Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:42 pm

30 degrees below normal type of temp departures likely this weekend. Crazy

GFS:

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 Gfs_t2m_a_f_east2_28

EURO for Saturday morning

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 Ecmwf_t2m_neng_25

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:44 pm

Saturday morning wind chills

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 Gfs_windchill_nyc_23

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:45 pm

All I have to say is...

Madonne.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:46 pm

Hide your kids and wives (or husbands)

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:53 pm

We're going to be below freezing for awhile. Impressive cold stretch

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 KEWR_2015020818_tx_240

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Feb 08, 2015 8:05 pm

Now let's just get a storm I believe

by **jmanley32** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:37 am

00z GFS has a mega coastal come and transfewr off the coast it explodes, sub 970 but too late, is there still a possibility this storm could happen? Models have shown it in that time frame a few times now, but will the cold keep it away is the question, whatever it does the winds look to howl to 50mph+, which could be the reason for those friggin windchills, dangerous cold!

by **algae888** Mon Feb 09, 2015 1:37 am

euro looks very interesting for thurs and sat. only have ewall maps they do not tell all details but looks promising,

by **jmanley32** Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:21 am

Al its a immense storm on sat (GFS and Euro), if we can get it west maue said it will be a all out blizzard on twitter (verbatim even without a big hit the isobars are so tight over us it has winds over 50mph winds with windchills -40!, cmc has an even crazier storm at the end of its run (not as strong but a lot of snow), ill post the fantasy map in banter tomorrow, just woke up to all these sirens thought i would check in not looking too promising, probably black ice accidents, the emergency vehicles (A LOT) went, returned, and then went back again two minutes later. a lot of black ice out there and it has not even started doing anything. well back to bed, radar looks to be closing in on us for frz or sleet. roads are dangerous.

by Guest Mon Feb 09, 2015 7:49 am

Clipper track has trended north of the area for Thursday, but with high ratios should be a 6-8" storm..............................FOR BOSTON!!

by **docstox12** Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:01 am

syosnow94 wrote:Clipper track has trended north of the area for Thursday, but with high ratios should be a 6-8" storm..............................FOR BOSTON!!

This is like watching a baseball game where the opposing team cycles through their batting order against your pitchers! They hit every pitch you throw at them.Guess it was just in the cards that the pattern would favor Boston.Miller B's always perform better N and E of us and this winter tells the tale.

by **crippo84** Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:32 am

algae888 wrote:euro looks very interesting for thurs and sat. only have ewall maps they do not tell all details but looks promising,

Maybe it's a good thing not to be in the crosshairs at this timeframe. We see how our previous events have trended as we get closer when we're in the bullseye too early. Obviously just hoping at this point...maybe we can get the late trend in our direction this time lol.

by Guest Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:55 am

crippo84 wrote:
algae888 wrote:euro looks very interesting for thurs and sat. only have ewall maps they do not tell all details but looks promising,
Maybe it's a good thing not to be in the crosshairs at this timeframe. We see how our previous events have trended as we get closer when we're in the bullseye too early. Obviously just hoping at this point...maybe we can get the late trend in our direction this time lol.

Almost impossible when we're talking about a clipper. The forecast track shifted north (shocker) from yesterdays runs by over 150 miles putting our friends in Boston under about .50 QPF with 20 to 1 ratios. We get maybe .1 QPF! !

by **RJB8525** Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:00 am

Edit: if someone can delete this i meant to post this in the OBS thread LOL

by **crippo84** Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:00 am

syosnow94 wrote:
crippo84 wrote:
algae888 wrote:euro looks very interesting for thurs and sat. only have ewall maps they do not tell all details but looks promising,
Maybe it's a good thing not to be in the crosshairs at this timeframe. We see how our previous events have trended as we get closer when we're in the bullseye too early. Obviously just hoping at this point...maybe we can get the late trend in our direction this time lol.

Almost impossible when we're talking about a clipper. The forecast track shifted north (shocker) from yesterdays runs by over 150 miles putting our friends in Boston under about .50 QPF with 20 to 1 ratios. We get maybe .1 QPF! !

Lol yeah...again just hoping/wishing. It looks like it's a transfer of energy type of storm, just too late for us. But FWIW, the 06z GFS took a very nice trend in our direction. Nothing huge but decent QPF with cold air. But...it's just the 06z GFS. East end of LI would be in good shape with that run verbatim however.

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:02 am

Latest GFS run crushes the east end of LI and whaddya know; Boston too lol

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:07 am

The Thursday storm with each model run is trending stronger and slightly west. Getting a little interesting. Still thinking minor snowfall at this point but that could quickly change

by **jimv45** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:09 am

i think this one will be the one for everyone lets hope!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:10 am

rb924119 wrote:Latest GFS run crushes the east end of LI and whaddya know; Boston too lol

The pattern will turn on them eventually just like it did for us out of the blue on February 17th last year, but what a run they've had no doubt. Some places may see double their seasonal average in a 20 day period.

by **RJB8525** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:10 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The Thursday storm with each model run is trending stronger and slightly west. Getting a little interesting. Still thinking minor snowfall at this point but that could quickly change

a quick hit system maybe 2-3" would be nice.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:13 am

Wow

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

High ratio too

by **amugs** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:18 am

LI special incoming as per gfs. A jog 20 miles west and NYC metro is in the game.

If it verifies NENJ gets in teh action and does the NJ coast

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 29 >v=1423497426

by **jimv45** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:18 am

just need to come west and we all get good snows but this might be the coastal areas with the best shot of good snows will see but like the trends!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:24 am

I'm actually glad we're not in the bullseye right now. Being in the bullseye four days out has not worked out in any storms this season so maybe at this stage this is a good thing.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:26 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm actually glad we're not in the bullseye right now. Being in the bullseye four days out has not worked out in any storms this season so maybe at this stage this is a good thing.

Yea, but I would not get your hopes up for this event. Pattern still favors eastern LI/southern NE. We'll see if this trends west but we should be happy with even a minor snowfall event

by **devsman** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:29 am

If the cold air arrives as the storm does on thursday, will that dry out the western sector of the storm and screw NYC west like the last Clipper "Blizzard"?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:30 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm actually glad we're not in the bullseye right now. Being in the bullseye four days out has not worked out in any storms this season so maybe at this stage this is a good thing.

Yea, but I would not get your hopes up for this event. Pattern still favors eastern LI/southern NE. We'll see if this trends west but we should be happy with even a minor snowfall event

Agreed, but maybe this one can work out for NYC on east. It doesn't look like a HV special by any means.

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