Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[Snow88]

Patience my friends







Euro is the only one that sends the MJO into the COD

[amugs]

Typhoon is expected to slow down and reach super status. Big question is whether or not it recurves

The link I posted last night has it like you said becoming a pretty intense typhoon which is pretty rare at this stage of the season from what I have read and it shows it slowly taking a turn to the NE once it slides by the Philippines but we shall see.

[amugs]

AO


NAO


PNA


They (charts) concur with the fact that the US is flooded with PAC air and keeps us about +2-3 degrees (I hope) ABOVE NORMAL for the first half of the month and then we start to see some winter effects after that as per this charts - we'll see.

[Snow88]

People need to be patient. Most of the outlooks that I have seen had a warm start to December with a gradual change to colder weather as the month went on. Winter should commence by late December according to most of the outlooks.

[amugs]

People need to be patient. Most of the outlooks that I have seen had a warm start to December with a gradual change to colder weather as the month went on. Winter should commence by late December according to most of the outlooks.

Tony as depicted in the charts i just posted.

[Snow88]

People need to be patient. Most of the outlooks that I have seen had a warm start to December with a gradual change to colder weather as the month went on. Winter should commence by late December according to most of the outlooks.

Tony as depicted in the charts i just posted.

Models usually have a tough time with pattern changes. I wonder if they are going through it now since all of the models don't show anything good for the long range. Looks like a slow and nice transition should happen by mid month based off those charts.

[jmanley32]

12z CMC still insisting on 6-10 inches of friggin rain 5-8 day, wonder where it is getting its data from as its completely on its own.

[HectorO]

LOL, this is the good and bad thing of technology. You can look a few weeks out and see how things are setting up and be disappointed if you love winter. Only December 2nd and are already calling half the month or even more done with. Most will have to wait at the end of the month. Too bad its not like the early 1900s. Element of surprise must have been nice.

[aiannone]

What boring pattern are you guys talking about lol?! JKJKJK. I guess Vermont never fails to get snow, regardless of the pattern. Look at my forecast lol. NWS Burlington seems really intrigued for Monday with a 70% chance of snow already!

Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 23. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Friday Night A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South wind around 6 mph.

Saturday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Light north wind.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Calm wind.

Sunday Night A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind.

Monday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Light southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[HectorO]

What boring pattern are you guys talking about lol?! JKJKJK. I guess Vermont never fails to get snow, regardless of the pattern. Look at my forecast lol. NWS Burlington seems really intrigued for Monday with a 70% chance of snow already!

Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 23. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Friday Night A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South wind around 6 mph.

Saturday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Light north wind.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Calm wind.

Sunday Night A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind.

Monday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Light southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

My fiend lives in Vermont. Forgot what town but she got like 1.5/2feet of snow thanksgiving. Too many things factor weather in the mid Atlantic.

[aiannone]

Here is the snowmap from the 12z GFS for it lol



EURO

[jmanley32]

Ahhh grrr go away Alex lol, of course your going to see snow before us! That looks nice. Those maps can be overdone but looks like u will get snow. Our days will come and when we get our coastals and u get nada , trust me Ima gonna brag to you lol. All in good fun my friend.

[aiannone]

Ahhh grrr go away Alex lol, of course your going to see snow before us!  That looks nice.  Those maps can be overdone but looks like u will get snow.  Our days will come and when we get our coastals and u get nada , trust me Ima gonna brag to you lol.  All in good fun my friend.

Haha hopefully i will get the best of both worlds when I'm home for a month in Late December into January

[algae888]

just to refresh every ones memory. last dec. we finished 1* above normal for CP after a below normal (-2.7*) for nov). the first six days of last dec. were all above normal. we then had a cold shot for about 10 days with one moderate snowfall of 5" and two minor ones (less than 2"). after that we had no snow for rest of month(18th-31st). in fact we toasted from the 19th to 23rd (16* above normal) it was 71* on dec. 22th.(would love to go back to posts and see what people were saying about that! including me!lol). we had 4 rain storms of at least a half inch and finished with 4.85". we all know what happened next.

[sroc4]

Typhoon is expected to slow down and reach super status. Big question is whether or not it recurves

Mark my words...IF this typhoon recurves you watch how different the LR model out put will look at soon as the models catch on to it.  Its going to be 180.  When Nuri was forecasted to recurve in early Nov. not one model accurately showed what actually ended up happening in the LR for the month of Nov until Nuri or its remnants were well up into the N Pac.  IMHO this system is the trigger.  And as soon as it figures out what it wants to do we will see how the models flip.   Plus the Stratospheric warming actually taking place right now looks to good.   Remember..............wait for it.........
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_vssdys8lk

[HectorO]

just to refresh every ones memory. last dec. we finished 1* above normal for CP after a below normal (-2.7*) for nov). the first six days of last dec. were all above normal.  we then had a cold shot for about 10 days with one moderate snowfall of 5" and two minor ones (less than 2"). after that we had no snow for rest of month(18th-31st). in fact we toasted from the 19th to 23rd (16* above normal) it was 71* on dec. 22th.(would love to go back to posts and see what people were saying about that! including me!lol). we had 4 rain storms of at least a half inch and finished with 4.85". we all know what happened next.

True. What happened next was I got snow on Christmas eve. And it went crazy from there on out.

[sroc4]

Its amazing how the energy associated with that little swirl in the SW Pac could potentially have such a huge impact on the entire weather pattern over the entire continent of N America.  I really hope she recurves. Talk about the butterfly affect

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/equirectangular=-168.69,24.13,512

[sroc4]

Just now on FB from Larry Cosgrove.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

The above link show animation of frames containing Typhoon Hagupit, which I believe will become a Super Typhoon (i.e. Category 5) before striking the central Philippines this weekend.


Both the GGEM and ECMWF smash the giant storm through the Visayas into Vietnam. The GFS series seems to hint at full recurvature before hitting the archipelago, but loses the system (probably due to shear and absorption by prevailing southwest flow aloft into the sub-Aleutian vortex).

Bottom line: while a track westward is suggested, the gain in latitude of the gyre is telling me that a turn northward into Luzon and then east of Japan is still possible. And such a motion could have huge downstream impacts on North America (although no computer model is showing such a scenario). We should know within 48 hours where Hagupit is going, short term and long term.

But to all of my friends in the Philippines (such as Tacloban, Cebu City, Bacalod, this means you)...you need to keep an eye on this system. Because this feature is going to hit hard even if it does not make "the turn" into early winter history for the U.S....

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

What boring pattern are you guys talking about lol?! JKJKJK. I guess Vermont never fails to get snow, regardless of the pattern. Look at my forecast lol. NWS Burlington seems really intrigued for Monday with a 70% chance of snow already!

Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 23. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Friday Night A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South wind around 6 mph.

Saturday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Light north wind.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Calm wind.

Sunday Night A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind.

Monday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Light southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

My fiend lives in Vermont. Forgot what town but she got like 1.5/2feet of snow thanksgiving. Too many things factor weather in the mid Atlantic.

I'm 50 miles from the center of NYC and I've had a foot already. I've been ok with the pattern.

[Artechmetals]

Sroc , if that typhoon does not recurve does that mean we put a knive into winter and kiss it goodbye . I'm not really understanding what the outcome means . Can someone explain

[aiannone]

Moderately snowing here at Lyndon State in NERN VT! Temp 24

[Frank_Wx]

Sroc , if that typhoon does not recurve does that mean we put a knive into winter and kiss it goodbye . I'm not really understanding what the  outcome means . Can someone explain

Recurving typhoons have a ripple effect on our upper level pattern here in North America. What happens is the jet stream gets reinvigorated, in a sense, and there is a faster upper air flow filled with waves of energy. Downstream, which consists of the central and eastern U.S., we are likely to see extreme weather with a large dip in the polar jet stream (also known as a trough).

Remember Typhoon Nuri back in early November and how that storm recurved? Well, look what happened. About 5-6 days later the eastern U.S. was under a trough and we were seeing temps. we do not normally see until January. The PV literally sank south in response to the extreme blocking that occurred in the Pacific.

In other words...recurving typhoons = trough's in the eastern U.S. with possible extreme weather.n

[Frank_Wx]

Moderately snowing here at Lyndon State in NERN VT! Temp 24

Nice! Move this to the December Obs. thread

[jmanley32]

Artrch, what I took from sroc and from the post about cosgrove is IF the typhoon recurves it could lead to a historic winter. However if it does not I would not say stick a knife in the winter in the first week of December. Any of the gurus correct me if I am wrong but it seems silly to me as there have been so many changes to say the winter will suck just because the models show no good snowstorms in the 10 day, also that does not mean that will not change with the typhoon. I have a feeling it IS going to recurve, thats what they like to do kinda like off the east coast.

[Artechmetals]

Thanks for that explanation Frank !

[jmanley32]

Frank I can only hope you are right, do you think it will recurve? I am not too privy to the liklihood of that. There are systems forming off the EC so if we can get cold to move in from this typhoon e could have some snowstorms before xmas, do you see that as a possibility?

[Frank_Wx]

Artrch, what I took from sroc and from the post about cosgrove is IF the typhoon recurves it could lead to a historic winter.  However if it does not I would not say stick a knife in the winter in the first week of December.  Any of the gurus correct me if I am wrong but it seems silly to me as there have been so many changes to say the winter will suck just because the models show no good snowstorms in the 10 day, also that does not mean that will not change with the typhoon.  I have a feeling it IS going to recurve, thats what they like to do kinda like off the east coast.

Not 1 single re-curving typhoon will lead to a "historic" winter. There are too many other variables involved that need to line up right in order to get winter to be classified as historic. I honestly do not see this current typhoon doing much. The EURO and its ensembles track it to landfall and then it dissipates. Even though the GFS recurves it to a certain degree, it is still a weak system and I'm not sure it will have a dramatic effect on our jet stream. I think we have to look at other factors to try and get our winter pattern here.

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