Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 27, 2015 4:59 pm

As far the long range I thought things look good like signals and stormy and cold does this still look to be

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 27, 2015 5:16 pm

not surprised it would be warm. looking at very long range there at least 4 storms on gfs including this weekend. maybe at least one will go good for our area around nyc.

by **devsman** Tue Jan 27, 2015 6:54 pm

How does euro look long term? (2 weeks)

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:00 pm

Ensembles, Euro and GEFS have plenty of potential. I see at least 2 major threats. Feb1-2, Feb 6-8th Maybe something I between

by **devsman** Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:07 pm

Dont care if mondays storm gives LI only an inch...just don't want rain. Give NJ and HV their storm. They deserve it after the let down.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:19 pm

devsman wrote:Dont care if mondays storm gives LI only an inch...just don't want rain. Give NJ and HV their storm. They deserve it after the let down.

Thank you, hope it happens Neutral

by mancave25 Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:21 pm

Watched nick Gregory at 6 and he said the model that got the last storm right has 4-8" for the Sunday night storm

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:23 pm

mancave25 wrote:Watched nick Gregory at 6 and he said the model that got the last storm right has 4-8" for the Sunday night storm

wow he touched it that far out already? Lee Goldberg mentioned it etc just saying they see future possible storms in the future

by **devsman** Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:34 pm

GFS has 4-8? Not enough to cancel school. I'm waiting for the NAM anyways. Suspect

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:46 pm

Not even gonna touch this one until clipper and into SR after what we just went through.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:48 pm

devsman wrote:GFS has 4-8? Not enough to cancel school. I'm waiting for the NAM anyways.

LOL

Poor NAM it's gonna take a while for him to restore his reputation. Which was pretty slutty before this.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:54 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
devsman wrote:GFS has 4-8? Not enough to cancel school. I'm waiting for the NAM anyways.

LOL

Poor NAM it's gonna take a while for him to restore his reputation. Which was pretty slutty before this.

We've got quite a battered and bruised weather world today. Forecast maps of accumulation will be PENSIVELY released if any storm comes to fruition late in the weekend.

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 27, 2015 8:21 pm

this wont be lived down for awhile..i think future storms will be received as a "its not going to do anything" lol

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 27, 2015 8:32 pm

Mumbo-jumbo from NWS on Sun-Mon storm.They call it a warm storm but only have me for a high of 25 on Monday.Whattttt????

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 27, 2015 8:33 pm

docstox12 wrote:Mumbo-jumbo from NWS on Sun-Mon storm.They call it a warm storm but only have me for a high of 25 on Monday.Whattttt????

They are also reeling from today, just like me. Hence my new avatar.

GFS looked decent for Sun PM-Mon. Which means it'll prob happen. ;-)

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 27, 2015 8:43 pm

Lee was explaining about how it could bring warm air with the system..thats all i know he said the temps could go up within next few updates

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:19 pm

Euro brings a snow to mostly rain warmer storm for Sunday night Monday. Right now the GFS is colder and snow for all.

The GFS is young, eager, and coming off a knockout win over his aging opponent in their last meeting. The Euro may be desperate here trying anything to regain the title he once held.

Let the fight begin.

by **billg315** Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:36 pm

Hmmm. It would figure one of the few times the GFS outperforms the EURO is when it cheats us of a blizzard. So since the EURO is going warm/rain for this next storm, with our luck it figures to regain it's belt. "Don't call it a comeback!"

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:45 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Euro brings a snow to mostly rain warmer storm for Sunday night Monday. Right now the GFS is colder and snow for all.

The GFS is young, eager, and coming off a knockout win over his aging opponent in their last meeting. The Euro may be desperate here trying anything to regain the title he once held.

Let the fight begin.

Muhammed Ali (aka Cassius Clay) vs Sonny Liston Feb 1964!!!!!!!!!

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:46 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Mumbo-jumbo from NWS on Sun-Mon storm.They call it a warm storm but only have me for a high of 25 on Monday.Whattttt????

They are also reeling from today, just like me. Hence my new avatar.

GFS looked decent for Sun PM-Mon. Which means it'll prob happen. ;-)

Right now, I'd go with that GFS.It knocked out the Euro yesterday,lol!

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:46 pm

I For One Am Really Going To Pay Attention To the New gfs. Also with this last storm we really never had agreement with major models. Hopefully this next system at least in short range will have a agreement.

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:48 pm

Just so you guys know, the GFS was not entirely correct for this storm. Euro snow totals verified on LI and Eastern MASS, but not NYC on West. The GFS had the correct totals for NYC on west but busted low big time for LI and Eastern Mass totals. So all in all, no model really had a good grasp on this storm.

by **Math23x7** Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:03 pm

aiannone wrote:Just so you guys know, the GFS was not entirely correct for this storm. Euro snow totals verified on LI and Eastern MASS, but not NYC on West. The GFS had the correct totals for NYC on west but busted low big time for LI and Eastern Mass totals. So all in all, no model really had a good grasp on this storm.

Alex, that's a great point. It was very similar to the 2/8-2/9/13 storm. The GFS verified NYC westward, the EURO verified for LI and New England with that storm

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:20 pm

00z GFS for the Monday system next week went north, so lots of rain

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 11 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f141

It's a blizzard for Alex though (Alex, mother nature may make this up to you for not being home yesterday)

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z GFS for the Monday system next week went north, so lots of rain

It's a blizzard for Alex though (Alex, mother nature may make this up to you for not being home yesterday)

That would just be lovely, but I would be sad that your snow would be melting.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:42 am

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 11 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f132

The euro keeps the storm track south and NYC Metro sees close to a foot of snow thus run. Heres the scenarios:

1. The northern and southern stream energies remain un-phased and this becomes a SWFE. With confluence in SE Canada thanks to the Friday clipper deepening with a PV in an ideal location in east-central Canada, that creates enough of a confluence or block to prevent the storm from cutting northwest. Instead, it's a SWFE and the tricky part becomes where the baroclinic zone, or temp. gradient, sets up. These setups could yield big snowfalls for some locations, but really screw over those on the wrong side of the gradient. Very thread the needle types.

2. The confluence in Canada is weak and the storm has room to cut west. This scneario would bring many places rain. This scenario is likely to happen if a phase is realized. Too early, the storm deepens and cuts.

3. This scenario isn't shown yet and I doubt we worry about but would be a Miller B that most likely benefits just New England. A phase just before reaching the coast but the confluence is still good in Canada, so energy is forced to transfer off the coast.

Here are your three scenarios for Monday. We'll get an idea of how this shapes up by the weekend.

by **algae888** Wed Jan 28, 2015 2:33 am

gfs ensembles are south of op...
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 11 Gfs-ens_mslpa_us_23

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 11 Gfs-ens_mslpa_us_24

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