Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[Guest]

And who is to say we couldnt see a repeat of 1888 anything is possible IMO.

Ahh yes, the good ol winter of 1888. I remember it well.

I used 1888 as a reference. Don't think it's going to happen that way. I don't even believe we'll get snow. My point is seeing those maps tugs at my heart while reality dictates my brain.

I need a 12 step program

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

LOL hector, yes me too, bout time for another : )

Jman:

I for one like when you post the maps.

We're all adults, we all know their mostly for fun this far out, so what's the harm in dreaming. I remember a few you posted a week ahead of time last March had some of us, the HV, in the 30-40 inch range. I don't think I saw a flake from any of them but it was fun to dream.

[jmanley32]

Exactly cp. Totally how I think about it.

[NjWeatherGuy]

If the foreign suite remains consistent than the GFS can pretty much be thrown out. Doesnt do well with complex cutoff storms and retrograding lows, it is important to note the CMC trended from a path similar to Sandy with enormous amounts of rain to a more progressive offshore soln so maybe the GFS is onto something but playing too much into its bias. Just watch foreign suite and see where they trend.

[HectorO]

Does anybody remember what year it was when we had that good snowstorm before Christmas like the 19th or 20th? I got like foot of snow. I believe I was like winter of 08/09or 09/10? I had a Mustang at the time, it's took me like two hours to dig my car out from work

[Frank_Wx]

If the foreign suite remains consistent than the GFS can pretty much be thrown out. Doesnt do well with complex cutoff storms and retrograding lows, it is important to note the CMC trended from a path similar to Sandy with enormous amounts of rain to a more progressive offshore soln so maybe the GFS is onto something but playing too much into its bias. Just watch foreign suite and see where they trend.

Agree Tom. I'm favoring a coastal storm at this point. Determining precip type will take time. I have an exam tomorrow so I'll look into this further tomorrow evening. P.s- you should come to the get together

[jmanley32]

NJ yeah the CMC was nuts with 10 inches of rain as I posted a day ago, backed off from that but still has snow for the area, but the majority to the east. Lots of time and watching. As long as you guys stay interested I will.

[NjWeatherGuy]

LOL, this is what I say to this : ) Pointless at this point but oh so beautiful, pretty colors.

Verbatim, that's not all snow. A large amount of Frz Rain and sleet. Wxbell counts that as snow accumulations. They really need to adjust the algorithms they use for their snow maps.

Accupro is a lot better but still makes mistakes, weatherbell seems the worst, overdoes ratios and everything.

[SoulSingMG]

Okay. I just happened to refresh Frank's wonderful blog here and saw like 10 new pages on the long range thread. I am trying to gain some semblance here lol, but after reading thru the thread I am still confused.

We are watching a typhoon who may turn north and throw the upper level pattern for a loop, in turn bringing us back to colder temps quicker...? There's a potential stalled rain storm for sun-mon and then another threat but maybe of the wintry nature come mid-week next week? Sorry, a lot has clearly changed from the quiet we were all expecting for the next couple weeks...

There is an ordinary rainstorm Saturday. Probably a washout. Sunday looks sunny. 

Monday-Tues is when the bigger storm would be. GFS is south and east with it, but I actually think the pattern calls for a storm on the coast like euro and ggem insist. Precip type is uncertain at this time. Favoring snow/ice for interior and rain for coast at this  time, though. 

Thanks for this, Frank! :-)

As for the typhoon, I still don't think it ends up recurving.  Too many mid level troughs and ridges passing to its north. It will probably stall a bit and die itself out.

[algae888]

00z gfs has us dry sunday onward no 2nd low

[Frank_Wx]

00z CMC is a major storm for eastern New England. Grazes our area. Looks like a triple phaser

[jmanley32]

Ya beat me to it Frank jeeze the CMC goes buck wild with a major storm to the east of us, 850s look colder, will it trend east or west? We will see, probably deepens too much, 972 is pretty crazy.

[Frank_Wx]

Note: HP to the north

[jmanley32]

HP to the north would mean blocking right? This is a nuts outcome especially if it comes west even a little. 850s look cold too.

[jmanley32]

Al I am tossing the GFS personally, JB even said when was the last time GFS showed a formidible storm 4-7 days out. CMC and Euro have been consistent on a bomb of a storm. This run is especially intense and oh so close, but yet so far.

[NjWeatherGuy]

This has new england bomb written all over it, as it stands setup not looking great for a huge storm for us here rain or snow, this is another trend east.

[jmanley32]

Well I guess no on the cold thing, even wxbell snow model has NO snow now lol, those things are really useless.

[jmanley32]

I am going to cape cod if this does like the system Alex went to last year, rain or snow it would be wild winds screaming (sadly I have a job and family and storm chasing isn't in the cards)

[NjWeatherGuy]

Seems they can always manage big storms up in NE no matter how terrible the pattern, screw them im bitter, hope it trends OTS and the GFS is right 

[jmanley32]

Why note hope a western trend that could happen too NJ, we have seen that before lol bitter

[Frank_Wx]

Seems they can always manage big storms up in NE no matter how terrible the pattern, screw them im bitter, hope it trends OTS and the GFS is right 

Track is not determined yet. While eastern NE is in a good spot, I still think our area will see impacts.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Because then we likely get a huge rainstorm that sits over us for days, it moves to the NE bombs and then new england still get hammered, im not interested in a nasty rainstorm especially if its gonna dump them with snow. Unless the storm bombs very early and can tap into some of thag cold locked in over canada were wet.

[jmanley32]

Frank just saw you on twitter on JB, didnt realize you were there, so you think this still bears watching for us or is NJ right in saying its trending east, because it did. But hasnt that been the thing to trend east then back west? I wanna see 00z Euro u staying up?

[Frank_Wx]

Depends on timing of phase, as is usually the case. Also exact positioning of HP.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Seems they can always manage big storms up in NE no matter how terrible the pattern, screw them im bitter, hope it trends OTS and the GFS is right 

Track is not determined yet. While eastern NE is in a good spot, I still think our area will see impacts.

Of course not, just thinking if it does come further west its more than likely going to be rain so its essentially a lose lose sitation for us as it appears now, cold air locked in over canada and gonna have to bomb early to drag it in.

[Frank_Wx]

Jman you can mainly find me here

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx

[Frank_Wx]

Seems they can always manage big storms up in NE no matter how terrible the pattern, screw them im bitter, hope it trends OTS and the GFS is right 

Track is not determined yet. While eastern NE is in a good spot, I still think our area will see impacts.

Of course not, just thinking if it does come further west its more than likely going to be rain so its essentially a lose lose sitation for us as it appears now, cold air locked in over canada and gonna have to bomb early to drag it in.

Rain or ice, I agree. But if it bombs out wind could also be an issue.

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