Re: January 2013 Long Range Thread

by **Math23x7** Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:49 am

Frank, I know the Euro did show a nice coastal low for late next week, but according to today's teleconnections, while the PNA will be positive at that time, the NAO and AO will be positive. Plus, just think of all the potential snowstorms that brought a lot of bark for NYC, but little to no bite. But we'll see as time progresses

by **amugs** Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:03 pm

Guys, now that the sorm - if you'd like to call it that - iso ver anyone have any info on Mon-Mon nights event? I see a possible icy mix to rain or snow to ice event I am hearing from the mets and on other forums. What's the info on this timeframe? Thanks. Mugs

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:26 pm

mugs, looks like snow at the onset around noon, it's going to be close for us here in the north, I don't know how much rain we are going to get, if it does, it might freeze as it gets dark. We are forecast to go up from freezing Monday am to 36 at the pm rush hour, but I don't think we will get that warm...

by HeresL Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:57 am

I am with mugs in wondering just how much precip will fall Monday. I'm only forecast to hit 32 as a high. TWC says wintry mix....

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 26, 2013 8:54 am

There is not a lot of precip Monday, less than .25" total, so whatever we get will be light, just hope it's not freezing rain. The ground will still be frozen and I see different temps at different levels aloft. Guess we will get a better feel for temps by tomorrow.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:11 pm

If you're looking at the long range and just seeing dry/cold after the midweek rain storm, don't get discouraged. I see a lot of northern stream energies diving down from Canada, and it won't be much for one to amplify and maybe get a Miller B threat going.

This won't show on the models until sometime early next week, consistently.

by **Snow88** Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:22 pm

GFS has some light snow at hour 150

by **HectorO** Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:08 pm

Man, the fluctuation in temps starting now through next week is nuts. Next week has 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s in some areas. I guess thats why some people are getting sick.

by **Snow88** Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:06 am

0z GGEM for Feb 2

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:53 am

HectorO wrote:Man, the fluctuation in temps starting now through next week is nuts. Next week has 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s in some areas. I guess thats why some people are getting sick.

Yea, lol. A cutter will most likely raise heights along the coast bringing 50's and 40's, then a rapid invasion of arctic air comes in. Gotta keep an eye on a clipper system that could develop offshore as a coastal storm. Whoever sees snow from that, and I think someone will, it will most likely be a high ratio snowfall again like we just saw.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:04 am

6z GFS looks like a few decent chances for snow throughout the run. Come on, one of this bigger storms has to materialize, right? Right? confused

by **Snow88** Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:18 pm

12z GGEM shows high ratio light snows again for the coast at 132 hours.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:29 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:6z GFS looks like a few decent chances for snow throughout the run. Come on, one of this bigger storms has to materialize, right? Right?

We can only hope. Pretty pathetic winter so far, although its been pretty cold

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:34 pm

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 5 69617_499182553466842_66912142_n

Please get into phase 1..

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:43 pm

I like the February 6th-12th time frame for a snow storm. GFS shows one around the 6th.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:45 pm

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 5 Moo10

Moo.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:09 am

Really hoping that by the weekend models start showing promise of a -NAO developing with a +PNA in the medium to long range. Or else...we will struggle with snowfall the rest of the winter.

by **HectorO** Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Really hoping that by the weekend models start showing promise of a -NAO developing with a +PNA in the medium to long range. Or else...we will struggle with snowfall the rest of the winter.

Maybe after the first week of February things will change a bit. Temps look to be going back to average in my area for this week/ end of the week.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:02 pm

The MJO differences between the EURO and GEFS are astounding...

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 5 NCPE_phase_21m_full

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 5 ECMF_phase_51m_small

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:16 am

I know everyone is concentrated on the Godzilla storm tomorrow, but there may be another coastal storm next weekend. Keep that in the back of your minds

by **amugs** Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:35 am

How about next Thursday - these weekedn storms are cutting into my r&r time kid - not your fault - I love the work you do and highly respect yuor factual information and opinions. Keep it up. I guess this is why they call Feb the snow month for us!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 09, 2013 9:07 am

Watch Presidents Day..

by **amugs** Sat Feb 09, 2013 9:15 am

Oh boy another blockbuster presidents day storm - the real days 11-12 you mean or the days we celebrate 18-19?? That is the historical side to my teaching in me as well - HAHA. Will do. We haven't had one in a sometime - 2003 if I recall correctly? Great work kid. Very Happy

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