Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm

[Frank_Wx]

Look at the temperature cut-offs most guidance is advertising for this storm. What's frustrating is the arctic air mass is there for the taking. The route this storm is taking is simply not conducive enough for a widespread moderate snowfall event. The front-end thump most of us are going to see should be impressive, still thinking at least 2-4"/3-6", but we should see a change to sleet and eventually plain rain.



The surface low is currently at 1006mb. As this system deepens, you will see it beginning to take more of a northward instead of easterly track. It does not help matters that there is also a 1028mb High off the coast of the Carolina's. Between that HP and the one in SE Canada, the path for this storm to take is through PA then slide over into NYC. It is not ideal and mid-levels are going to warm.



The band that is entering western PA will gradually shift northward as the storm begins to cut north. While it may look like it's on track to hit SE PA and SNJ, I think those areas end up getting dry slotted. This is shown nicely on the HRRR. Meanwhile, temps continue to warm ahead of this system.



You can see the models have really trended warm with this system right along the coast. Any snow/ice that falls initially could get swept away anyway by possible 1-1.50 inches of rain along eastern NJ, NYC, LI.

Here is my updated final snow map:



The frontogenesis is still expected to be impressive around 3-4am this evening, that's why I feel 3-4" even 5" of snow is still possible around NYC before the changeover to ice or rain. The ice threat is slightly diminishing in my opinion, but it still needs to be watched. Even .10" of ice is enough to cause issues on the roads. Another thing we have to look out for is for additional snow Monday afternoon. Believe it or not, this storm is not expected to deepen into the 980's once it's off our coast. Temps are going to come crashing down quickly and if any precip. is leftover we'll get additional accumulating snow. This applies mainly to the area circled in the yellow box.

Other then that, watch out for ice Tuesday morning. Standing water is going to easily freeze over with temps. crashing into the single digits. Enjoy the game. Be safe. Be smart

Use this as your observation thread. Storm is not too far off.

[jimv45]

in the 10 to 15 be happy with that! just hope things trend better for all you can never tell with the way this winter has gone who knows it could rain all the way to Albany!

[aiannone]

Just got upgraded to a warning here in NEVT at Lyndon State for 5-8". Bring it!

[Frank_Wx]

HRRR is very bullish. If you want to see the heaviest snow try and stay up between 2-4am

[billg315]

Frank your prediction of the leading band of precip. moving more northeast and some areas getting dry slotted at the outset makes sense. Would it be safe to assume (if that plays out) that the 6-8 p.m. start times some have suggested are probably a little early for central jersey? (I'm envisioning coming back from Hoboken post-Super Bowl tonight and hoping that not much will be happening before 10-11 p.m).

[Frank_Wx]

Frank your prediction of the leading band of precip. moving more northeast and some areas getting dry slotted at the outset makes sense. Would it be safe to assume (if that plays out) that the 6-8 p.m. start times some have suggested are probably a little early for central jersey? (I'm envisioning coming back from Hoboken post-Super Bowl tonight and hoping that not much will be happening before 10-11 p.m).

Yes, a later start time for those areas south of NNJ is entirely possible. Maybe just some light snow showers. Nothing too extreme. Keep an eye on radar though. Never know.

[Frank_Wx]

P.S. Areas in the purple and orange on the snow map can also expect 1-2 inches of rain.

[billg315]

Frank your prediction of the leading band of precip. moving more northeast and some areas getting dry slotted at the outset makes sense. Would it be safe to assume (if that plays out) that the 6-8 p.m. start times some have suggested are probably a little early for central jersey? (I'm envisioning coming back from Hoboken post-Super Bowl tonight and hoping that not much will be happening before 10-11 p.m).

Yes, a later start time for those areas south of NNJ is entirely possible. Maybe just some light snow showers. Nothing too extreme. Keep an eye on radar though. Never know.

Thanks. (and my eye will be drawn to the radar all evening!).

[Frank_Wx]

Upton is saying 3-8 inches of snow now in their discussion. Safe to say they are having a hard time with this one as well

[Frank_Wx]

[docstox12]

Frank, I'll be happy with that 6 to 12 for me.Thinking closer to 6 here with slop on top .Backend always questionable with these things.Will believe it when I see it.Storm just does not have big snowmaker written on it from me down south.Catskills snowstorm.

[Frank_Wx]

Imagine if this system with its size went back to its original storm track south of the area? Our area would be the jackpot zone with high ratio snow.

[WOLVES1]

Frank can you lie to me please, just tell me you see the storm moving south.

[docstox12]

It is a shame, it would have been a nice one.Oh well, let's hope the backend surprises when the developing storm draws in cold air.You never know, a good band here and there and you've got 2 to 3.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank can you lie to me please, just tell me you see the storm moving south.

[toople]

Frank can you lie to me please, just tell me you see the storm moving south.

He wouldn't be a good forcaster if he lied.

[cooladi]

Very concerned about getting to and from work both Monday and Tuesday. Can deal with snow but ice is a bigger problem for me. So afraid of slipping and breaking something. I'm going to watch how this develops carefully and possibly try to get in early Monday while it's still snow and make it home Monday before the deep freeze. Then if necessary I can take Tuesday to stay in when it likely will be ice everywhere with the forecast temps for Tuesday morning.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Frank if I made a map itd look exactly like yours, hrrr has heavy snow overnight but going to rain quickly between 4-6am depending on where you live

[jimv45]

I know this post was made for a different site but be happy for us that do good with this storm I know I want everyone to do well!

[docstox12]

I hear ya about that ice.Taking falls at my age,64, is not like you were 24.Severe damage is possible.Stay safe and watch out Tuesday, think it will be a disaster with the frozen slop, possible back end snow and black ice.I took nasty falls with fresh snow on top of ice below thinking it was ok.Good thing I was young.

[weatherwatchermom]

Frank and the rest of you guys Thank You!!  for all of your hard work...so sad that this is not our storm!  (at least we did all of our math since we will probably have school tom )...just have a question....are  there any future storms you see on the horizon!!

ps concerned about flash freezing tom night..will have to pack a bag for hubby to stay in city....good luck to all of you tom commuting!!

[Frank_Wx]

Frank and the rest of you guys Thank You!!  for all of your hard work...so sad that this is not our storm!  (at least we did all of our math since we will probably have school tom )...just have a question....are  there any future storms you see on the horizon!!

Yes, check the long range thread. The 6th, 10th-12th, 15th...

Those time frames offer potential. Does not mean there will be a storm. We'll see.

[weatherwatchermom]

Frank...Potential is good thing!!
Stay safe!!

[docstox12]

Yes, I said a few days ago these are Happy Days for the snow weenies here.Keep em' coming!!!

[Frank_Wx]

Very surprised to see these folks still calling for this much ice. Even though i dosagree, you have to respect them though and prepare for the worst.

[Sponsored content]