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Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----

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Dtone
Math23x7
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:58 pm

Yes am not looking forward to my commute, only hoping as I get closer to the bx there is no icing, maybe it wont even ice in yonkers, it may be too far south.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 10, 2015 1:04 pm

You never know Frank, we didn't expect quite so heavy snow yesterday, but yeah doesn't look like much to write home about. See you all in a few hours.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 10, 2015 1:59 pm

This, if anything would be a nasty ice storm.
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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:23 pm

NYC DSNY has issued a SNOW ALERT for Monday January 12th at 12am. LOL!!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:34 pm

Some winters everything's just seems to synchronize perfectly for every storm and produce snow. And then there's winters like this one where nothing synchronizes and it seems impossible to build a decent snowfall. No change in sight either.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:23 pm

Nope this isn't the year and I don't know if it will get any better .
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 10, 2015 8:50 pm

nws using gfs temp profiles. interesting. has a glze of ice for nyc and n/w with minor snow accum.

SUNDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD/...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL HAVE POPS AFTER 05Z. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
ALOFT WITH THE NAM MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY THE LOWER LEVELS WARM...ESPECIALLY INLAND. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE STARTING AS A WINTRY MIX WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
INLAND. WHILE AT THE COAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS PROFILES FOR PRECIP TYPE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT
.
THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS...IN
PARTICULAR IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THAT WILL
MAKE QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE SNOW/WINTRY MIX/RAIN LINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND HOW LONG A GIVEN AREA IS IN EACH
GENERAL P-TYPE.

FOR NOW APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND S CT MONDAY...WITH RAIN MIXED IN
ACROSS NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND MONDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN OVER LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF NYC AND NE NJ
DURING THE MORNING...AND TO ALL RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE INTERIOR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE MONDAY
EVENING...POSSIBLY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW...DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT.
Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 2 StormTotalIceFcst
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:16 pm

As CP said if anything this is gonna be a nasty ice storm, thats low and no big deal but if those go up to .25 or higher thats a problem.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:31 pm

00z gfs 

Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

00z cmc

Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

.05 inches of ice is a good call for nyc, everything else will be rain.

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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:33 pm

Gross...
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:43 pm

@aiannone wrote:Gross...

Yes, typical SWFE with no well defined LLC (low level center) to help draw in the cold air from the northwest. There's no H5 energy involved at all here. It's an ugly setup as they come.

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Post by HeresL Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:03 am

We have a winter weather advisory in place here in Western Passaic County. I know this isn't a big snow event but it still seems like it could be pretty bad for driving up in these parts, no? Just trying to prepare for possible school delay/closing as it seems the frozen precip is supposed to last all day... We have such a different little micro-climate here in West Milford. What are your thoughts for the higher elevations of NJ?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:07 am

@HeresL wrote:We have a winter weather advisory in place here in Western Passaic County. I know this isn't a big snow event but it still seems like it could be pretty bad for driving up in these parts, no? Just trying to prepare for possible school delay/closing as it seems the frozen precip is supposed to last all day... We have such a different little micro-climate here in West Milford.  What are your thoughts for the higher elevations of NJ?

From 6am-11 am you'll probably see freezing rain with snow mixed in, but it'll be a very light precip. Around 12 pm is when the heaviest precip moves in and everyone should change to plain rain.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:10 am

Here are snow amounts you can expect up in ulster and Sullivan counties. Orange will also see some. 1-3 inches of snow. 

Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 2 Ecmwf_tsnow_nyc_16

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Post by HeresL Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:21 am

Thanks, Frank! I guess we'll just have to see what decision the schools make in the morning :-) Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:24 am

Everyone has a WWA now, even city for some icing. Short time 3am till 10am, but a terrible time to have any ice.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:25 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Everyone has a WWA now, even city for some icing.  Short time 3am till 10am, but a terrible time to have any ice.

Precip is not expected to move in until 5-6am

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:29 am

I'm really concerned about freezing rain here, my temps have been below freezing since 2:00 Friday. 28° here now and overcast with the ground still snow-covered.

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:40 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:I'm really concerned about freezing rain here, my temps have been below freezing since 2:00 Friday. 28° here now and overcast with the ground still snow-covered.

Same here Janet. Temp is currently 27.6* and cloudy. Took a reading of my road surface temp with my thermometer gun and it says 28* which is a little high due to the sun this morning, now the clouds have moved in and i expect that to cool and spell some trouble for the morning.
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:52 am

Yep. I don't care what the models or mets say. It's been freezing cold for a week and wherever there is snow cover there will be freezing rain thru at least 9 or 10 a.m. 2 hour delay for schools here on LI most likely!

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:59 am

ICE ICE BABY! That is the name of the game tomorrow morning peeps - its going to be light but it is going to be slick - I see many delayed openings for schools and accidents at rush hour.

Darn Houdini act by the cold air once again!! At least this time it is hanging around for a few more hours than the Saturday storm.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:12 pm

Frank I was talking about the specific WWA for southern wc said from 3am till 10am, dunno why if what your saying is true.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:15 pm

Well if it is that chilly in LI then its probably going tobe a isssue here too, not looking forward to the drive in tomorrow morning, I have no choice but to be out the house by 6:30 7 latest, our job could care less about our safety, nice huh.
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:20 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Yep.  I don't care what the models or mets say.  It's been freezing cold for a week and wherever there is snow cover there will be freezing rain thru at least 9 or 10 a.m.  2 hour delay for schools here on LI most likely!
Wait. Where on Li are you?
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:25 pm

From Accuweather:
"In places where it has been very cold over the last few days, the ground may still be cold enough to allow any rain that falls to freeze on contact," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Steve Travis.

Such icy conditions will develop along I-95 from New York City to Philadelphia to Washington, D.C., and in northwestern Virginia Monday morning before a changeover to rain occurs.

However, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Thompson states that motorists should still use caution as temperatures crawl above freezing.
"Even when temperatures rise above freezing to 33 or 34 F, some surfaces may still be icy given how cold it has been over the past several days," warned AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Thompson.
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