Re: BLIZZARD JAN 26TH-27TH: OFFICIAL OBSERVATION THREAD

by **Vinnydula** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:11 pm

Would that be 60.1in?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:11 pm

docstox12 wrote:CP, you see that NAM with all the blue up here.With the ratios, I'll be able to jump out of my second floor window into the snow safely.

One of our posters mentioned the fact that the low closed off sooner and would come closer to the coast.Frank and Ryan verify.

Moderate snow, 16 degrees,29.96 F

jump? Doc if that came close to verifying, you could walk out your second-story window into the snow.

by tigernumba1 Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:12 pm

Artechmetals wrote:Who gets crushed ? And is this true ?

looks like roidzilla for most and frankzilla NYC east

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:13 pm

Will post wx bell when done

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:13 pm

If H5 closes off anytime between 7-8:30pm tonight, I will have to increase snow amounts

by **snow247** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:14 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Off the charts snow

Wow. That's my dream storm. Is there any chance of this verifying?

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:15 pm

by **crippo84** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:If H5 closes off anytime between 7-8:30pm tonight, I will have to increase snow amounts

Again I'm a rookie, but learning a ton from you guys. What does it mean for H5 to close off? I now understand negative tilt (trough), but I hear you all reference this a lot when storm tracking. Any scoop there? I just googled "H5 closing off" but didn't get the info i was looking for (lol).

by **RJB8525** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:16 pm

Rich Hoffman has thrown it out..not sure if that is wise for a bold statement but time will tell right? whats the next we need to see if it holds? i know NAM has been in its own planet

by Guest Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:16 pm

Almost 3 inches here in Syosset. Radar over ocean is empty but keeps back building once back edge hits Long Island. Frank just give us all odds/percentages of totals from your map going up or down.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Total QPF

With ratios that's pretty much the Blizzard of 1888.

Many places would be over 40 inches. Obviously we can't buy yet it hook line and sinker, but I guess we can't throw it out either.

Frank guide us, I'm trembling here.

by Yschiff Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:16 pm

The nam has looked impressive for 3 runs straight

by **billg315** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME HAVE TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION, INCLUDING THE NAM MODEL - THE ONE I SAID I WOULD SLEEP WITH ONLY ONCE - I SERIOUSLY HAVE TO EVALUATE THINGS WHEN I GET HOME BUT STICKING WITH FINAL SNOW MAP FOR NOW

I knew you'd sleep with the NAM again someday Frank. For all its faults the NAM can sometimes be a seductive temptress.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:18 pm

Quietace wrote:

This is almost exact to what the Euro had 24 hours ago.

What does that mean?

by **billg315** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:19 pm

I have to say, my office closed early and the trend of these models upon my arrival home is much better than when I was leaving this morning.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:20 pm

So the 18z NAM has nearly 2 feet for me, EURO around 12"-15", GFS around 8-10" and latest RAP/HRRR 4-6", all I can say is well s*** nobody knows whats going to happen do they...

by **RJB8525** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:21 pm

Eastern PA Weather Authority
24 mins ·

The latest analysis at the surface shows the low pressure is stronger and more WSW than the model guidance at 12z (this late morning/early afternoon) suggested. This matches up with our observations of the trough taking a "negative tilt" earlier. This means the trough axis is from SE to NW, this allows air to diverge over the low pressure system aloft. Which then allows air to rise faster and speed up the development of the low. The next thing we will be watching for is when this trough closes off and allows the low to slow down and stay closer to the coast. That should occur later this evening. Current forecast stands as called, no reason to change it right now.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:21 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:So the 18z NAM has nearly 2 feet for me, EURO around 12"-15", GFS around 8-10" and latest RAP/HRRR 4-6"

What do you think Tom? You're one of our best and brightest. What do you go with here?

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:23 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:CP, you see that NAM with all the blue up here.With the ratios, I'll be able to jump out of my second floor window into the snow safely.

One of our posters mentioned the fact that the low closed off sooner and would come closer to the coast.Frank and Ryan verify.

Moderate snow, 16 degrees,29.96 F

jump? Doc if that came close to verifying, you could walk out your second-story window into the snow.

On my bucket list my good man!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:23 pm

Id say have a beer (or several), load your favorite radar and get ready for a long night.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:23 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Quietace wrote:

This is almost exact to what the Euro had 24 hours ago.

What does that mean?

Drink heavily!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:24 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Id say have a beer (or several), load your favorite radar and get ready for a long night.

Sound advice

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:24 pm

All I know if nam verify the Jersey coast will be done the brb we could not push the the snow

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:24 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Id say have a beer (or several), load your favorite radar and get ready for a long night.

Going with wine but I'll be on til I drop.

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:24 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Quietace wrote:

This is almost exact to what the Euro had 24 hours ago.

What does that mean?

Watch current obs to see if they match with NAMs progression as Frank said, its closes it off around 7-8:30...If it does well you know...Curious if the GFS will be similar

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:25 pm

This is what we have to monitor going forward:

1. Is the center of low pressure really following the convection on its east-northeast side? If it's not, models such as the GFS and GGEM will be way off. That is something we can monitor right now actually.

2. When does H5 close off and where? Both very important. For those asking, H5 is the 500mb trough in the atmosphere. When we say "close off" we mean it cutting off from the jet stream and basically slowing down the storm. Not only slow it down, but possible bring the surface low track further west. If it closes off fast - like NAM suggests - the surface low will be closer to the coast possibly inside the BM. THEN IT WOULD STALL..especially if H7 and H3 also close off.

3. Frontogenesis. Wherever there is the greatest H7 lift is where you will see high snowfall rates. These will likely be confined along the immediate coast, but Iv'e seen some model bring those bands inland as well.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:25 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Quietace wrote:

This is almost exact to what the Euro had 24 hours ago.

What does that mean?

Drink heavily!

Which character said that in animal house? "My advice, drink heavily", Belushi?

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