Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[algae888]

00z gfs ...2n storm

[algae888]

ooz gfs 1st storm...


cmc 1st storm..,

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014111100/I_nw_g1_EST_2014111100_075.png

both are north of previous runs, interesting

[algae888]

[Frank_Wx]

GGEM's temp profiles seem to be off to me. Old GFS returns the snow showers to the area on Friday, new GFS has it out to sea.

The 2nd system is a hit on both versions of the GFS. Looks like a rain to snow event verbatim.

[algae888]

ggem has precip starting earlier. early evening thurs with temps in the low 40's. so could start as rain but should turn to snow for most places. good trends tonight

[Frank_Wx]

2nd storm getting a little interesting now...

[Frank_Wx]

EURO really honking at day 10, though the day 7 threat is still one to watch. Day 4 event looks pretty bland.

[Frank_Wx]

Latest CFS for Met. Winter looks good

[carvin1079]

Looks good to me hey frank don't really post but been following yall since 7 online chatI love the next 5 months

[jmanley32]

Frank the 00z Euro shows almost a foot in the first 6 hrs at 240 hrs, and that thing has barely gotten started, if it continues to trend as strong and big as it looks could this be the MECS or even more that sroc was hoping for.  Are there any ignals that the other models may catch on?  I have not seen much.

[jmanley32]

Frank what is the wxbell link to that image you posted on 2nd storm, I cannot seem to find that.  Yeah that does look good benchmark storm, has frozen heavier snow all the way down to me, I would be right on the RS line, but as I said last year many times I make it on the snow side, as I have been driving home from down south of yankee stadium and had rain or rain/snow mix only to quickly change to heavy snow only 8 miles away.

[Artechmetals]

Jman I posted last night wanted to know why are pro mets forcasting temps in the mid 40s thru next Tuesday ? Thought everyone was saying temps were going to be in the mid to upper 30s what happened

[Frank_Wx]

Looks good to me hey frank don't really post but been following yall since 7 online chatI love the next 5 months

Welcome, glad you are here. 

Frank the 00z Euro shows almost a foot in the first 6 hrs at 240 hrs, and that thing has barely gotten started, if it continues to trend as strong and big as it looks could this be the MECS or even more that sroc was hoping for.  Are there any ignals that the other models may catch on?  I have not seen much.

Too early to tell Jman. You know me, I like to take it one storm at a time. I won't give out any real analysis until 4-5 days before an event. 

Jman I posted last night wanted to know why are pro mets forcasting temps in the mid 40s thru next Tuesday ? Thought everyone was saying temps were going to be in the mid to upper 30s what happened

That's not true. This weekend is supposed to be 40's. The 30's are for early next week, but areas north and west of NYC are most likely to see that. Not sure CPK gets into the 30's as highs next week yet, but it's possible.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank what is the wxbell link to that image you posted on 2nd storm, I cannot seem to find that.  Yeah that does look good benchmark storm, has frozen heavier snow all the way down to me, I would be right on the RS line, but as I said last year many times I make it on the snow side, as I have been driving home from down south of yankee stadium and had rain or rain/snow mix only to quickly change to heavy snow only 8 miles away.

I took it from someone but look for something that says composite radar in the temp/precip section

[Artechmetals]

Thanks Frank

[skinsfan1177]

I don't know if any of these systems will pan out for my area for snow but one things seems we are in for one heck of a winter if all holds up with the pattern. One thing I don't want is to get snow early to have none come December and Jan. and feb. so with that said looking forward to these nect couple weeks this board is excited and im glad to be apart of it.

[Dunnzoo]

Jman I posted last night wanted to know why are pro mets forcasting temps in the mid 40s thru next Tuesday ? Thought everyone was saying temps were going to be in the mid to upper 30s what happened

Even though the cold air mass is moving in and moderating when it gets here, it's funny they consider the 40's "Arctic". what are they going to say when we are in the 20's? All I can say is I'm glad the cold is coming, with the precip we've been having every week we're bound to get the white stuff soon enough. Just can't keep getting excited about the models more than a few days out, so many variables still.

[Frank_Wx]

GFS has snow showers for this Friday and more snow early next week. Including the huge storm mid week next week. I smell a blog coming soon, maybe tomorrow night

[rb924119]

Yeah Frank I saw that too. There's DEFINITELY a signal there, of course there's uncertainty, but it's even in the ensembles which is somewhat alarming for this stage of the game. I can only recall a few storms that have had this consistency this far out, and the first one that comes to my mind was the Christmas Day blizzard of 2002 which gave me 32" of snow in about an 18-20hr period. However, that was a classic Miller-B, whereas this one seems to be a true Miller-A as of now. Not saying that is going to happen, or even a possibility because it's wayyyy too early, but simply commenting.

[jmanley32]

Frank I have had little time to look at everything, where is the consistency showing up with the possible major storm next week?  The Euro has had it for two runs now, eager to see what 12z says today, GFS doesn't go that far out except new one and I am still wait on wxbell to load to 240.  Which ensembles rb are you talking about?  This could be very exciting, and IF plays out, yes Frank I know you, you do wait till its much closer before specifics, but hey I ask in case you may know something I do not see.  Will be looking for your blog in the coming days. Guess I better pick up my snow gear for the car soon, just in case.  I only wih our job cared for our safety, let me just say this they wanted us in for Sandy!  So  doesn't matter if its a blizzard and no trains I will still be expected to be at work.

[algae888]

I know its a long way off but look at that set up. HP over great lakes and a low off the NC coast. 850's are plenty cold.



so are 2 meter temps. WOW! but we still have to get through the first two. I cant believe its only nov 11th!!!

[jmanley32]

Seriously Al, getting a early start, I just hope this is a trend through DJF!  That system around 240 is nuts, would get buried all way to coast!

[rb924119]

I'm looking at the trends/location of the general precipitation patterns, and both the EURO and GFS have it in the Gulf coast states for multiple successive runs now. Specifics such as track cannot be worried about, but the fact that both models are showing similar development in the same time frame is what I like to reference as a "strong signal". Whether it goes inland, up the coast or out to sea is unknown right now, but there is most likely going to be a storm SOMEWHERE during the 8-10 day period. That's all.

[jmanley32]

Got it rb, thanks

[Math23x7]

GFS has snow showers for this Friday and more snow early next week. Including the huge storm mid week next week. I smell a blog coming soon, maybe tomorrow night

The "Old GFS" has the big coastal storm at hr 240.

The "Parallel GFS" has a low pressure system moving through Lake Superior during that same time period bringing 850 mb temps to +4 Celsius for NYC

[algae888]

I do not know if this should go into the long range thread as it is less than 3 days out. cmc for Friday...

[algae888]

cmc is warm for storm #2...

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