2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0

Most of CNJ, especially on SE 6-10" unbelievable lol

well can we say we can now go to bed not totally depressed?

Good north trends but let's not model hug for now

I can't even take it seriously, very well could be south by morning

Mets2695 wrote:well can we say we can now go to bed not totally depressed?

I don't let it make me depressed. More so frustrating. And if anything the GFS just stirred the pot.

I need to change my thinking. I can't trust a model more than 24 hours out. really we just need to watch the radar trends tomorrow and hope for the best. this is a joke.

algae888 wrote:I need to change my thinking. I can't trust a model more than 24 hours out. really we just need to watch the radar trends tomorrow and hope for the best. this is a joke.

I would hate to be a met that had to make a call on this disaster. There is a reason I didn't want to play with a map this time around, at least not yet.

I have a question if this storm tracked like it was projected was the duration of the storm going to be into early Tuesday morning ? Why did that change

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

algae888 wrote:I need to change my thinking. I can't trust a model more than 24 hours out. really we just need to watch the radar trends tomorrow and hope for the best. this is a joke.

I would hate to be a met that had to make a call on this disaster. There is a reason I didn't want to play with a map this time around, at least not yet.

you know NJ the mets did the right thing with warning everyone with this storm. what the storm showed two days ago they had to make that call. if the NAM verifies there will be a lot of embarrassed mets who will try to wiggle their way out. until they find a better way to predict the weather this will happen.

UKIE went slightly north

What adds insult to injury We have all this cold air this late in the season The temps are going to be 10* below normal most of the upcoming week Its too bad we could not get the big one we thought was on our doorstep I can understand how members feel

one more thing has anyone ever seen such a dramatic trend this late as we have going on with the models for this storm. I don't recall any. I have seen where a storm pops up out of nowhere 2-3 days out but never seen storm shift so far in one direction.

Lookin good
http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

algae888 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

algae888 wrote:I need to change my thinking. I can't trust a model more than 24 hours out. really we just need to watch the radar trends tomorrow and hope for the best. this is a joke.

I would hate to be a met that had to make a call on this disaster. There is a reason I didn't want to play with a map this time around, at least not yet.

you know NJ the mets did the right thing with warning everyone with this storm. what the storm showed  two days ago they had to make that call. if the NAM verifies there will be a lot of embarrassed mets who will try to wiggle their way out. until they find a better way to predict the weather this will happen.

Didn't say they did the wrong thing. In fact the opposite, their job is not easy at all. People that don't know much about the weather blame the mets when their forecast isn't right but it's due to volatile models like this. However there are some people that release maps too early and those people just dig their own graves. TV mets and more so the NWS has a hard job when it comes to what to tell the public at a certain juncture. It's hard to win.

Mets2695 wrote:Lookin good
http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

12z run dude

Yes it hasn't updated yet, but I'm just pointing out that it looks good even at 12z

oldtimer wrote:What adds insult to injury  We have all this cold air this late in the season The temps are going to be 10* below normal most of the upcoming week  Its too bad we could not get the big one we thought was on our doorstep  I can understand how members feel

It's very frustrating that's for sure and the sad part is the next storm will probably be a nice set up and it'll rain
because temps will be milder. Just frustrating. UGH !

Alright, in one word, update me on the modes so far

confusing

jsnowdome wrote:confusing

+1, NAM trended drier and south, RGEM came north a little bit, GFS came about 30 miles north, SREF backed south a bit, it's a.... well, this is pretty much what I say when I look at these models...

Frank_Wx wrote:Alright, in one word, update me on the modes so far

Cant do it in one word...

NAM- Way south, shafts philly
GFS- Went north, gives NYC 4-7" 10" is just to the south
UKIE- Slightly north
RUC- north
RGEM-sligtly north

Mets2695 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Alright, in one word, update me on the modes so far

Cant do it in one word...

NAM- Way south, shafts philly
GFS- Went north, gives NYC 4-7" 10" is just to the south
UKIE- Slightly north
RUC- north
RGEM-sligtly north

RUC aint in range yet.

What's NYC 2-4?

Additionally Met2995 has a model that is a solid hit the WRF.

Abba701 wrote:What's NYC 2-4?

Right now yes....and a few hours ago that was almost generous lol.

Joe Snow wrote:Additionally Met2995 has a model that is a solid hit the WRF.

It's basically the hi-res NAM I believe it runs on the same or very similar data.

We could see this north trend continue into 12z runs today. 4-8 inches is a good call for NYC still.