Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[jmanley32]

Opps sorry Frank lol, it is ugly I retract my post lol

Good Idea Frank me too, finals due 17th

[NjWeatherGuy]

Jeeze. talk about a rain storm around the 6-9th day (looks to be long duration so flooding probably will not be a issue).  It will change each run (euro shows about 2-3 inches) but MAN if we just had the cold, even Wxbell snow map picks up on that it will be rain.

6

6" of rain? Yikes

[Math23x7]

NOAA's 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks show a better chance of relative warmth from coast to coast than of relative cold.  I wonder how they will turn out:

[amugs]

NOAA's 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks show a better chance of relative warmth from coast to coast than of relative cold.  I wonder how they will turn out:

Mike,

I saw that on the news tonight and looked it up jesus the hole conus torches for God's sake but that should hopefully change the last two weeks.

[skinsfan1177]

Oh boy i hope we lock in that winter pattern by the end of month.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Hey Al, yeah doesn't even look all that promising inland, I am trying to take this in heed that its only beginning of December but the current trends have not been good for us and from wehat I have read about a page back things are not setting up good as it looks right now.  Of course this can all change in a heartbeat.  70 today just doesn't feel right at all, I'm sorry.

Frank FYI, the Euro does kinda show a coastal like system but it appears to come onshore from the east to west, bringing a lot of snow well inland about a few inches of rain for the coast.

Jman, I'm 40 miles north of you and I barely reached 50 today. The snow took a beating but it still cover the ground in most places. Hard to believe anyone was 70 today. That was some dividing line.

[amugs]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/pacific_mslp.html

Click on the link you will see the new typhoon heading towards Japan and pretty intense projection as well. 
Two LP go up to the GOA and look to cause it to negative and spike the PNA positive in about a week 

[Isotherm]

ECMWF weeklies look decent for later in December. Progression is what I'd like to see w/ the NW Asian ridge and S Canada ridge eventually pushing poleward and connecting over the top of the globe. This should yield a "circle" of higher than normal heights in the arctic by late December. Also note the retrogression of the GOA low into the Aleutians, another key to initiate the -EPO again. Temperatures may not respond immediately but the pattern looks to improve later this month. This would fit with analogs for the winter as well as stratospheric progression.

[Frank_Wx]

What's interesting is as awful as this pattern look the first 10-15 days of December, the northeast is still under mainly normal or below normal heights due to a cut-off trough (no cold air associated with it, though)

[Frank_Wx]

00z GEFS are in agreement with the OP on a very unfavorable upper air pattern to persist into mid-month. Warm Pacific air is flooding the country, verbatim.

[Math23x7]

Obviously it's only December and we still have a couple of months to go but let's just hope (from the snow lover perspective) that this doesn't spiral into a 2011-12 like pattern. I mean on February 11, 2012, after a forecast of a couple of inches busted miserably giving us just flurries, Frank posted a thread on the old 7-online chat board officially throwing in the towel on the winter with how things didn't work out. A part of me died on the inside at that time, but it was reality. I will say this however, If we're not going to have snow, I at least want the warmth, and March 2012 did just that with pleasure. March 2014 was the worst feeling when it was cold with only 0.1" of snow.

Now, maybe this December can turn out like December 1998 where the first 22 days were way above average (including 75 degrees on the 7th) and then a cold front occurred and we got a couple of inches of snow on the 24th, giving us a White Christmas. As a then-eight year old, it made me so happy .

[HectorO]

And to think, 2 weeks ago people got mad at me for saying that I hope this winter doesn't end up like 2011/12 lol. There were just similarities that I notciced and decided to speak about. For snow lovers it not looking so good. And frank some of the temps aren't normal for certain areas. I see a lot of mid 50s and some places high 50s into mid week next week.

[docstox12]

NOAA's 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks show a better chance of relative warmth from coast to coast than of relative cold.  I wonder how they will turn out:

Mike,

I saw that on the news tonight and looked it up jesus the hole conus torches for God's sake but that should hopefully change the last two weeks.

Could be Mother Nature reverting back to the mean after the cold November.If it's going to happen, let's get it out of the way in early to mid December rather than January.I like Isotherm's post in another thread where he states that if the above happened, a chance for a White Christmas would be greater.

[algae888]

doc agree with you 100%. even though meteorological winter started yesterday our winter really began on nov. 13th with that first wave of arctic air and some flurries. more than half our area is already above normal with snowfall totals. even in our snowiest and coldest winters there are lulls which I believe we are going through now. as for temps the next 10 days, as frank stated above, mostly near normal. for central park it's 48/37. I look at 3 weather sites acc wx, nws and twc and my highest temp is 51* for tomorrow. no other 50* days, mostly mid 40's. some on here must have mistaken forecast highs and looked at south Carolina. steve d has mentioned for a few days now how people are going to jump ship on this winter. boy was he right!!! doc even in this benign weather pattern you and I will still see some snow over the next 10 days. what more could you ask for at this point.

[docstox12]

Very true Al.

Many seasons, November through mid-December is mild or average with little or no snow.Many seasons I have seen the winter only get cranking after Christmas.

Math and Hector above mention that they are concerned we could be repeating a 2011-2012 pattern.Anything is possible at this juncture but as math pointed out, Frank waited until mid February to declare that winter busted.We still have over 2 months to get to that point so it's time to watch the atmosphere do it's thing the next month.We also have to see how the December indicator works out ("as Dec goes so goes the winter.").

[HectorO]

NOAA's 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks show a better chance of relative warmth from coast to coast than of relative cold.  I wonder how they will turn out:

Mike,

I saw that on the news tonight and looked it up jesus the hole conus torches for God's sake but that should hopefully change the last two weeks.

Could be Mother Nature reverting back to the mean after the cold November.If it's going to happen, let's get it out of the way in early to mid December rather than January.I like Isotherm's post in another thread where he states that if the above happened, a chance for a White Christmas would be greater.

My personal opinion is, if it's gonna snow and be cold, I rather have it in December because at least it's for a reason like the holiday season. January is just cruel. And the last 2 Christmas eves we've had snow in mahwah. Last year was like an inch and then year before like half an inch. Not much but it's nice to have it fall during the holidays. After that I'm through with it LOL.

[jmanley32]

CMC says we get absolutely crushed with an insane amount of rain (up to 10 inches!) and way up north gets 3+ feet or snow (sucks to the max!) But then again it IS the CMC showing two LP form and curve back inland in the 6-10 day. Still do not recall seeing this much rain in a 10 day in a loooong time on any models.

[Quietace]

CMC says we get absolutely crushed with an insane amount of rain (up to 10 inches!) and way up north gets 3+ feet or snow (sucks to the max!)  But then again it IS the CMC showing two LP form and curve back inland in the 6-10 day.  Still do not recall seeing this much rain in a 10 day in a loooong time on any models.

Yeah not happening.

[amugs]

AS Frank, Tom (Isotherm), Scott (Doc), Al, Doc and I have come to state that December is the transition month into our winter and we have seen mild, benign Decembers turn on a dime and it is all about the pattern and the signs - 2011/12 - no Nino, La Nina, no +PDO, a -PDO, are two telling signs IMO and people freak out and call winter cancelled if we do not have cold and snow in December o rteh models aren't showing anything. We have been totally spoiled by the last few winters and beyond. A great winter doesn't necessarily mean cold and snow from 12-1 until 3-21 ala 95-96 (epic) and the expectations are pretty far fetched - hey would I as a snow weenie love to see that - hell yes BUT the fact is we are not in the mini ice age of the 1600-1700's but in a period where yes it has been cold and snowy since since 2009-10 overall. I can remember many a rainstorm in December and the cold air dives in just after it passes but that is the beauty of nature sometimes - take it with a grain of salt and by no means do I think we cancel winter or say we have 2011-12 setting up - the signals IMO are not the same at all but I am not saying 95-96 either at this point either.

Sorry for the rant but every (good/great) pattern needs to reload folks - just like every great sports team and we are in the reloading period as we saw and knew would happen after the below normal and cold November pattern. Al pointed this out above and timing is good here - let us relax now and then reload around mid month - these take time like a fine bottle of wine!

Isotherm - hot cocoa with my homemade bailey's my friend!!

[Quietace]

AS Frank, Tom (Isotherm), Scott (Doc), Al, Doc  and I have come to state that December is the transition month into our winter and we have seen mild, benign Decembers turn on a dime and it is all about the pattern and the signs - 2011/12 - no Nino, La Nina, no +PDO, a -PDO,  are two telling signs IMO and people freak out and call winter cancelled if we do not have cold and snow in December o rteh models aren't showing anything. We have been totally spoiled by the last few winters  and beyond. A great winter doesn't necessarily mean cold and snow from 12-1 until 3-21 ala 95-96 (epic) and the expectations are pretty far fetched - hey would I as a snow weenie love to see that - hell yes BUT the fact is we are not in the mini ice age of the 1600-1700's but in a period where yes it has been cold and snowy since since 2009-10 overall. I can remember many a rainstorm in December and the cold air dives in just after it passes but that is the beauty of nature sometimes - take it with a grain of salt and by no means do I think we cancel winter or say we have 2011-12 setting up - the signals IMO are not the same at all but I am not saying 95-96 either at this point either.

Sorry for the rant but every (good/great) pattern needs to reload folks - just like every great sports team and we are in the reloading period as we saw and knew would happen after the below normal and cold November pattern. Al pointed this out above and timing is good here - let us relax now and then reload around mid month - these take time like a fine bottle of wine!

Isotherm - hot cocoa with my homemade bailey's my friend!!

Yeah we'll see, we may not see anything meaningful until after the new year.

[jmanley32]

Ace probable it won't, however never say never. Does the CMC still have the same bias to develop a low with every LP like in the summer with tropics? Just curious at this because its really the first time since summer that CMC has been the first to show a extreme event. Hey there is nothing else to watch heh, hopefully that will change and people do not lose hope. I think it was JB who said and people on here that temps changed on a dime for the fall in the long range. I'm going to tease here but imagine that 980mb low backed into cold air in the 8 day and brought us all a epic snowstorm : ) Is it going to happen? Less likely than the 10 inches of rain but hey we can dream. As for the rest of the winter I am a full believer that trends and climatology can and do play a part BUT also its a new year and anything can happen. No one expected Sandy, or a event ever like that, then 8 days before the models made me almost piss myself and it happened. SO lets keep our heads high, I checked (even though I know its not that accurate) the accuwxc long range and the trend is temps going down 2nd half of Dec into Jan. I think their temp forecasts can be a bit more based on something than say calling for 5 inches of snow in early Jan (which they are ha!, how could they possibly know that). However that is in Franks timeframe for a storm, hope it happens. We are not in the olden days of snowstorms all the time, however I think wx is getting more extreme and I am thinking we will have a couple epic storms this year and boring wx the remainder of the time but when that monster shows up on the models you know it will make up the whole winter!

[Frank_Wx]

Euro ensembles are hideous, though there are a lot of storms ejecting out of the STJ indicative of the El Nino. Again, if you're a winter weather lover take a break the 1st half of December and return around Christmas. 

[aiannone]

Euro ensembles are hideous, though there are a lot of storms ejecting out of the STJ indicative of the El Nino. Again, if you're a winter weather lover take a break the 1st half of December and return around Christmas. 

I actually don't mind that lol. It will give me a little time to focus on finals for the next two weeks, though Northern Vermont can surprise you sometimes. Even in the most hideous, warm patterns, we can get snowstorms lol

[Frank_Wx]

Agree Alex!

[Frank_Wx]

Typhoon is expected to slow down and reach super status. Big question is whether or not it recurves

[Snow88]

Patience my friends







Euro is the only one that sends the MJO into the COD

[amugs]

Typhoon is expected to slow down and reach super status. Big question is whether or not it recurves

The link I posted last night has it like you said becoming a pretty intense typhoon which is pretty rare at this stage of the season from what I have read and it shows it slowly taking a turn to the NE once it slides by the Philippines but we shall see.

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