Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

[Snow88]

Not a bad look on the GFS in regards to the clipper. Redevelops further south than the 18z.

[Snow88]

Next week looks really interesting with a lot of energy running around

[Frank_Wx]

Next week looks really interesting with a lot of energy running around

Yes, all the players were on the field this run of the 00z GFS. They just did not come together favorably. We're still 8-9 days out. As long as the players are there that is all I care about. No one wants to be in the bulls eye at this range anyway.

Also, 00z GGEM looks like 00z GFS in regards to Sunday storm. Well off the coast.

[Frank_Wx]

Time for bed. Someone else update the 00z GGEM/EURO for me. Night!

[sroc4]

Euro still insistent on bringing the precip much further west than the GFS and CMC. With some of the energy just making it to the playing field this am it will be interesting to see if the new GFS scores the first win over the Euro or if it comes back west today with the precip shield. Either way its wet not frozen.
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[sroc4]

Clipper system for Wed Euro and CMC: I would sign on for the Euro in a heart beat right now.

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[Frank_Wx]

Is it too much to ask for model agreement just once? Doc, with the energy just coming ashore watch all the models trend to the EURO.

The euro is notorious for holding back southern energy. However, the GFS last night was doing the same thing just not to the same degree. Euro digs the northern stream much better though while the GFS is progressive with it. This is all in reference to the 23rd storm.

The 21st storm I'm kinda liking a little bit. There's a 50-50 with a developing western ridge. It would be all northern stream deiven, but if it deepens at the right time we could see a minor to moderate snowfall out of it. What we don't want is for H5 to close off to our west allowing heights to rise along the coast.

[jmanley32]

Yep sroc Euro has about 3-5 for whole area with clipper and even 06z GFS has come bit further south with the snow, but not like the Euro.  Asfor the furthest out storm, it keeps showing well south and OTS but something tells me that sucker is going to hit, the Euro ensembles have some HECS runs, MECs and many SECS.  Low locations has some of the LP getting down to as low as sub 970!  Yes I know we are far off and thats good because if we were close it would be bye bye to that one.  What are your thoughts on it sorc?  Why is it going S and OTS, rather than up coast like some earlier runs showed, do you think it has a decent shot at changing like many of the ensembles show?

[jmanley32]

So Frank what are you saying about the 23rd, a complete miss? Cuz thats what the Euro showed.

[sroc4]

To be honest I haven't been looking beyond Wed really at all.  Even Wed I will only start to zero in on this weekend.  Models are just too volatile.  This weekend I will start to analyze later in the week.  The md and LR has been so volatile as I have shown in my case study thread that trying to get a sense of what is happening 7-8days out is not worth my time.

[jmanley32]

make sense, just thought you may have some thoughts on it but best to wait ur right, just dont like verbatim seeing such a intense storm doing nothing but stirring up the fish.

[sroc4]

Yep sroc Euro has about 3-5 for whole area with clipper and even 06z GFS has come bit further south with the snow, but not like the Euro.  Asfor the furthest out storm, it keeps showing well south and OTS but something tells me that sucker is going to hit, the Euro ensembles have some HECS runs, MECs and many SECS.  Low locations has some of the LP getting down to as low as sub 970!  Yes I know we are far off and thats good because if we were close it would be bye bye to that one.  What are your thoughts on it sorc?  Why is it going S and OTS, rather than up coast like some earlier runs showed, do you think it has a decent shot at changing like many of the ensembles show?

The one thing I will say about the late week system is that if you look at the latest runs of the teleconnections, the AO and NAO in particular you will notice the most recent run does not take either one nearly as neg as it did before.  But notice there is also a lot of run to run inconsistency in this.  If the NAO is not as strong in the neg state it makes sense to see a further south and east soln as there is not enough blocking to turn it up the coast and bomb.  I think both the GFS and Euro are struggling a little bit with exactly where to go with those forecasts.  There is no doubt the overall trend is good for us looking in the long range regarding a -NAO and -AO to go along with the -EPO, and +PNA which is forecast.  I stand by my 25th-26th time frame.  With that said I am not ready to getexcited for the late week system as Im not sure the pattern will be entirely set up for it.  We shall see how it goes after the sunday/Monday evvent.  Im growing more and more confident of at least something to measure regarding the clipper for Wed.  Both the Sunday Monday system, as well as the clipper system will play a big role in the establishment of whatever -NAO or neutral NAO develops for later in the week and beyond.  We have to get through the short term and see some consistency before detailed analysis can be done for the later time frame.  
EURO/GFS NAO
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EURO/GFS AO
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[amugs]

Lets take it oen storm at a time here - Wednesday should be the focus IMHO - these 8 day out storms are like the girls we dream of - never come knocking on my door, yours??

Sunday is a done - rain (?) and 40*'s - some friggin warm up or thaw. Hope it doesn't so I can get my xmass decorations from outside down.

The inconsistency with the NAO and AO are a direct reflection of the changing pattern IMO and it will remain inconsistent - we need to look at the 500mb maps to see what is what and even then hate to say it may not be depicted - the models have been horrid with this this winter.

Wednesday we have a legit shot at a plow able snowstorm with many to come after that.

THIS would be sweeeeetttt!!!

[jmanley32]

Yeah not bad verbatim euro last night showed 3 to 6 from this event. Sunday Will B A Sharp Cutoff AND Looks MA be Be Far Enough East To Miss Most Of us.

[Frank_Wx]

So Frank what are you saying about the 23rd, a complete miss? Cuz thats what the Euro showed.

What? Heck no. I can not make such a determination 8 days out. I can only look at the pattern and make an assesement based off of that, which I said I will not do until this weekend. The only storm I suggested will likely be a miss is this Sunday's storm. There is actually another storm on the 21st that needs to be watched before we even get to the 23rd.

So we have the 18th, 21st, and 23rd that we're following.

[Snow88]

Light snow event from the clipper for the NYC metro area. Not a bad look this far out. A little more digging would be nice.

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS uses the 18th storm as a 50-50 low and really blows it up in SE Canada. This may actually be a problem for the 21st storm because it may not have enough space to amplify and deepen off our coast. The energy kind of gets absorbed a bit into the 18th storm. We have to see how this plays out.

[Guest]

s

[Guest]

I'm being positive and patient.  My lawn should look nice.

Can someone please answere my post in the 18th storm thread.

[algae888]

well it started on today's 6z and now the 12z but the OP gfs has lost the cold and has plenty of cutters after day 8. looking at it's tele conn. sums up these last 2 runs. after a brief drop in ao/nao gfs seems to think there on the rise again. so much for feb. starting off good. if euro trends towards gfs then it's time to write off this winter.



also after going through phase 7 gfs looks like mjo is heading back to 5 and 6. euro also has same look.

[sroc4]

Syo Except for a few isolated runs the Euro has been consistent with a stronger LP (more phasing) which ultimately with this set up leads tro a more western track. The result brings the precip shield further west. But also a stronger storm would cause the cold air to come in quicker as well. This is still prob not going to help us much, but certainly cant rule out snow shows at the end (although its more likely that the precip leaves before our area gets cold enough for much). The GFS and CMC has been for the past 24-48hrs showing a weaker soln that didnt really bring much precip further west than NYC I-95 region, but todays 12z GFS is a bit stronger and west like the euro. FWIW the GFS kind of led the charge on this 3-4days ago. If the 00z hold with the western soln Im sold on it. Western soln means stronger system increased QPF for everyone, and possible snow for Nand W of the city as temps crash

[skinsfan1177]

Thought mjo was going into phase 8 then 1 so why the change fro, last night . I'm thinking it ain't gonna happen this year not our winter frustrating

[sroc4]

well it started on today's 6z and now the 12z but the OP gfs has lost the cold and has plenty of cutters after day 8. looking at it's tele conn. sums up these last 2 runs. after a brief drop in ao/nao gfs seems to think there on the rise again. so much for feb. starting off good. if euro trends towards gfs then it's time to write off this winter.



also after going through phase 7 gfs looks like mjo is heading back to 5 and 6. euro also has same look.

I like this one the best Al
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[algae888]

so the gfs has caved to euro. so much for the new look. last night gfs had nada for most of nyc metro and was very dry on previous runs while euro has been consistent for days no with about an inch of rain(18th). so now we hope euro is right for wens. storm as it showed several inches off snow for us and gfs has a rain snow mix (12z today). what will probably happen is that euro is wrong for this system (21st) and gfs is right. it's how are winter has been going so far. and for the 23rd storm gfs now has low exiting central fla. coast. the writing is on the wall the white flag is in my hand let spring begin.

[Frank_Wx]

12z CMC has 1-2 inches of snow Wednesday

[algae888]

well the navgem and cmc has a better look for the 23rd storm.


gfs is wayyyy different.

[Frank_Wx]

12z euro wednesday

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