Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[jmanley32]

Wow that is a big difference. Ok we will wait and see maybe we get surprised with first with some light snow.

[Frank_Wx]

H5 does not look great for the 2nd storm we are watching for early next week. 12z GFS shows the western ridge too far off the coast, High in an unfavorable location, and too much phasing taking place around the Great Lakes forcing heights to rise along the east coast. Scott has pointed out the unfavorable look at H5. Still ways to go though...

By the way, 12z GFS is a miss for Friday. EURO has snow showers still.

[algae888]

cmc says yes for Friday. however it looks like rain to snow.








steve d says he is not using gfs right now until they finish with updated model

[Frank_Wx]

12z GGEM looks like New GFS for 2nd system...progressive and no phasing. No storm.

As Al pointed out, shows a rain to snow scenario for Friday. The 12z GEFS members show snow for Friday as well. At least half of them.

[aiannone]

This is from DT FWIW:

** NOTIFICATION ** Overall pattern is BUILDING towards 3 Winter events (accumulating snow Ice . rain ) for the eastern half of the US NOV 15-28

1.... NOV 16-17-18 for OHIO valley Interior Middle Atlantic new much of New England ( gnore 12z GFS run on this ...go with ecmwf)

2 NOV 21-22... snow Ohio valley Interior Mid Atlantic Much of New england rain KY NC into se states

3.. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN develops... more data shows big Low crashing into Calif bringing in much need rains to central south calif
( hello el nino) NOV 18-22... But with cold air still in place southern jet stream Lows over CALIF AZ may become winter storm for East coast AROUND NOV 25

[jmanley32]

Changed ur name huh? That's interesting. Will have keep watch.

[aiannone]

Yea, that was like my 12yr old username when I started posting on weather forums lol. It was time to change it to the username I use for almost all my professional accounts now haha

[nutleyblizzard]

***UPDATE ON EL NINO*** Latest readings report continued warming in the central and western sections of our EL Nino. Area 3: +0.9, area 3.4: +0.8, area 4: 0.9. Areas 1@2 have cooled to +0.5. That's a good development, which only strengthens my belief that a western/central weak to possible borderline moderate EL Nino is well in hand.

[Analog96]

WOW Imagine several THREATS at accumulating snow in November.

I said threats... not certainties.. first threat Thu night-Fri...

[Frank_Wx]

EURO for storm #1: some light snow flurries / showers

EURO for storm #2: coast is grazed with some rain, out to sea

EURO now develops a storm #3 for mid-week next week

A lot to watch....

[Frank_Wx]

This was the monster storm EURO had brewing in the day 10 range...

[Sunflowers138]

Does that "monster" bring snow to the interior?

The family and I are headed to Hersheg, PA next week and I'm thinking we will see snow!

[Frank_Wx]

Does that "monster" bring snow to the interior?

The family and I are headed to Hersheg, PA next week and I'm thinking we will see snow!

It looks like it would. The model stops at 240 hours, so no way of knowing.

[Frank_Wx]

In response to the cold next week...

[Sunflowers138]

Thanks Frank! I will be following all of you guys (and girls) here to see what kind of weather we can expect since things change all the time.

[jmanley32]

Frank that system at 240 looks CRAZY! Of course so had some of the runs for the first two so we shall see. I know there is no real answer to this at over 240 hrs out but is there a possibility that if that hige storm transpirted it would bring snow to the coast too? That is around the 20th, what are the temp profiles at that time? I still think we have a shot with the 2nd storm but its looking less likely. The third looks beastly, was it on long range GFS/CMC?

[jmanley32]

If that Euro storm happens and the temps are as progged here everyone is in for a clobbering, ugg 10 days to go (well 5 before we get a better idea).

[sroc4]

"Weather" any of these November storms hit or not could you imagine if it was this active with the teles as perfect as the are all winter long? Man some of the analogue years and the current observations hint that it just might. It's going to be nuts!

[jmanley32]

sroc, I am pumped and ready to go.  Just won't enjoy digging out the cars and trying to find parking spots but hey I am a snow weenie and when its blasting snow thats the last thing I am thinking about.  I hope that Euro #3 comes to fruitation ohhh baby looks bada++. Man Euro ensemble showfall stamps have almost half with a huge amount of snow across the country by 25th (yes I know not very useful but they are in terms of how many agree) Some are beyond fantasy like #32 and 47. OMG

[devsman]

Not gonna lie. That euro is sexy.

[jmanley32]

devsman you wanna see something really sexy from the 00z Euro check out the 15 day control.....

Of course this is pretty darn far fetched and fantasy (I will flip if it actually happened) but I do not think we have even had a model show this much snow total in November even suggested.  Not to be taken seriously (But I hope so lol)

[Sunflowers138]

Ohhh jman, sooooooo many pretty colors on that fantasy map!

[jmanley32]

I do however have a feeling if the Euro and other models come on board to what the Euro showed at 240 we could be in for quite a storm, where the snow line sets up is something that may not be known until the day of.  Seen it before turn out that way.

[devsman]

I got married 2 years ago on nov. 16th. First came sandy then came the snow storm the first week of november. As i was Moving into my house less than 2 weeks before i got married, 8 inches of heavy wet snow fell on us. My power lines were 8 feet off the ground. If that can happen, the euro can happen. Believe.

[Artechmetals]

Hey people , was watching lee what happened to the temps that were forecasted ? He was showing temps in the mid 40s thru Tuesday of next week

[algae888]

00z gfs ...2n storm

[algae888]

ooz gfs 1st storm...


cmc 1st storm..,

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014111100/I_nw_g1_EST_2014111100_075.png

both are north of previous runs, interesting

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