December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Euro lost the storm mainly because it flattened the ridge out west. That's a very important feature.

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro lost the storm mainly because it flattened the ridge out west. That's a very important feature.

Eeeek. I'm sad. Well we are still far out, hope it changes. But the euro is pretty consistent usually, no?

We that is not encouraging. Guess we will have to wait and see

So if im reading things right the weekend storm not looking good as we speak

skinsfan1177 wrote:So if im reading things right the weekend storm not looking good as we speak

At first glance it looks that way skins. Even Euro ens are S and E of the BM. I'll wait until 12 z to comment further.

Man sroc i hope it comes through all things seemed to be going in the right direction.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Man sroc i hope it comes through all things seemed to be going in the right direction.

Yeah Im not so sure right now. Im in the process of putting together a little blog about it. Give me 15-30 mins and you will see what I mean.

Frank has been look at para gfs which shows now a potent storm very close but not quite close enough.

Euro Could Had a hiccup It happens. Or we get skunked again but I have a feeling about this one if not this one than def next one

So this has been where the Euro has been trending towards over the last day or two.  Im not entirely sold on the idea just yet but my hopes are decreasing.  By tomorrows 12z I want to see a trend back to a stronger ridge in the west.  Im pretty sure that holds the key to this whole thing.  The CMC is similar in its H5 with crashing the ridge in the west which forces a southern soln. I still refuse to even look at the GFS or its mentally challenged twin when forecasting.

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Sroc, You just went on someones naughty list!

Anyone that's disappointed at this stage is not paying attention.

Any predictions made 7-10 days out are always subject to enough variations that one of 10 different things can muck up the works. I don't think anyone should be surprised, just as I don't think anyone should be surprised if it still happens. And as far as anything after that, the possibilities exist and I love the analysis but until a couple of days before they are just possibilities, sometimes even not then.

Taffy wrote:Sroc, You just went on someones naughty list!

I'm sorry Taffy I am trying to be as objective as possible. I want snow as much as the next guy and gal. But like CP said we still have time for trends. I am merely analyzing what one models trends have been. Timing is everything here. If the northern stream energy is faster by only 6-12 hrs it would most likely over come a crashing western ridge because you would then get a phasing system that digs and a trough is born.  All the energy involved in this storm is still not well sampled yet so I plan to stay "cautiously" optimistic until about Thursday morning, but I need to see trends before then to get excited.

Para GFS - has a bit of a sharper not as flat ridge as the euro. That system coming in the NW PAC looks to smack it (PNA Ridge) down on the euro - we see still have ALOT of time in the weather world and I like were we are at - as long as the ridge does not get completely crushed we could still see a nice snowfall IMO. If it does then onto the next one.

Sroc, No worries. I was really just joking but your second post explained it very well. I am so meteorology challenged but I am really trying and I am beginning to catch on to a few things thanks to you and all the members of the board.

Taffy wrote:Sroc, No worries. I was really just joking but your second post explained it very well. I am so meteorology challenged but I am really trying and I am beginning to catch on to a few things thanks to you and all the members of the board.

4-5yrs ago I was in the same boat. I remember listening to Frank and even Tom (NJWeather) back then on the 7-online chat board thinking who the heck are these kids and how do they know so much about the weather. Ask questions and continue to listen and you'll learn a ton.

sroc4 wrote:

Taffy wrote:Sroc, No worries. I was really just joking but your second post explained it very well. I am so meteorology challenged but I am really trying and I am beginning to catch on to a few things thanks to you and all the members of the board.

4-5yrs ago I was in the same boat.  I remember listening to Frank and even Tom (NJWeather) back then on the 7-online chat board thinking who the heck are these kids and how do they know so much about the weather.  Ask questions and continue to listen and you'll learn a ton.  

Thanks for a great Buzz Kill this morning mother nature!! How do I let computers with mathematical and scientific data about stuff that might happen 5 days from now dictate my mood??

I'm so upset I took a sick day. Well no not really for that reason I am actually quite sick at a very inopportune time ugg.

I think sroc and others are right. It's one run. Sroc explained what happened in it. A 6 to 12 hr difference is small and this could easily change even at 12z today. But then it could change back tonight. What I have seen on the models this year is until the energy is well sampled things are not shown all that well. Be patient if not this one then onto the next.

jmanley32 wrote:I think sroc and others are right. It's one run. Sroc explained what happened in it. A 6 to 12 hr difference is small and this could easily change even at 12z today. But then it could change back tonight. What I have seen on the models this year is until the energy is well sampled things are not shown all that well. Be patient if not this one then onto the next.

I know you're right, and I've said it before I know it's only 1 storm, or 1 run Blah, Blah, Blah but.....I have been patient and I have gone "on to the next one" but this is the 10th next one.

Hopefully it's just one run and as I said last night the models often correct back n/w as we get closer.

Just noticed the NWS which had issued HWO for the storm in some areas for the tri-state area have dropped them all, and the temperatures for Sat. thru Sun. have been raised 3 to 4 degrees and liquid precip. forecasts cut by more than half. THIS SUCKS

I've learned through the years, never even start to get your hopes up for anything more than 5 days out. If you start to take serious threats a week away you will drive yourself insane, they show up often on any one of the various models and more often than not if the storm even does materialize it will bypass your area or be liquid in the area you live, or freezing rain, or sleet, or any other number of things that will disappoint.

You can start to think it might have a chance 3-4 days out and if it's still predicted 1-2 days out and it doesn't happen try to save your disappointment for those.

I guess I've learned through years of being disappointed and conversely pleasantly surprised many times, even up to and on the day of events or predicted events. Until it actually happens, there are no guarantees.

And I say this as someone who has had many sleepless nights through the years in anticipation of, or disappointment at the big one hitting or not hitting. Of course I've had over a foot of snow already this year so I suppose it's easy at this juncture for me to let it roll.

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I think sroc and others are right. It's one run. Sroc explained what happened in it. A 6 to 12 hr difference is small and this could easily change even at 12z today. But then it could change back tonight. What I have seen on the models this year is until the energy is well sampled things are not shown all that well. Be patient if not this one then onto the next.

I know you're right, and I've said it before I know it's only 1 storm, or 1 run Blah, Blah, Blah but.....I have been patient and I have gone "on to the next one" but this is the 10th next one.

Hopefully it's just one run and as I said last night the models often correct back n/w as we get closer.

I think you need to really relax.

There maybe something coming into the NW PAC after looking more closely on Sunday at 00Z to try and pump the ridge in the west but it maybe too late.

Scott great analysis and I hear your sentiments fro Taffy - on the old board I was like Euro model, CONUS, BM (Bowel Movement?) GFS, Ensembles - like anything else take the time look things up and ask questions this what this is about in a friendly unbiased manner where there is no grade!!! oh and Frank was 16 and ace - Quiet ace - 11?12? and he was schooling some of the board members with this knowledge back then

Quietace wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I think sroc and others are right. It's one run. Sroc explained what happened in it. A 6 to 12 hr difference is small and this could easily change even at 12z today. But then it could change back tonight. What I have seen on the models this year is until the energy is well sampled things are not shown all that well. Be patient if not this one then onto the next.

I know you're right, and I've said it before I know it's only 1 storm, or 1 run Blah, Blah, Blah but.....I have been patient and I have gone "on to the next one" but this is the 10th next one.

Hopefully it's just one run and as I said last night the models often correct back n/w as we get closer.

I think you need to really relax.

Hey Ryan I am relaxed! Just want snow and frustrated at the lack of it so far. I wish I was 17 again so relaxing was easier but as you get older it becomes more difficult. The weather is a passion of mine especially snow. Don't take my complaining posts too seriously there are many other things to worry about.

Hey Syosnow,

Longtime lurker here from the 7online days.
I totally understand your frustration and laughed at your comment because it's pretty true. The one word you always hear on these forums is "patience."

So, forget about patience because if you're like me, you probably get pissed off every time a "potential" storm shows up on the models and gets talked about for 10 days and does little or nothing (9 out of 10 times at least)

We all want the super monster storm of the century but they just don't happen here all that much. However,  I think that's what makes tracking here so fun. If we got these blizzards or whatever kind of  storms you prefer all the time, they wouldn't be all that exciting. They wouldn't be epic masterpieces which we all pray for. They would be routine and my friend, nothing routine maintains our excitement for very long.
I look forward to experiencing a Macdaddyzilla of all zillas with you all in the near future but until then, we will all be praying for the big one together and hopefully learning more about the fascinating world of weather in the process.

Ok my speech is over lol I'll go back to reading all your In formative posts. Thanks for all you do!( Frank, Tom, sroc and the rest. It's a pleasure to follow this forum.

Manny

Something to keep in mind everyone - the energy doesn't come on shore until Wed night then we get full sampling at the 00Z or the 12Z I would suggest since the energy will be all in and in a better data sampling region so let's have patience to see what happens by then - models seem to do this to storms in this medium range (lose them and or make them weaker only to have them return to their previous modelling)

We have seen this so many times that within 84 hours we get changes - some good, some not to good.

We shall see.