Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:43 pm

Aww man watch was dropped for coastal areas to WWA, dang! Once they do that theres a little liklihood it will go back to a warning, or could it still?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:44 pm

This may be the first time my snow map (1-3 or 2-4) is lower than Upton (4-6) for the City.

by **Grselig** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:44 pm

What a great way to start Thanksgiving. Wayne now has a Warning!!!!!! Turkey football and snow.

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:44 pm

Its really a toss, I am really un the cusp of the WWA and WSW, thats just annoying.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Aww man watch was dropped for coastal areas to WWA, dang! Once they do that theres a little liklihood it will go back to a warning, or could it still?

I knew this would happen, I called it three hours ago lol. I haaaaate WWA's!!! Once I saw Upton lowered their amounts on that map, the WWA was coming right after. And it did. We won't get into warning criteria, J & R. Stinks.

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:47 pm

soul I believe I have seen wwa go to warnings at the last minute if conditions warrant, am I wrong Frank or is soul right?

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:50 pm

this is interesting, maps I was talking about earlier, minimum and max and current snowfall maps, so IMO we still have a chance at WSW if upper amounts look to come or even worse to remove all together. LI has nothing sorry sroc : ( I want everyone in on the action.

http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

by **docstox12** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:51 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
as i upload this upton jumped the gun on me, downgraded to advisory

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY...SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTY...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD
CHANGE TO PRIMARILY SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF RAIN MIXING IN EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.

LOL, friggin' hilarious picture!

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
soul I believe I have seen wwa go to warnings at the last minute if conditions warrant, am I wrong Frank or is soul right?

Of course it has and can happen, J. But I don't believe it will with this storm. There's just too much going against us here near the water to see this be a big accumulation. It's not a storm that is tracking too Far East and then bam, it comes a bit west to benchmark and we get a blizzard (Dec 26 2010), this one is just not playing with enough cold air for coastal sections.

by **cooladi** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:55 pm

This is just the first dance of the season, and an early one at that. More to come all season long. Will take what I get in western nassau county and be glad I'm on vacation this week and not commuting to NYC in whatever this brings. So appreciate all of your hard work; will be checking back often to see how much shoveling I'll be doing while starting to cook Thanksgiving dinner early Thursday morning...

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:55 pm

Well I am further inland than manhattan but about 20 miles, literally 10-15 miles south of warning area sooooo annoying lol, hoping this has changed back and forth. We will see.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:55 pm

The Winter storm warnings line up nicely with my forecast

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 3 Usnj

by **docstox12** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:56 pm

Also it's November and we just hit the 60's yesterday.Still, this could strengthen and pull in more cold air.Even the advisory areas are still 4 to 6, pretty darn good for a November snowstorm.

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:57 pm

Well I am hoping it jumps back up, but yes 3-5 (which is what the WWA is for) is better than nothing.

by meeka312 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:57 pm

Guys wanna predict 85 and sunny for the rest of the year so I can fish comfortably? Lol

by **docstox12** Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:58 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The Winter storm warnings line up nicely with my forecast

Great work on that map Frank.So far, so good. We'll see the late night trends and temps.

by **docstox12** Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:00 pm

meeka312 wrote:Guys wanna predict 85 and sunny for the rest of the year so I can fish comfortably? Lol

I promise on June 1 2015 to predict 85 and sunny because I will want to fish that day too!

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:00 pm

LOL detailed forecast by day has 4-7 for my area, thats warning level criteria, lol makes no sense. Oh well, we will see only mother nature knows what truly will happen

by **Math23x7** Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:01 pm

Here's what's interesting about this: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) just updated their snowfall probabilities and it shows my location (close to JFK airport) having a 40-50% chance of getting at least 4." I don't think that will happen, but then again that does mean 50-60% if getting less than 4" lol!

by meeka312 Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:02 pm

Docstox13 I'm gonna hold you to that lol.

by **docstox12** Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:03 pm

The NWS guys must read this site's message board and are trying to drive some of us nuts.I think they are going nuts with the pressure, big time travel on a big time Holiday.

Checked National Radar.Lots of moisture in the SE and Florida.Juicy!!!!!

by **docstox12** Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:04 pm

meeka312 wrote:Docstox13 I'm gonna hold you to that lol.

Book it, meeka!!! After this killer winter to come, we'll be begging to go fishing come April!

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:06 pm

Strange NWS upton discussion did not update with WWA lol, still says WSW and potential for banding over area, so this is still a possibility IMO, the snow amounts could just as easily tick south again putting southern WC and other areas into warning. I wouldnt loose hope yet.

by meeka312 Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:07 pm

docstox12 wrote:
meeka312 wrote:Docstox13 I'm gonna hold you to that lol.

Book it, meeka!!! After this killer winter to come, we'll be begging to go fishing come April!

March 15th is the longest I wait to put the boat back in.

by **docstox12** Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:09 pm

Excellent.

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:10 pm

Wow 18z NAM, still puts my area and near city in warning criteria, and northern areas is nuts!

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 3 18z_na10

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 3 18z_na10

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:12 pm

sorry posted too many hours out, but it stays the same from 33 hrs.

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