Re: BLIZZARD JAN 26TH-27TH: OFFICIAL OBSERVATION THREAD

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:11 pm

People in NW NJ. I think you may be setting your hopes high. I 'only' have you in 6-12 inches. I would not expect more than that. There is a sharp cut-off expected

by mancave25 Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:12 pm

Please explain

by ClimateControl Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:12 pm

Brick, NJ: This morning the Blizzard Warning stated that we would be in blizzard conditions as of NOON. It is now 5:12 PM and not much happening. Around half inch on ground and nothing falling now.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:13 pm

Click on "full size" to get a nice view of that LI band

by **amugs** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:13 pm

It will rotate and fill in - no worries we are all going to get zoinked on his

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:13 pm

That's crazy blizzard warning is for tonight into Tuesday morning

by Abba701 Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:13 pm

Looks like the zookeeper is doing a good job. 4.3 so far!

by **Grselig** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:13 pm

dry spell in Wayne

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:14 pm

mancave25 wrote:Please explain

Once H5 closes off, it will no longer be advancing west to the coast. It will then make a run to the BM. The bands on the west side are going to sit and spin over a training area, most likely not NW NJ since they're too far west for this storm.

by mancave25 Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:14 pm

K so if the storm moves inside the bm by 50 miles nw nj still gets 6 - 12, I don't get why that happen I would think the more west it goes the more we see up here

by **algae888** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:15 pm

hi yall just woke up from a long overdue nap. have about 2-3" otg. snowing lightly atm. and talking about being married to tha nam nws certainly is.lol

997 LOW ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA AT 4 PM PER MSAS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE
WRN ATLC. THE RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED BANDING OVER LI...WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN S OF LI FLOWING NWD.

THE END RESULT IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THRU
THE EARLY EVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH PER HR INTO THE 2-4
INCH PER HR RANGE BY 10PM OR SO. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:16 pm

mancave25 wrote:K so if the storm moves inside the bm by 50 miles nw nj still gets 6 - 12, I don't get why that happen I would think the more west it goes the more we see up here

It really depends how far west the best banding could get. It's a nowcast situation.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:16 pm

NYC is already at 4 inches of snow

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:19 pm

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:19 pm

Abba701 wrote:Looks like the zookeeper is doing a good job. 4.3 so far!

You beat me to the punch there Abba.

I truly believe the e-mails are working. This is the first time I can ever remember an accurate measurement from central Park this early in the game. The fact that at 4 PM they actually recorded what has fallen which as you said is 4.3 inches blows me away. Keep the e-mails going. Either congratulate them for so far being correct or continue the pressure to make sure they stay on top of this.

They really do listen to this stuff. They got most of last year correct because of the e-mails sent in the beginning of January when they blew some of the measurements on the December storms. I know we all have more important things to do right now, but nothing is more important than setting snowfall records.

Well I guess a few things are, but not many.

by mancave25 Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:21 pm

So ur basically stating that the storm is going over the bm, I thought u said before if the h5 closes off between 7-830 the storm is going to move west and stall, I'm sorry about all the ?'s

by **snow247** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:21 pm

Getting dry slotted here.

by Guest Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:21 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:She's coming west...

That is beautiful in 3 ways.

1. Scientifically amazing
2. Artistically
3. BECAUSE OF HOW MUCH FREAKIN SNOW IT COULD BRING!!!!!!!!!!

by mancave25 Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:23 pm

That image has 2 lows one at 996 and the other 998

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:24 pm

mancave25 wrote:So ur basically stating that the storm is going over the bm, I thought u said before if the h5 closes off between 7-830 the storm is going to move west and stall, I'm sorry about all the ?'s

There is an area of subsidence on the west side of this storm, hence the cut-offs. Just look at the image below and you'll see the west and east sides of the storm are far from symmetrical. Once the comma head forms, we have to see where it decides to set-up the band. It will be interesting to see.

BLIZZARD JAN 26TH-27TH: OFFICIAL OBSERVATION THREAD - Page 15 Low

BLIZZARD JAN 26TH-27TH: OFFICIAL OBSERVATION THREAD - Page 15 Low

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:24 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:She's coming west...

That is beautiful in 3 ways.

1. Scientifically amazing
2. Artistically
3. BECAUSE OF HOW MUCH FREAKIN SNOW IT COULD BRING!!!!!!!!!!

I second these statements!!

by **SNOW MAN** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:25 pm

My local met said NYC will only get 9.1inches. HUH ?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:25 pm

There is no such thing as a dry slot right now. All this snow you are seeing was an appetizer. It was leftover energy from a clipper that passed to our south but it's feeling the pressures of the big storm so a lot of these bands enhanced along the coast.

by ClimateControl Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:25 pm

Brick, NJ: I just checked the radar and it looks unorganized. Just heard the low is jogging more to east, (away from coast).
Starting to think this "blizzard" was hyped too much. Any thoughts on this?

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:26 pm

Wow Al, that is insane a raging blizzard, 3 foot amounts, so not everyone discounting NAM, this should be interesting. As of right now southern westchester completely stopped hole, hope this doesn't stay that way.

by deadrabbit79 Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:27 pm

Something doesnt add up for me...perhaps i am just to much of an amateur but....every state is closing down roads and highways, states of emergency are being declared, the subways and mass transit systems are being shut down yet TWC and a lot of the local mets are calling for 12 inches? We have had 12 inches before without all these precautions. What am i missing?

by **sabamfa** Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:29 pm

deadrabbit79 wrote:Something doesnt add up for me...perhaps i am just to much of an amateur but....every state is closing down roads and highways, states of emergency are being declared, the subways and mass transit systems are being shut down yet TWC and a lot of the local mets are calling for 12 inches? We have had 12 inches before without all these precautions. What am i missing?

The winds will cause whiteout conditions.

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