Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

by **devsman** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:29 am

If the cold air arrives as the storm does on thursday, will that dry out the western sector of the storm and screw NYC west like the last Clipper "Blizzard"?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:30 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm actually glad we're not in the bullseye right now. Being in the bullseye four days out has not worked out in any storms this season so maybe at this stage this is a good thing.

Yea, but I would not get your hopes up for this event. Pattern still favors eastern LI/southern NE. We'll see if this trends west but we should be happy with even a minor snowfall event

Agreed, but maybe this one can work out for NYC on east. It doesn't look like a HV special by any means.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:32 am

devsman wrote:If the cold air arrives as the storm does on thursday, will that dry out the western sector of the storm and screw NYC west like the last Clipper "Blizzard"?

Yes, it could. There is no southern stream interaction.

by **algae888** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:32 am

frank big diff. from 6z is that low forms around va. capes compared to s nj coast. the further south redevelopment the better chances we have of it bombing out and throw back sign. moisture

by **jimv45** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:33 am

frank there might be mixing with this.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:33 am

algae888 wrote:frank big diff. from 6z is that low forms around va. capes compared to s nj coast. the further south redevelopment the better chances we have of it bombing out and throw back sign. moisture

Yes, exactly.

Latest 12z GGEM is even more impressive than GFS. Ruh roh shaggy

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 30 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f81

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:34 am

jimv45 wrote:frank there might be mixing with this.

No way.

by **algae888** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:35 am

also look at the low from today and how close the two are to each other. wonder what effect it will have on Thursdays system?
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 30 Gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 30 Gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:37 am

algae888 wrote:also look at the low from today and how close the two are to each other. wonder what effect it will have on Thursdays system?

Today's epic storm is going to act as a block for the Thursday storm given the lack of spacing. This is why we're beginning to see solutions of a coastal storm closer to the coast and possibly closing off at H5. Also, we have higher heights east of Greenland which acts as an east-based block.

by **algae888** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:40 am

frank well if that's the case then i'm starting to enjoy todays epic storm even more.lol

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:41 am

Idk why we're getting excited about this lmao We all know how the Miller B(S) systems have worked out so far this season, and with the present pattern, there's no reason for it to change. Think if we redraw a couple maps we can confuse the weather into shifting south? Maybe like giving it bad directions, or something? ahaha

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:43 am

rb924119 wrote:Idk why we're getting excited about this lmao We all know how the Miller B(S) systems have worked out so far this season, and with the present pattern, there's no reason for it to change. Think if we redraw a couple maps we can confuse the weather into shifting south? Maybe like giving it bad directions, or something? ahaha

No one is saying blizzard. It's a minor snow event, 1-3/2-4 type of deal. Maybe a little more on LI. Yes, I get excited over even an inch.

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:52 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Idk why we're getting excited about this lmao We all know how the Miller B(S) systems have worked out so far this season, and with the present pattern, there's no reason for it to change. Think if we redraw a couple maps we can confuse the weather into shifting south? Maybe like giving it bad directions, or something? ahaha

No one is saying blizzard. It's a minor snow event, 1-3/2-4 type of deal. Maybe a little more on LI. Yes, I get excited over even an inch.

I know, and I do too. I'm just saying we have to look at the bigger picture with the way things have been working out, that's all, and to really try to take things as they come and not get overly excited, myself largely included, as has been the case this entire season.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:54 am

I agree. It's only 3 days out though and there is nothing else to talk about.

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:55 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I agree. It's only 3 days out though and there is nothing else to talk about.

Your logic is undeniable lmao

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:01 pm

Okay... The situation in Boston is about to get scary actually. There is literally no where to put the snow...from LAST week. Now this!?

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:11 pm

GFS ensembles are loving Boston and the east end of LI too. Wow.

by **sroc4** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The Thursday storm with each model run is trending stronger and slightly west. Getting a little interesting. Still thinking minor snowfall at this point but that could quickly change

Just when I think I will have a small break to regroup, get a few other ducks in a row I look at the 12z GFS and CMC and say whoa this has trended more interesting. Then I look back at a few runs and say wow def a little more interesting; esp IMBY. So naturally I come on here to see whats cooking and read this and everything else after this. It sucks me back in. Screw my other ducks. Giddy up.

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:16 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The Thursday storm with each model run is trending stronger and slightly west. Getting a little interesting. Still thinking minor snowfall at this point but that could quickly change

Just when I think I will have a small break to regroup, get a few other ducks in a row I look at the 12z GFS and CMC and say whoa this has trended more interesting. Then I look back at a few runs and say wow def a little more interesting; esp IMBY. So naturally I come on here to see whats cooking and read this and everything else after this. It sucks me back in. Screw my other ducks. Giddy up.

Literally lol'ed so hard at this ahahahaha

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:26 pm

Do not want to make this all about Boston...but I will.

A 976mb low pressure system sits off their coast Friday afternoon. You gotta wonder what plans they have to remove the snow. Flamethrowers? If this comes to fruition, their snow depth may be between 5-6 FEET

This is the 12z GEFS

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 30 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 30 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:27 pm

The other system to watch for southern areas this time (woohoo) comes Saturday night into Sunday with a possible inverted trough

12z GEFS again

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 30 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f141

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 30 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f141

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:29 pm

Some individuals for Thursday system. Impressive

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 30 F90

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:35 pm

Just like we banned the word N A M from this board, I think it's time to ban the word Boston. I have 20 inches of snow on the ground and everytime I hear about Boston it depresses me, it shouldn't be the case with a snow pack like this.

Frank can you change the web site so anytime someone types in the word Boston it will change it to Red Sox Suck?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:36 pm

Yes, I can do that but I would spend most of my time laughing too hard haha

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:36 pm

Interesting read from Joe cioffi on this upcoming week Thursday and Saturday as Frank just hinted about Saturday. He explains how Thursday storm could act as a block for Saturday and slow things down

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:36 pm

And the thing with Boston is, CP, is their snow depth. You have 20 inches. They might be at 50. I don't even know.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:And the thing with Boston is, CP, is their snow depth. You have 20 inches. They might be at 50. I don't even know.

The funny thins is Frank, you have to differentiate between snow that has fallen and actual snow depth.

As I'm sure you know snow compresses upon itself over time, as it fills in air pockets and just from the weight of the snow on top of the other snow. Before this latest event the snow depth in Boston was 22 inches but I believe 42 inches had fallen in the last week. A little of this difference would be melting but not much this time of year most of it is just from compression and settling.

I remember when Buffalo had one of their big blizzards a couple of years ago they received 70 something inches of snow over several days and the maximum snow depth was 45 inches during the event. The snow depth was down in the 20s a couple of days later, and the temperature had not warmed. That's what makes it much harder to melt a 2 foot snowpack that's been around for several weeks and has absorbed rain and snow and compressed itself than it is to melt a fresh 2 foot snowpack. There's a lot more liquid compressed into an older snowpack than the new one and it becomes the same as if you wanted to evaporate 6 inches of liquid which may be compressed into an older 2 foot snowpack, versus 2 inches of liquid which may be in a fresh 2 foot snowpack. Enough science for today my head hurts.

One thing I should add to that is that high ratio snows, in other words dryer snows at colder temperatures settle and compress to a much higher ratio initially, than very high liquid content snows because there are far fewer air pockets to fill in a high liquid contents snow.

Back to work.

by Sponsored content