Re: BLIZZARD JAN 26TH-27TH: OFFICIAL OBSERVATION THREAD

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:25 pm

This is what we have to monitor going forward:

1. Is the center of low pressure really following the convection on its east-northeast side? If it's not, models such as the GFS and GGEM will be way off. That is something we can monitor right now actually.

2. When does H5 close off and where? Both very important. For those asking, H5 is the 500mb trough in the atmosphere. When we say "close off" we mean it cutting off from the jet stream and basically slowing down the storm. Not only slow it down, but possible bring the surface low track further west. If it closes off fast - like NAM suggests - the surface low will be closer to the coast possibly inside the BM. THEN IT WOULD STALL..especially if H7 and H3 also close off.

3. Frontogenesis. Wherever there is the greatest H7 lift is where you will see high snowfall rates. These will likely be confined along the immediate coast, but Iv'e seen some model bring those bands inland as well.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:25 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Quietace wrote:

This is almost exact to what the Euro had 24 hours ago.

What does that mean?

Drink heavily!

Which character said that in animal house? "My advice, drink heavily", Belushi?

by **billg315** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:26 pm

docstox12 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Id say have a beer (or several), load your favorite radar and get ready for a long night.

Going with wine but I'll be on til I drop.

I'm thinking I'm going to have to drop my 1 beer per inch plan from yesterday. Shocked

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:28 pm

Yeah, very appropriate because this website will be Animal House all night tonight if that low closes off as Frank says.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:28 pm

billg315 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Id say have a beer (or several), load your favorite radar and get ready for a long night.

Going with wine but I'll be on til I drop.

I'm thinking I'm going to have to drop my 1 beer per inch plan from yesterday.

If the RAP is right we only drink 4-6, if the NAM then more like 20, your about 10 mins to my north lol

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:28 pm

billg315 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Id say have a beer (or several), load your favorite radar and get ready for a long night.

Going with wine but I'll be on til I drop.

I'm thinking I'm going to have to drop my 1 beer per inch plan from yesterday.

Good idea unless you have a nurse with a triage center in your house.

by **billg315** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:33 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
billg315 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Id say have a beer (or several), load your favorite radar and get ready for a long night.

Going with wine but I'll be on til I drop.

I'm thinking I'm going to have to drop my 1 beer per inch plan from yesterday.
If the RAP is right we only drink 4-6, if the NAM then more like 20, your about 10 mins to my north lol

Well if history is a guide, most of my drinking nights start with me thinking its a RAP night and ending up being a NAM night.

by **RJB8525** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:33 pm

no locals or TV mets are gonna touch this yet so this is all between snow weenies so far

by **Taffy** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:33 pm

27°F
Feels Like 15°
Moderate snow fall
Wind NE 14 mph
gusts to 20 mph.

by **2004blackwrx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:34 pm

Hosting pictures is not working. Was going to show current conditions. As far as drinking just drinking no need to count let the excitement of the storm guide you.

by **RJB8525** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:36 pm

HRRR if anyone cares lol

BLIZZARD JAN 26TH-27TH: OFFICIAL OBSERVATION THREAD - Page 11 10954083_10204971342674937_458932882_n1

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:36 pm

The Hi-Res NAM is now in agreement with the regular NAM, even more bullish actually

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:37 pm

by WOLVES1 Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:37 pm

Frank my 8 year old daughter told me she was very disappointed this winter only rain. I started showing her the form and she now started asking what is frank saying about the snow. Picked her up from school and it's snowing with 2 inches on the ground and she asked me to say you ROCK!!!!!!!

by **Grselig** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:38 pm

now its 1 1/2 inches and 21 degrees in Wayne. snow with wind. Bourbon will be the drug of choice.

by **billg315** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:38 pm

Looking at the radar more snow hanging/wrapping in on the backside of this system further west in PA than I expected and more snow settled in over NJ than I expected from this first phase of the storm.

by Yschiff Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:38 pm

Frank are you buying the nam

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:39 pm

RJB8525 wrote:no locals or TV mets are gonna touch this yet so this is all between snow weenies so far

Did the NAM have a snowfall map with ratios for that run?

If so there had to be 40-50 inch spots. If I was a pro I wouldn't touch that yet either, until something came on board.

The one thing is that NAM snowfall map did match yesterdays Euro 12Z almost exactly, of course the Euro has backed off that since, but could the NAM of all models have picked up on something the others, other than the Euro before today, haven't?

by **Grselig** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:39 pm

Frank, if the NAM is correct, you will have achieved God-Like legendary status at only 22 years old!!!!!

by **2004blackwrx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:40 pm

[img]

BLIZZARD JAN 26TH-27TH: OFFICIAL OBSERVATION THREAD - Page 11 20150121

[/img]

Picture doesn't do whats falling justice

by **WeatherBob** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:41 pm

Frank, wasn't the NAM developed and designed for short range east coast storms?

by suds123 Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:41 pm

hrrr is usually pretty accurate this close in, Ive read a few comments on twitter there is growing concern-

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:42 pm

suds123 wrote:hrrr is usually pretty accurate this close in, Ive read a few comments on twitter there is growing concern-

Neither it or the rap close off H5 until 5z Tuesday

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:42 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The Hi-Res NAM is now in agreement with the regular NAM, even more bullish actually

Frank:

The one thing is that NAM snowfall map did match yesterdays Euro 12Z almost exactly, of course the Euro has backed off that since, but could the NAM of all models have picked up on something the others, other than the Euro before today, haven't?

by **RJB8525** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:44 pm

All "pros" are throwing out the NAM basically bashing it saying model huggers are loving it...party poopers, cant they have some fun?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:48 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Frank, wasn't the NAM developed and designed for short range east coast storms?

Yes, especially in this time frame under 24 hours. Heck, we're under 8 hours now

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:48 pm

RJB8525 wrote:All "pros" are throwing out the NAM basically bashing it saying model huggers are loving it...party poopers, cant they have some fun?

I do not buy into the QPF amounts of the NAM. But how about its location and where it stalled? That's also key and possible still.

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