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December 20th-21st Storm Threat

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gigs68
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:33 am

Please follow the link to my latest blog. Feel free to ask questions! Thank you

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/12/december-20th-21st-coastal-storm.html

Frank


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:06 am

Great job Frank. I always like your analysis with no over hype. There seems to be lots of potential here for big things to happen but like you say potential is one thing but everything coming together for a MECS or dare I say bigger is always a crap shoot this far in advance. It is great to see the potential for so many positive players in these potential events coming together. You have been pointing to the potential of this time frame for quite some time. Great job and thanks again for all the time you spend analyzing these things and making them understandable.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:28 am

I second CP's statement.So clearly written even a low tech analog weather person like me understands it.Whatever happens, at least there is a lot of fun in store the next half month with all of this potential to track.Thanks,Frank.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:01 am

Great write up Frank . You make it easy to understand and i hope it all comes together
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Post by algae888 Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:06 am

frank great write up as always. very exciting times ahead.
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:14 am

Frank,

Great write up as always and I echo the sentiments of the posters my fellow weather weenie's above.

You write it in such a layman's way of understanding and Mars is lucky to have you work for them - maybe you will become their weather expert for their farming industry sector - you know this is big right now in the foods, energy fields.

Folks, I said this last couple Very Happy cheers of weeks to get our sleep and rest now cause we will have A LOT of tracking and sleepless nights ahead cheers

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Post by Guest Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:42 am

Frank got me excited again.

Hey Frank great write-up. Now all I need to get me geared up is a few inches from the 21st storm so theres some white around on Christmas Eve here on Long Island.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 14, 2014 10:03 am

Great write-up Frank! Looking forward to no sleep and tracking!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 14, 2014 10:25 am

Thank you everyone! Can't wait until we get closer to this time period! Lets hope the blocking does not suddenly disappear on the models.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:42 pm

Word

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:44 pm

I still like this potential. All the pieces are there. If we can get just 1 northern stream vort to drop into the base of the trough, we'll be set.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:07 pm

If we compare the 12z EURO with the 00z run from last night, you will be able to see the model is still playing around with how it handles H5. First off all the critical pieces needed to develop a storm are still there. On both runs, the northern stream is a little slow in going downstream and the storm does not deepen off the coast until another piece of s/w ejects out of Canada and phases into the mean trough. 

The block was stronger on the 12z run today and the 50/50 low was also a little further south. This is one of the reasons why the storm looked like it struggled to come up the coast. A storm can overcome something like this if trough sharpens up and gets negative sooner. Being that we're still 150 hours out, I'm pretty content of where we stand. 

December 20th-21st Storm Threat 10389224_851805588204535_1635780407760863740_n

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:27 pm

@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:People really thought the euro was going to keep the same solution? This solution is a lot colder along the coast with a big storm just offshore. Good run.

Guys check out the Northern Vort over N Dakoda at hr 96.  STJ peice entering Tx at that time.  24hrs later the S piece is entering Tn area where as the N piece is still over S S Dakota. Its being held back too much I think.  If it speeds up by 6hrs it should really dig into the STJ and tilt the trough neg and bring the surface Low more up the coast.  

Scott great point and I just watched that 5x on Stormvista and it seems screwy to me but then again we are way out - looks to catch the tail end at hour 129 of the Southern Vort but it is behind so it doesn't really dig into it - too late. That baby goes boom once it slides off the coast.
Question - wouldn't that +PNA ridge move this Northern Vort faster and have it dig into the trough - it just seems to hanging around up there in North Central Plains - hours 72-105 it is still up there before it slides down the ridge - this is what I meant by screwy but maybe I am not seeing it correctly what is holding it back is the question?


There is energy coming ashore on the west coast around this time frame trying to crash the PNA ridge.  If it comes onshore a tad later I would def think we should see that N piece speed up.  If im not mistaken the Euro has a know bias of holding back energy.  Im just not sure if its northern stream or southern stream or both regarding the bias.  Like Frank I def like where we are at.


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:43 pm

Scott great and I believe you are right in that the EURO holds back the Northern Vorts/Energy.

Miller A's love to come North and how many times do we see the OP lose their projections from previous days only to come back? Many times IMHO -. Euro showing a bomb off the coast which signals a deep LP and it comes to the BM then we have big time CCB bands setting up to its NW.

By Wednesday's 00Z, 12Z runs we will now more at the inside the 120 hours mark by then.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:10 pm

That euro run has mecs if not hecs written all over it if it positions itself at that intensity perfectly along the coast. imo we gonna get slammed here's hoping and things looking good so far.
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Post by amugs Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:28 pm

Euro Ens looking gorgeous from another board - WOW - MECS written all over it.

Even with this unfavorable pattern we may still get the goods!!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:48 pm

Isn't the pattern getting better mugs? Euro ensembles have many with significant to godzilla level snows. Mugs use your king weenie skills to make this monster happen lol
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:51 pm

all this excitement but I don't want to get my hopes up and then get disappointed . Will see by middle of week
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:09 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:all this excitement but I don't want to get my hopes up and then get disappointed . Will see by middle of week

Im with you skins

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:11 pm

@amugs wrote:Euro Ens looking gorgeous from another board - WOW - MECS written all over it.

Even with this unfavorable pattern we may still get the goods!!

Yup, here you go 

December 20th-21st Storm Threat Ecm_eps_mslpa_noram_7

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:17 pm

Thanks for posting Frank!

Frank the pattern after Xmas until the early middle of jan looks tantalizing to say the least for us snow weenies!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:24 pm

@amugs wrote:Thanks for posting Frank!

Frank the pattern after Xmas until the early middle of jan looks tantalizing to say the least for us snow weenies!

Yea, check long range thread

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:31 pm

Nothing more beautiful then that post Frank, at 150 hrs or so out and the Euro honing in on such a strong storm and the CMC big jump in the direction I am not 100% sold but as people said come 00z wed night if we still here or even better I am all in!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:32 pm

Im going to hold off a bit getting excited about this one. I dont know, im going to wait for it to get under to get under 100 hours to get involved.
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Post by amugs Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:57 pm

Check this out 

December 20th-21st Storm Threat Post-910-0-23179900-1418676079

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