Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:25 am

I see why the NWS is siding with the ensemble means, they all pretty much have something in the same vicinity versus the operationals which do not all (like GFS) even GEFS has a few hits.

by **aiannone** Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:07 am

Of course I am tracking next week's storm, but we are also tracking tomorrow night's event. Looks very similar to Tuesday Night-Wednesday's event here in interior Northern New England.
Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 Hires_16

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 Hires_16

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:03 pm

Holy crap CMC, warm huge rains (again showing 4+ inches and blazing winds), way too warm for snow but thats one heck of a storm and it stalls.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 12z_cm10

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 12z_cm10

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:04 pm

With regards to possible storm early next week, we are still in a wait and see. The GFS and CMC are both very consistent in their own way. GFS shows a storm, CMC does not. Latest 12z GFS is still out to sea while latest 12z CMC shows a bomb off the coast (all rain).

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f129

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f129

EURO still shows a storm but it is well off the coast, though some ensemble members still have it where the CMC does.

Wait and see for now. Just know potential exists.

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:06 pm

Huh Frank? CMC does show a storm GFS does not lol, dyslexia there?

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:07 pm

If that CMC verified rank would we really be looking at 6+ inches of rain and what near hurricane force gusts of wind?

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:09 pm

Whoops, yea...other way around. You can tell how tired I am. Haha

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:09 pm

Hey man me too, its cool obviously I understood ya being my post of the CMC was before yours. Thats a scary looking LP. If that were to be in the dead of winter OMG.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:12 pm

Too bad the CMC is an awful model. This will all depend on the timing of the northern stream and where the High positions itself. GFS/EURO not enthused.

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:12 pm

Or as you would say Madonne x10, I imagine though this system could still spell a lot of trouble with damaging wind rain and possible ice like you had mentioned although not in this run.

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:13 pm

Yeah well, I said earlier something between the Euro and CMC seems more likely. And the Euro got cranking for quite a few runs too. As you said its wait an see still 5 days out+ which as we know SOOOO much can and probably will change.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:00 pm

No thanks, Ill take no storm in this situation...

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:19 pm

Look how different H5 is with EURO and GFS at hour 105. Wow

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 Post-40-0-34042600-1417716965

I think EURO is about to show a storm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:20 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:20 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:21 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:22 pm

Rain for coast, snow inland

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:22 pm

Still a big storm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:22 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:23 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:25 pm

Alex gets a foot of snow in VT if EURO is right. Maybe 1-3 inches in NYC

by **algae888** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:28 pm

frank 5 days out how can the gfs be so different than euro cmc. which model are you leaning towards right now?

by **aiannone** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Alex gets a foot of snow in VT if EURO is right. Maybe 1-3 inches in NYC

Yea the EURO is a perfect track for NVT. We get crushed on this run. Too bad it's 5 days out lol
Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 Ecmwf_10

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:45 pm

Nice wxbell image for ya, Wonder why they both jumped so far east last night, any ideas Frank or just the waffling?

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 Euto_110

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 Euto_110

by **algae888** Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:24 pm

so we have gfs out to sleep oh I mean out to sea, cmc a coastal hugger with heavy rain and the euro east of cmc with some wintry impacts for at least some of our area. with such a long shot for snow what we can take as positives from todays runs is that the storm will be moving slow which could allow polar s/w interaction unlike last weeks storm, storm has good chance of significant intensification which can lead to dynamic cooling and that it will be east how far east we do not know yet.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:38 pm

That's also a decent run for the HV. Especially the northwest areas. A long way to go.

by **amugs** Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:57 pm

algae888 wrote:so we have gfs out to sleep oh I mean out to sea, cmc a coastal hugger with heavy rain and the euro east of cmc with some wintry impacts for at least some of our area. with such a long shot for snow what we can take as positives from todays runs is that the storm will be moving slow which could allow polar s/w interaction unlike last weeks storm, storm has good chance of significant intensification which can lead to dynamic cooling and that it will be east how far east we do not know yet.

CP good one!
After looking at the maps the GoofuS is just that. CMC is very aggressive and the Euro is in between which seems to be more of a realistic solution. Only time will tell but after looking at things if this closes off and we get some dynamics we can get good snow in the areas like we had eh last time with and I know some of you will laugh and say this never happens but some backlash snow that could accumulate as this pulls away and bombs out. Alex, i am not even addressing you up ether sorry but will say you are in a great position so far.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 Post-564-0-53762100-1417718902

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 34 Post-564-0-53762100-1417718902

This storm is gaining support and I know we are 4-5 days away but tings are getting really interesting even in this poor pattern - maybe it will help thing son the Atlantic Side - form a 50/50 block perhaps.

Hey at least we have something to track other than the miserable rain Saturday - low 40's to upper 30's and rain - shoot me know!!!

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