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Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:58 pm

Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm G3GiM9j

Look at the temperature cut-offs most guidance is advertising for this storm. What's frustrating is the arctic air mass is there for the taking. The route this storm is taking is simply not conducive enough for a widespread moderate snowfall event. The front-end thump most of us are going to see should be impressive, still thinking at least 2-4"/3-6", but we should see a change to sleet and eventually plain rain.

Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm Pmsl

The surface low is currently at 1006mb. As this system deepens, you will see it beginning to take more of a northward instead of easterly track. It does not help matters that there is also a 1028mb High off the coast of the Carolina's. Between that HP and the one in SE Canada, the path for this storm to take is through PA then slide over into NYC. It is not ideal and mid-levels are going to warm.

Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm Track

The band that is entering western PA will gradually shift northward as the storm begins to cut north. While it may look like it's on track to hit SE PA and SNJ, I think those areas end up getting dry slotted. This is shown nicely on the HRRR. Meanwhile, temps continue to warm ahead of this system.

Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm Post-6-0-03757200-1422809070.jpg.pagespeed.ce.9a7eRBwG_Z

You can see the models have really trended warm with this system right along the coast. Any snow/ice that falls initially could get swept away anyway by possible 1-1.50 inches of rain along eastern NJ, NYC, LI.

Here is my updated final snow map:

Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm Final_snow_map_february_2nd_2015

The frontogenesis is still expected to be impressive around 3-4am this evening, that's why I feel 3-4" even 5" of snow is still possible around NYC before the changeover to ice or rain. The ice threat is slightly diminishing in my opinion, but it still needs to be watched. Even .10" of ice is enough to cause issues on the roads. Another thing we have to look out for is for additional snow Monday afternoon. Believe it or not, this storm is not expected to deepen into the 980's once it's off our coast. Temps are going to come crashing down quickly and if any precip. is leftover we'll get additional accumulating snow. This applies mainly to the area circled in the yellow box.

Other then that, watch out for ice Tuesday morning. Standing water is going to easily freeze over with temps. crashing into the single digits. Enjoy the game. Be safe. Be smart Very Happy

Use this as your observation thread. Storm is not too far off.




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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:03 pm

in the 10 to 15 be happy with that! just hope things trend better for all you can never tell with the way this winter has gone who knows it could rain all the way to Albany!

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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:03 pm

Just got upgraded to a warning here in NEVT at Lyndon State for 5-8". Bring it!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:04 pm

HRRR is very bullish. If you want to see the heaviest snow try and stay up between 2-4am

Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm 10945044_10205965555403116_7376013713204748308_n

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:08 pm

Frank your prediction of the leading band of precip. moving more northeast and some areas getting dry slotted at the outset makes sense. Would it be safe to assume (if that plays out) that the 6-8 p.m. start times some have suggested are probably a little early for central jersey? (I'm envisioning coming back from Hoboken post-Super Bowl tonight and hoping that not much will be happening before 10-11 p.m).
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:09 pm

@billg315 wrote:Frank your prediction of the leading band of precip. moving more northeast and some areas getting dry slotted at the outset makes sense. Would it be safe to assume (if that plays out) that the 6-8 p.m. start times some have suggested are probably a little early for central jersey? (I'm envisioning coming back from Hoboken post-Super Bowl tonight and hoping that not much will be happening before 10-11 p.m).

Yes, a later start time for those areas south of NNJ is entirely possible. Maybe just some light snow showers. Nothing too extreme. Keep an eye on radar though. Never know.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:11 pm

P.S. Areas in the purple and orange on the snow map can also expect 1-2 inches of rain.

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:13 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Frank your prediction of the leading band of precip. moving more northeast and some areas getting dry slotted at the outset makes sense. Would it be safe to assume (if that plays out) that the 6-8 p.m. start times some have suggested are probably a little early for central jersey? (I'm envisioning coming back from Hoboken post-Super Bowl tonight and hoping that not much will be happening before 10-11 p.m).

Yes, a later start time for those areas south of NNJ is entirely possible. Maybe just some light snow showers. Nothing too extreme. Keep an eye on radar though. Never know.
Thanks. (and my eye will be drawn to the radar all evening!).
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:15 pm

Upton is saying 3-8 inches of snow now in their discussion. Safe to say they are having a hard time with this one as well

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:16 pm

Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm 33

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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:29 pm

Frank, I'll be happy with that 6 to 12 for me.Thinking closer to 6 here with slop on top .Backend always questionable with these things.Will believe it when I see it.Storm just does not have big snowmaker written on it from me down south.Catskills snowstorm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:35 pm

Imagine if this system with its size went back to its original storm track south of the area? Our area would be the jackpot zone with high ratio snow.

Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm 10377348_881822445202849_4498749491945819086_n

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Post by WOLVES1 Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:39 pm

Frank can you lie to me please, just tell me you see the storm moving south.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:39 pm

It is a shame, it would have been a nice one.Oh well, let's hope the backend surprises when the developing storm draws in cold air.You never know, a good band here and there and you've got 2 to 3.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:41 pm

@WOLVES1 wrote:Frank can you lie to me please, just tell me you see the storm moving south.

😢 😢

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Post by toople Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:44 pm

@WOLVES1 wrote:Frank can you lie to me please, just tell me you see the storm moving south.

He wouldn't be a good forcaster if he lied. 😢

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Post by cooladi Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:50 pm

Very concerned about getting to and from work both Monday and Tuesday. Can deal with snow but ice is a bigger problem for me. So afraid of slipping and breaking something. I'm going to watch how this develops carefully and possibly try to get in early Monday while it's still snow and make it home Monday before the deep freeze. Then if necessary I can take Tuesday to stay in when it likely will be ice everywhere with the forecast temps for Tuesday morning.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:56 pm

Frank if I made a map itd look exactly like yours, hrrr has heavy snow overnight but going to rain quickly between 4-6am depending on where you live
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:56 pm

I know this post was made for a different site but be happy for us that do good with this storm I know I want everyone to do well!

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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:57 pm

I hear ya about that ice.Taking falls at my age,64, is not like you were 24.Severe damage is possible.Stay safe and watch out Tuesday, think it will be a disaster with the frozen slop, possible back end snow and black ice.I took nasty falls with fresh snow on top of ice below thinking it was ok.Good thing I was young.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:01 pm

Frank and the rest of you guys Thank You!!  for all of your hard work...so sad that this is not our storm! Sad  (at least we did all of our math since we will probably have school tom Sad Sad )...just have a question....are  there any future storms you see on the horizon!! Wink

ps concerned about flash freezing tom night..will have to pack a bag for hubby to stay in city....good luck to all of you tom commuting!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:03 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Frank and the rest of you guys Thank You!!  for all of your hard work...so sad that this is not our storm! Sad  (at least we did all of our math since we will probably have school tom Sad Sad )...just have a question....are  there any future storms you see on the horizon!! Wink

Yes, check the long range thread. The 6th, 10th-12th, 15th...

Those time frames offer potential. Does not mean there will be a storm. We'll see.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:06 pm

Frank...Potential is good thing!!
Stay safe!!
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:12 pm

Yes, I said a few days ago these are Happy Days for the snow weenies here.Keep em' coming!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:19 pm

Very surprised to see these folks still calling for this much ice. Even though i dosagree, you have to respect them though and prepare for the worst.

Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm StormTotalIceFcst

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