event.  

So I believe that there is enough consistency that a solid swath of 6-12", possibly more in some locations, extending from the HV southward through central NJ and LI will happen.  The details will be if there is a shift N or S by about 25-30 miles and whether the QPF amts fluctuate much.  to me 4-8" in that zone is almost a lock and as much as 12-18" is possible.

This map has 0 support in my area. Has me just south of the 6-12" line in the 3-6, still, an ok forecast at this time. EURO has 95 NW between 20-25 degrees during the duration of the storm meaning 15-1 ratios, here's QPF.

MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM WHICH SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH ITS SURFACE LOW...AND ALSO TOWARDS A COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE CMC AND GFS. THERE IS NOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE MONDAY.

Evidently the EURO Ensembles are colder and a tad north of the 12z OP run, a very good thing if it's true. I cannot verify ATM.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Evidently the EURO Ensembles are colder and a tad north of the 12z OP run, a very good thing if it's true. I cannot verify ATM.

Only to 54 on Wxbell also. I wonder where people get them so quick.

Quietace wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Evidently the EURO Ensembles are colder and a tad north of the 12z OP run, a very good thing if it's true. I cannot verify ATM.

Only to 54 on Wxbell also. I wonder where people get them so quick.

No idea, on pro it doesn't come in until 530, lol, it's a joke. Some people probably have very expensive subscriptions (not that pro is cheap), please post if u get it Ace.

I think the heavier snow will be farther south than the accuweather map IMO

skinsfan1177 wrote:I think the heavier snow will be farther south than the accuweather map IMO

I agree, right along and within 30 miles of 95 in either direction looks like a good spot to be in ATM. Right now I have highest confidence in all snow if you draw a line connecting the two indentations of NJ and north of there I am fairly confident in all snow. 20 miles to the south has a good chance at all snow, more uncertain further south.

Just watched Raynos video, he at 10am was still mentioning the R word for NYC and south? I don't see this happening with all the maps here and the talk. I usually like him but didn't like that piece!

NJ I agree that puts me in jackpot! Hoping for that higher end 12-18 but will settle for somewhere in the middle lol, at this point its not if for the storm but how much i guess and where.

algea too as he likes 10 min from me : )

A Early Euro ensemble pic.

accu does mention the heaviest snow falling in the eastern end of the storm ie. US!

Quietace wrote:A Early Euro ensemble pic.

Any 850s and precip combination maps?

Hr 96

EPS total precip

Hr 96 was the warmest 850s got.

Man I used to do a write up and get at least some feedback. Anyone have any thoughts, criticisms, anything??

Looks very cold.

jmanley32 wrote:Just watched Raynos video, he at 10am was still mentioning the R word for NYC and south?  I don't see this happening with all the maps here and the talk.  I usually like him but didn't like that piece!

Watched Myers video and he feels at this point everyone north of Route 80 stays all snow with mixing gradually more as you head for the PA Turnpike and sleet and rain south of that.He said a slight southern track would take the 6 to 12 further south of Route 80 but a slight northward jog would drop accumulations to 4 to 6 North of 80.

sroc4 wrote:Man I used to do a write up and get at least some feedback.  Anyone have any thoughts, criticisms, anything??

Its right on.

EPS mslp is pretty south