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11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

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11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map Empty 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:55 pm

I figured it will be easier to put my thoughts in a blog. I did some analysis. Here is my final call, but please read what I have to say in my blog especially below the snow map.

BLOG:

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/11/pre-thanksgiving-noreaster-to-bring.html

FINAL SNOW MAP:

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map Final_snow_map

I have timing and all that good stuff in the blog. Use this thread as observation as well!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:04 pm

12z EURO actually looks colder for the coast.

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:09 pm

H7 MUCH COLDER FOLKS - WOWWWEEEE!!!

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map Post-25-0-95411100-1416938529

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I figured it will be easier to put my thoughts in a blog. I did some analysis. Here is my final call, but please read what I have to say in my blog especially below the snow map.

BLOG:

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/11/pre-thanksgiving-noreaster-to-bring.html

FINAL SNOW MAP:

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map Final_snow_map

I have timing and all that good stuff in the blog. Use this thread as observation as well!

Hey Frank I find it interesting that you have 6-10 and 8-12 all the way down to the SW CT coast yet 5-15 miles south on the north shore of central-west LI not much more that 3". That's one heck of a cutoff.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:18 pm

Doc, I was just telling someone yesterday how I can never get CT right. Some tell me it's different from LI, some say otherwise. Who knows. Lol.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:19 pm

HOUSTON, WE HAVE LIFT OFF!!!! 1012mb closed circulation in the Gulf.


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:23 pm

Yea rb  is looks pretty potent

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:23 pm

I guess its not our storm Ace maybe next time once winter gets going.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:25 pm

I think the reason the 12z Euro came in colder, was it had more interaction with the northern stream.
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11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Guest Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:26 pm

Hey Frank,

Love the map and I'll take any snow in Nov. but just my 2 cents here...

in a matter of 10 miles (all around where Fairfield County, the 5 Boroughs, Southern Westchester and Nassau county come together) you have 4 different amounts converging. I think a more southwest to northeast gradient in amounts would make more sense for L.I. and Ct. based on what you have going on in central N.J. and eastern PA.

Thanks for all you do!!

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:30 pm

Nice map, too, Frank, I agree with it 100% (not because I live there, either :p). I've been looking at the jet and where it's modeled to be, and I would not be surprised to see intense banding set up further west than where it is being modeled, nor would I be surprised to see H7 close off earlier than expected with the significant amount of synoptic ascent from the jet entrance region.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:31 pm

Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:37 pm

Well amgs, on the 12Z EURO for hr 30 (1 PM Wednesday) at JFK airport (the NWS station closest to me) it is -0 Celsius at 700 mb, -2 Celcius at 850 mb, and -0 Celsius at 925 mb. At the surface, however it's at 38 degrees Fahrenheit...

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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:41 pm

Winter storm warning official now for me for 7-13 inches in HV NY.Looks like this is getting more solid as we get closer.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:53 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.
I hear ya! From my location, I'm in the 3-6 inch zone. A good safe bet. However, I believe in srocs snow map with it being a high bust potential standpoint. So many factors still unknown with a storm less than 24 hours away. My main concern is often with these dynamic events, is sometimes you will see a heavy snow band develop just to the west of the rain snow line. Another thing to look out for in future model runs is a stronger system which would pull in colder air sooner increasing snowfall rates. Just take a look at our developing storm in the gulf, It's really jacked. If either of those factors take place, I can easily see my totals double. I'm not proclaiming this will happen, just something to keep in mind. We have the 18z and 00z runs to go through- let's hope they keep trending colder and stronger. After that it will be nowcasting time, and by this time tomorrow we will be watching the radars with bated breath.
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:53 pm

My forecast for NE Bergen County: Wednesday: Rain before 10am, then snow. Temperature falling to around 34 by 3pm. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. North wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

So how can they not have me in a warning yet?

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  1.5"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:55 pm

12z NAM shows about 1.4" QPF IMBY with only the first frame of like .2" is rain the rest appears to be snow, difficult forecast
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Post by Quietace Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:56 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.
Agree 100%. Also Gave up.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:59 pm

Quietace wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.
Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

I can't believe this!! Lol, Shocked I really on you guys for the TRUTH!
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:01 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:My forecast for NE Bergen County: Wednesday: Rain before 10am, then snow. Temperature falling to around 34 by 3pm. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. North wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

So how can they not have me in a warning yet?

Zoo??

Severe Weather Alerts - Hillsdale, NJ
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning in effect from Wednesday, 7:00 AM EST until Thursday, 7:00 AM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:11 pm

Where did you get that mugs? I'm on their site and no mention of it for you or me....

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  1.5"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:17 pm

I have a watch for 2-4 issued at 945am? Come on Mt. Holly, this is too low and their map is terrible imo.
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:21 pm

Zoo - off the accuweather site which comes from NWS - that is strange

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:22 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Quietace wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.
Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

I can't believe this!! Lol, Shocked I really on you guys for the TRUTH!

Im with you Soul. Remember we are all amateurs on this site. Take a guess and throw in a CYA like I did. Smile

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:23 pm

I found some interesting beta maps on nws that shows max and minimum snow maps. Max is crazy with 15 inches in large area. Minimum is depressing but their normal map is most likely I will post later am mobile now.
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