Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[Frank_Wx]

Jman you can mainly find me here

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx

[Frank_Wx]

Seems they can always manage big storms up in NE no matter how terrible the pattern, screw them im bitter, hope it trends OTS and the GFS is right 

Track is not determined yet. While eastern NE is in a good spot, I still think our area will see impacts.

Of course not, just thinking if it does come further west its more than likely going to be rain so its essentially a lose lose sitation for us as it appears now, cold air locked in over canada and gonna have to bomb early to drag it in.

Rain or ice, I agree. But if it bombs out wind could also be an issue.

[jmanley32]

True NJ, stay strong, remember what u said to me earlier. Its still many days out and lots could change, it certainly changed in terms of deepening, jeeze may be further N and E but as I said before could go either way, a trend even somewhat west would cause big problems with very high winds and unfortunently rain, but maybe it can tap into some colder air and we can get a gold mine.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Lets not get started with the JB again please... Ugh. Im not saying the track is anywhere close to set basically to sum it up its a less than ideal setup for frozen precip in our area, in fact as it looks now id argue it looks bad but there is plenty of time to change.

[jmanley32]

Frank I just followed you, thats what I meant I found your page, wow a triple phase thats insane. Yeah I see winds even over eastern LI hitting 40+ mph sustained, capr hurricane gusts, a shift 100 miles west would be big problems with wind for sure (if this solution happened of course). It keeps deepening more with each run on CMC and also Euro I believe, do you think the GFS is a score our out to lunch showing nada (which BTW I found amazing that there was absolutely nothing).

[jmanley32]

Ice and those high winds would be a disaster outside of city.

[Frank_Wx]

Regarding typhoon, 00z GFS gets it as far north as 20N then it just dies itself out



I'm watching for the development of a large cyclone in the NPAC by this weekend, actually.

[jmanley32]

At 108 hrs on 00z Euro it looks like the LP is going to form ots. Way east shift wow. Unless it does a loop back but thats pretty unlikely.

[jmanley32]

Wait, it looks like it may recurve west at 120.

[jmanley32]

Could change but WAY east and in line with CMC, maybe right about this being a NE coast system, unless it starts a west trend back which the models have been known to do. gn all : )

[Snow88]

Euro is close to something big for our area

[jmanley32]

Euro and CMC moved way east snow, verbatim snow map from earlier got cut down to a inch or two. wow

[algae888]

even though most of OP models are east with coastal low means are further north and west....
from nws disco...
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT TRACKS OFFSHORE DUE TO POTENTIAL PHASING
WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...ALL BEFORE PHASING WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK
PERIOD. THIS TRANSLATES TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE SUN INTO MON...OR LINGERS
OFFSHORE AND THEN RETROGRADES N/NE AND STRENGTHENS FOR THE EARLY
WEEK AFFECTING THE REGION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUSLY AMPLIFIED AND PHASED
ECMWF/GEFS/CMC MEANS...ALL OF WHOSE SPREAD INDICATE A NORTHWARD
BIAS AND CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR REGION TO BE AFFECTED BY A COASTAL
LOW IN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD.

[jmanley32]

Interesting. Well we shall see if the lp deepens in between the cmc and euro which would be about 980 something we still have a very strong storm. Any westward shift would bring back all the action. Nws also mentions some probability of ein d advisory on sat night into sun.

[jmanley32]

How is nne a retrograde did they mean nnw?

[docstox12]

Seems they can always manage big storms up in NE no matter how terrible the pattern, screw them im bitter, hope it trends OTS and the GFS is right 

They've got geography working for them being east and north of us.They catch the eastern bias storms, and they have colder air being north plus getting the stronger storm as it strengthens going by us.Just the breaks.Our area has always been tough to get big snowstorms being so close to the ocean.Mixing always a problem.I'm in the HV NY and I already see what being another 25 miles north of NYC where I used to be works out for snow.Much better.

[docstox12]

NWS seeing an inch of rain up here Fri-Sat and picking up something for Mon-Tues next week.They have me down for snow.Their model interpretation is a possible coastal next week.Frank thinks at this point there may be some effects here.Interesting to see how the models play out the next few days.LOL, I was writing off any chance for snow based on those temperature maps showing the next few weeks to torch but here we go!

[jmanley32]

I think we have seen the far East jump from the 12z yesterday and now we see some tree back west in the coming days imo. Precip type is obviously a issue and if this ends up being a wind and ice storm that spells major problems.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Seems they can always manage big storms up in NE no matter how terrible the pattern, screw them im bitter, hope it trends OTS and the GFS is right 

They've got geography working for them being east and north of us.They catch the eastern bias storms, and they have colder air being north plus getting the stronger storm as it strengthens going by us.Just the breaks.Our area has always been tough to get big snowstorms being so close to the ocean.Mixing always a problem.I'm in the HV NY and I already see what being another 25 miles north of NYC where I used to be works out for snow.Much better.

People only seem to remember when eastern New England makes out with these storms, however they get scrooed with rain often times and the last storm is the perfect example.

There was no snow in Boston, RI eastern CT and the cape from the November 26 storm just a cold rain for them, whereas places in our area saw almost a foot of snow.

There are many examples like this through the years the most recent and most extreme being the February 25, 2010 storm. We received 35 inches of snow in the HV from that event, NYC received 21 inches. Eastern NE including Boston, Providence, most of CT and the Cape received a pounding rainstorm. That eastern position can and does work both ways. We of course remember when we lose out not win out.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Things also have to be put in perspective vs the rest of the country.

NYC has had 3 snowfalls of 19.0 inches or above in the last 5 years. In the HV we've had at least 6 I'd have to go back and count but there's been a lot.

The ice box Minneapolis has had only 3 storms that big in 100 years of record keeping.

We've been doing OK. Of course myself and most others will always remember all the storms that got away. Like fishing right Doc and Sroc?

[jmanley32]

Low positions are more tightly clustered than yesterdays 12z.

[docstox12]

Seems they can always manage big storms up in NE no matter how terrible the pattern, screw them im bitter, hope it trends OTS and the GFS is right 

They've got geography working for them being east and north of us.They catch the eastern bias storms, and they have colder air being north plus getting the stronger storm as it strengthens going by us.Just the breaks.Our area has always been tough to get big snowstorms being so close to the ocean.Mixing always a problem.I'm in the HV NY and I already see what being another 25 miles north of NYC where I used to be works out for snow.Much better.

People only seem to remember when eastern New England makes out with these storms, however they get scrooed with rain often times and the last storm is the perfect example.

There was no snow in Boston, RI eastern CT and the cape from the November 26 storm just a cold rain for them, whereas places in  our area saw almost a foot of snow.

There are many examples like this through the years the most recent and most extreme being the February 25, 2010 storm. We received 35 inches of snow in the HV from that event, NYC received 21 inches. Eastern NE including Boston, Providence, most of CT and the Cape received a pounding rainstorm. That eastern position can and does work both ways. We of course remember when we lose out not win out.

Excellent analysis on this matter CP!

[docstox12]

Things also have to be put in perspective vs the rest of the country.

NYC has had 3 snowfalls of 19.0 inches or above in the last 5 years. In the HV we've had at least 6 I'd have to go back and count but there's been a lot.

The ice box Minneapolis has had only 3 storms that big in 100 years of record keeping.

We've been doing OK. Of course myself and most others will always remember all the storms that got away. Like fishing right Doc and Sroc?

CP, you've got that right about the fishing analogy,Pal. How many times I'd hook into a big bass only to have him break my line at the boat or shake off.Kind of like those big snowstorms forecasted a few days away that bust out.You think you have it but.................SKUNKED!

That's what makes big snowstorms so exciting, the suspense of living in this area.Will it bust OTS, mix or cut west into a massive soaker.......or BOXING DAY!

[docstox12]

Low positions are more tightly clustered than yesterdays 12z.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm.......Very interesting,this!

[jmanley32]

To note euro is much weaker than cmc which had lowest pressure at 972! I still personally think the gfs is otl but the 06z does now show a low far off shore. I think a result somewhere between intensity of euro and cmc and between the far west position yesterday and far east post on at 00z is what this I s going to look like.

[jmanley32]

I see why the NWS is siding with the ensemble means, they all pretty much have something in the same vicinity versus the operationals which do not all (like GFS) even GEFS has a few hits.

[aiannone]

Of course I am tracking next week's storm, but we are also tracking tomorrow night's event. Looks very similar to Tuesday Night-Wednesday's event here in interior Northern New England.

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