Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[rb924119]

Mugs I saw that ahahaha dear God save us all........

[Frank_Wx]

Oh boy here comes the media hype of the PV --watch Social media explode now.

http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20141106/downtown/polar-vortex-headed-for-chicago-next-week-meteorologists-say

This makes me sad.

[jmanley32]

: )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyQNhnshyZM

[jmanley32]

Yes things look good. multiple threats between now and thanksgiving. I couldn't help myself with the above video, was first thing that came to mind when I read that, ugg let the PV hype start.

[amugs]

Oh boy here comes the media hype of the PV --watch Social media explode now.

http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20141106/downtown/polar-vortex-headed-for-chicago-next-week-meteorologists-say

This makes me sad.

Oh don't be sad Frankie, turn that frown upside down kid and eat some M&M's you'll be fine.

Social Media sucks and I cannot wait for the snow maps to be posted - t minus 36 hours.
Okay can someone explain to me the GFS parallel system - is it better resolution? higher data input?

There are three possible waves I see on the models with the last being the potential but I see flakes flying within the next week timeframe.

I for one am not taking the models verbatim this far out as most of us here know but we are looking at he pattern set up that is falling into place. I see it as a golden opportunity to prime us for the winter ahead and this pattern gives us a glimpse like last years of what is to come. November 12th the first flakes flew in our area and I had a light dusting on that night - a good chance for the same to happen again this year (give a couple days if need be).

[HectorO]

Next Friday/Saturday is looking interesting.... Far out right now but still. And next week some of the days are going to be clear blue skies so lets take into consideration that some of those temps will be higher than expected.

[SoulSingMG]

The Euro is showing crazy amounts of snow on the ground across the U.S. by next Monday (the 17th) -- would be something else if it came to fruition.

[Frank_Wx]

The time period between November 15th-20th is going to bring the threat for a couple of storms. The latter being a potentially stronger storm. For the storm on the 15th, I feel pretty good about our first flakes of the season even though there may be no accumulation. It may be mixed in with rain, too. It's still too early for specifics, but next Friday into Saturday could be our first widespread snow shower event.

[Dunnzoo]

I see a lot of sleepless nights in the next week....

[Sunflowers138]

Can someone post the snow map just for some giggles?

[Frank_Wx]

Can someone post the snow map just for some giggles?

Not really a model showing a snowstorm. But it shows a storm just off the coast with cold air in place.

[algae888]

gfs has off the charts epo. this winter noaa is going to have to use bigger charts.

[algae888]

new charts for ao too! ao shows no signs of hitting bottom it just keeps falling.

[SoulSingMG]

Can someone post the snow map just for some giggles?

The map I referred to is the snow cover Euro one. But I'm on my iPhone and still can't figure out how to post images from it yet on here.

[jmanley32]

I am assuming this is a good thing Al? Soulsing, yes 12z Euro has more than half the country with some type of snow. Which would be nuts for November, new GFS too.

[algae888]

1050 mb HP coming into U.S. next week. WOW!

[Sunflowers138]

No problem Soul... your map was the one I was curious to see. :-)

[jmanley32]

sunflower, I could post the map but its pointless because the snow maps are going to change day to day. You really cannot put much merit to them that far out. Once things become more certain trust me WE all will be posting snow maps.

[Frank_Wx]

If you remember I said this last year...extreme is not always good for us. A pattern that is too extreme, such as what we're seeing with the EPO these next 2 weeks, would result in storm tracks to our south since the PV would get too far south. It's not always the case, but the chance of it happening increases.

[amugs]

If you remember I said this last year...extreme is not always good for us. A pattern that is too extreme, such as what we're seeing with the EPO these next 2 weeks, would result in storm tracks to our south since the PV would get too far south. It's not always the case, but the chance of it happening increases.

Oh yes and how we all cried from Feb 14th until March 22nd!!! Bone dry with a strong biag of a PV sitting just to our north!

[SoulSingMG]

@NWSWPC: 'THERE IS SOME MULTI-SOULTION SUPPORT FOR A WAVE OF SOME IMPORT THAT COULD COME FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO PRODUCE SNOW IN THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND DAY 7.'

[jmanley32]

Frank I can't picture you crying, if all those possible storms miss us to the south (which I just cannot see happeneing , or more wishing they do not) I want a animated gif as your banner with you crying lol, jk.

[jmanley32]

soul where did u see that, not in upton discussion.

[jmanley32]

I also checked the twitter of wpc and I do not see it there either, about 15-20 of the Euro snow ensembles bring moderate to significant snow totals to the area at the 9 day mark, still way off but I like what I see.

[Frank_Wx]

EURO Ens mean showing light snow next weekend

[jmanley32]

There were some ensemble gut busters too though (Hey but if push comes to shove i'll take 1-3 inches, in November more than usual! I am interested to see if these maps hold up at all though? So far Euro maps have been consistent with a l;ittle or a lot of snow in this time frame, we wait, yes dunzoo, sleepless week coming up especially if a coastal becomes a possibility, a few inches of snow won't keep me up past the GFS at night, being a new father I get little sleep as it is lol.

[amugs]

@NWSWPC: 'THERE IS SOME MULTI-SOULTION SUPPORT FOR A WAVE OF  SOME IMPORT THAT COULD COME FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO PRODUCE SNOW IN THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND DAY 7.'

Where is this from Soul or is this a troll to get the juices going??

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