Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Lee got changes coming up New map totals

So at Lyndon State we get about .25" of precip and snow at 8* max and then drop. That would convert to a 6-10" snowfall with ratios. I like the trends for here.

Mannnn, I'd like to think so too, but that blocking and confluence is only as good as the model putting it there. See the conundrum? We are watching it change before our eyes, whether we want to see it or not.  With the mid-level lows tracking over or even west of us, it is certainly possible that the WAA wins out, even if the low-level circulation remains south of some of us, ESPECIALLY if there is increasing synoptic support for strengthening i.e. stronger confluent region northeast of the cyclone.

Note: NOT meant to come across as nasty or sarcastic, in case anybody took it that way lol

Im lurking accuwx forums and obviously Delmarva people threw in towel long ago but tonight Philly people and people in SNJ throwing in towel, NYC people very concerned. Boston people elated. 

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Im lurking accuwx forums and obviously Delmarva people threw in towel long ago but tonight Philly people and people in SNJ throwing in towel, NYC people very concerned. Boston people elated. 

I think there's a line drawn somewhere with how far north this storm can get before it might even start transferring energy to the coast. I don't think it reaches that point, but I do feel a very bad winter storm is coming for many people in this forum. NNJ/NYC in the thick of it. Godzilla potential from NEPA to NWNJ into HV.

question is this going to be a single low that moves east off the coast and then intensifies or is it going to be a miller b where first lp moves near Pittsburg and then transfers off the coast?

Rb check out current radar. Lots of moisture to work with already.

Would you agree with what i said for up here Frank?

Frank_Wx wrote:Rb check out current radar. Lots of moisture to work with already.

Wow, yeah, you could say that again lmao

And that presents an entirely different entity all-together. How much diabatic heating can the present convection create while this thing develops? Models are notorious for mishandling that. The more convection, the more heating. That could help to further raise heights ahead of this thing. These baroclinic zone-driven systems can really ramp the intensity of the precipitation up very quickly; faster than the models can respond, and that may lead to trouble regardless, but even more-so if the cyclone begins to strengthen significantly.

Frank_Wx wrote:Rb check out current radar. Lots of moisture to work with already.

What's cool about that, though, is that is only being forced by the southern stream quasi-cutoff mid-level low/trough. No northern stream yet.

aiannone wrote:Would you agree with what i said for up here Frank?

Alex I'm on mobile and want to give you an honest answer. Can't tell right now but it all depends on how far north this system gets. You have sick ratios to work with

algae888 wrote:question is this going to be a single low that moves east off the coast and then intensifies or is it going to be a miller b where first lp moves near Pittsburg  and then transfers off the coast?

It should remain one, primary low that moves generally west to east. **BUT IF** we continue to see stronger solutions and it cuts, then we have to start watching for a transfer to the coast, as the synoptic setup would favor that.

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Rb check out current radar. Lots of moisture to work with already.

What's cool about that, though, is that is only being forced by the southern stream quasi-cutoff mid-level low/trough. No northern stream yet.

If there was no block or confluence this would worry me about a cutting system. We rather not see a phase in this scenario. Luckily we have those upper air features. We'll see what the GEM and ECM show...

Frank_Wx wrote:

aiannone wrote:Would you agree with what i said for up here Frank?

Alex I'm on mobile and want to give you an honest answer. Can't tell right now but it all depends on how far north this system gets. You have sick ratios to work with

Thanks Frank. According to this map which takes into account ratios, my calculations seem to be correct with 6-10". Calculated that based on 2m temps and snowfall ratio chart. Map confirms my calculation.

Yea, that's if GFS is right. At this point I think a track between DE and CNJ is likely. But it makes a huge difference on which end it verifies.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Rb check out current radar. Lots of moisture to work with already.

What's cool about that, though, is that is only being forced by the southern stream quasi-cutoff mid-level low/trough. No northern stream yet.

If there was no block or confluence this would worry me about a cutting system. We rather not see a phase in this scenario. Luckily we have those upper air features. We'll see what the GEM and ECM show...

I totally agree that we shouldn't have to worry with those features, but if we see a phase, or at least more interaction than even this 00z run showed, then what could end up happening is a faster occlusion/vertical stacking process, which would draw the low and mid-level lows even further west. That's the issue that I'm seeing. However, if that were to occur then we'd have to look for a Miller-B type event (again), because that would be a classic setup for that, and would be synoptically highly probable.

i'm hearing that the sounding for lga are all snow verbatim but prob mix with sleet for a few hours. this looks like usual set up where n/w of i287 stays all snow and the city mixes. more snow in northern boroughs.

Anyone know where the 850mb low tracked on the GFS?

Frank_Wx wrote:Anyone know where the 850mb low tracked on the GFS?

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_H850V_0054.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_H850V_0060.png
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_H850V_0066.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_H850V_0072.png

Meh...

I hate how Boston is in the jackpot now, theyre gloating about this storm, the last and the Patriots over on Accuwx, sickening.

We won't really know until 00z Sunday on how the thermal pattern will set up. Distances of 30 to 40 miles , maybe less, could mean all snow to sleet/freezing rain. When I first started out in meteorology in 1981, there was one model, think about it, one model. It was called the LFM. I think the grid points were like 60 NM. Any way, my point is, the modern models have gotton to the point of being maybe within 50 miles at the 60 to 72 hour forecast range. Some atmospheric set ups make it easier for the models to forecast while some atmospheric set ups make it more difficult. My feeling is that we have to wait till 00Z Sunday to get a more definitive thermal forecast.

I actually just noticed at H7 the circulation actually opens back up on the 00z GFS as it crosses to our north. That helps our situation lol

Good post. You're most likely correct.

The EURO does too. Interesting.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php


Current NOAA Map............