Re: BLIZZARD JAN 26TH-27TH: OFFICIAL OBSERVATION THREAD

[Frank_Wx]

Here is a break down of when the precip from the main storm comes onshore. As you can see, break was expected by 7pm.

[Frank_Wx]

If the H5 don't close by 9pm then it moves and takes precept with it?

Not for you

If it dosent close then Parker from weather channel is right?

No, because even if it closes off near New England it will still push bands into NYC. Just not as intense and it won't be long duration

[sroc4]

Frank,there is a lot of mention of the H5 closing off. In laymans terms can you explain what that means and how can you tell when it happens?Thanks

H5 is the 500mb level of the atmosphere. We monitor 850, 700, 500, and 300mb levels very closely during storms like these all for different reasons. 300mb for jet streaks, 700mb for frontogenesis, 850mb for temps, 500mb for positioning and strength of surface low / orientation of trough and a host of other reasons. H5 is important on many levels.

When it closes off, it means the trough has become so strong and negatively tilted that it's no longer being controlled by a jet stream. It's essentially it's own entity. The surface low typically slows down or stalls, bombs out due to the consolidation of energy, and dynamics come into play.

To expand on this here is the current 500mb (H5) map.  As of now the winds at H5 which tends to stear our surface LP (I highlighted a few in black) are traveling S to SE through the plains where they round the base of the trough and head N to NE.  
This is actually what the H5 currently looks like.  


When one or more of the lines closes off (Black dashed lines) essentially means that in the area that is closed the winds are no longer N to NE but rather circle back round and round into an upper level vortex.  AKA an Upper Level Low (ULL)  this slows down the flow.  
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[JDKWeather]

North Shore Queens on the Nassau border

Amazing how this just moved in within
The last 15 min.

Strong winds and moderate snow now

[skinsfan1177]

Their is a heavy band right off coast please reach me.

[Dtone]

light but steady snow is back. Coming off the Sound. Got a fresh coating.
Looks like its struggling once it gets on shore

[Frank_Wx]

Here is a break down of when the precip from the main storm comes onshore. As you can see, break was expected by 7pm.

Bump

[weatherwatchermom]

Frank,there is a lot of mention of the H5 closing off. In laymans terms can you explain what that means and how can you tell when it happens?Thanks

H5 is the 500mb level of the atmosphere. We monitor 850, 700, 500, and 300mb levels very closely during storms like these all for different reasons. 300mb for jet streaks, 700mb for frontogenesis, 850mb for temps, 500mb for positioning and strength of surface low / orientation of trough and a host of other reasons. H5 is important on many levels.

When it closes off, it means the trough has become so strong and negatively tilted that it's no longer being controlled by a jet stream. It's essentially it's own entity. The surface low typically slows down or stalls, bombs out due to the consolidation of energy, and dynamics come into play.

Thank you for that explanation!!

[Frank_Wx]

Their is a heavy band right off coast please reach me.

Wow, here it comes. Hopefully the subsidence is out

[oldtimer]

Abba Tell me more If H5 don't close off Parker is right??

[Dtone]

North Shore Queens on the Nassau border

Amazing how this just moved in within
The last 15 min.  

Strong winds and moderate snow now

Guess we're seeing the same band

[Frank_Wx]

Intense band offshore

[devsman]

4 inches in merrick. Winds strong. Measured 6 different spots. 4 were 4 one was 5 one was 3.

[shawnerak]

Thanks Frank!

[mancave25]

So what r u saying sroc4 , is the h5 close to closing off

[RJB8525]

Those are really awesome bands, even just to look at

[GreyBeard]

Frank,there is a lot of mention of the H5 closing off. In laymans terms can you explain what that means and how can you tell when it happens?Thanks

H5 is the 500mb level of the atmosphere. We monitor 850, 700, 500, and 300mb levels very closely during storms like these all for different reasons. 300mb for jet streaks, 700mb for frontogenesis, 850mb for temps, 500mb for positioning and strength of surface low / orientation of trough and a host of other reasons. H5 is important on many levels.

When it closes off, it means the trough has become so strong and negatively tilted that it's no longer being controlled by a jet stream. It's essentially it's own entity. The surface low typically slows down or stalls, bombs out due to the consolidation of energy, and dynamics come into play.

To expand on this here is the current 500mb (H5) map.  As of now the winds at H5 which tends to stear our surface LP (I highlighted a few in black) are traveling S to SE through the plains where they round the base of the trough and head N to NE.  
This is actually what the H5 currently looks like.  


When one or more of the lines closes off (Black dashed lines) essentially means that in the area that is closed the winds are no longer N to NE but rather circle back round and round into an upper level vortex.  AKA an Upper Level Low (ULL)  this slows down the flow.  
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Nice explaination sroc. But I still don't understand how you know when it happens-ie.when it closes off.

[sroc4]

Here is a break down of when the precip from the main storm comes onshore. As you can see, break was expected by 7pm.

And to expand on this again both the NAM and Euro do not have 500mb (H5) closing off until Tuesday 6z at the earliest.  In the words of the great Aron Rodgers  R-E-L-A-X Everything is right on track
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[RJB8525]

7:30 latest upton bulletin they kept everything the same they made no changes so the see no difference to change anything they still have 18+ for the region. no need to worry

[Abba701]

But what time is 6z New York time?

[sroc4]

Frank,there is a lot of mention of the H5 closing off. In laymans terms can you explain what that means and how can you tell when it happens?Thanks

H5 is the 500mb level of the atmosphere. We monitor 850, 700, 500, and 300mb levels very closely during storms like these all for different reasons. 300mb for jet streaks, 700mb for frontogenesis, 850mb for temps, 500mb for positioning and strength of surface low / orientation of trough and a host of other reasons. H5 is important on many levels.

When it closes off, it means the trough has become so strong and negatively tilted that it's no longer being controlled by a jet stream. It's essentially it's own entity. The surface low typically slows down or stalls, bombs out due to the consolidation of energy, and dynamics come into play.

To expand on this here is the current 500mb (H5) map.  As of now the winds at H5 which tends to stear our surface LP (I highlighted a few in black) are traveling S to SE through the plains where they round the base of the trough and head N to NE.  
This is actually what the H5 currently looks like.  


When one or more of the lines closes off (Black dashed lines) essentially means that in the area that is closed the winds are no longer N to NE but rather circle back round and round into an upper level vortex.  AKA an Upper Level Low (ULL)  this slows down the flow.  
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Nice explaination sroc. But I still don't understand how you know when it happens-ie.when it closes off.

When H5 has a big circle or circles instead of continuous lines and look like this: (Circle over LI = closed H5)
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[weatherwatchermom]

I think that was NYC, but I could be wrong let me look.  Still plenty of cars out, buses have stopped though here.

New York State Gov. Andrew Cuomo says a storm-related travel ban will go into effect on all roads in 13 counties including New York City and Long Island at 11 p.m., along with a shutdown of the city's subway system and commuter rails.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island — have declared states of emergency. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio ordered all non-essential drivers off the city's roads after 11 p.m.

Gov. Chris Christie declared a state of emergency, authoring the closure of the state government for all non-essential employees Tuesday and activating the state emergency response plans. Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy also issued a travel ban for the state after 9 p.m. Monday.

[mancave25]

Could u give us more details on those maps

[billg315]

If you look at the EURO posted by Frank in just before 1 p.m. today in the FINAL CALL snow map thread, it's projection for location, pressure, precipitation for around 7-8 p.m. is pretty similar to what we have right now. (If I'm wrong on that Frank or others, feel free to correct me, but that's the way it looked to me). I think we'll start to see heavier bands moving in over NJ after 10 as was always projected.

[sroc4]

Could u give us more details on those maps

I will in the banter thread

[JDKWeather]

North Shore Queens on the Nassau border

Amazing how this just moved in within
The last 15 min.  

Strong winds and moderate snow now

Guess we're seeing the same band

It's awesome! I live in Little Neck.

[meeka312]

Eastern Monmouth county started snowing medium/hard in last 10 minutes

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