Re: Updated Snow Map & Observations Thread, 2/1-2/2 Storm

[jmanley32]

Holy crap:

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
401 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...AND MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 9 INCHES...ALONG WITH
AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN...THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

* WINDS...EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
LATE MONDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

[snow247]

Holy crap:

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
401 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
 INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...AND MUCH OF
 SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 9 INCHES...ALONG WITH
 AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
 MONDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
 FREEZING RAIN...THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

* WINDS...EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
 MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
 LATE MONDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT
 INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

Looks like no school tomorrow for most.

They went from 6-12 inches down to 4-9 too.

[Dtone]

that's what they were saying for me. Now they are going with 2 - 5" with .1 - .2 ice..mainly northern portions of NYC and LI.

[snow247]

GFS looks snowier from NYC north

[rb924119]

Now, I'm going to say this, but I DON'T WANT ANYBODY TO GET EXCITED, UPSET, OR ANYTHING ELSE; I'm simply making an observation that I have just spent the last hour pursuing, making sure I'm seeing with my eyes and not my heart. I just poured over every bit of detail of the temperature profile supplied by the SPC Meso-analysis page, found here:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/850mb/850mb_sf.gif?1422826421908

After comparing the 850 hPa forecast temperatures FOR 18z today (predictions for 3.5 hours ago) of the 12z GFS Op, the 12z EURO op, the 12z CMC Op, the 18z Hi-Res (4km) NAM, and the 18z RGEM, this is what I found (note, link are provided for your own analyses):

1). The GFS Op is way overdone with the warm air behind the system, and noticeably so ahead of it
http://www.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/12/GFS_12_opUS_T850C_0006.png

2). The CMC OP is way overdone with the warm air behind the system, and slightly so ahead of it
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015020112/gem_T850_us_2.png

3). The EURO Op is way overdone with the warm air behind the system, slightly so over IN but slightly underdone over OH.
http://www.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/ECM_12_opUS_T850C_0006.png

4). The 18z Hi-res (4km) NAM FOR THE CURRENT TIME is slightly too warm behind the system, perfect through IN, slightly too cold over OH but too warm over WV
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015020118/nam4km_T850_us_2.png

5. The 18z RGEM FOR THE CURRENT TIME is slightly too warm behind and ahead of the system, and noticeably too warm over WV.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020118/rgem_T850_us_2.png

I don't know, nor necessarily think, that this will make any difference in the grand scheme of things as we head into the overnight, but those were my observations. Again, I provided the links so you can see for yourselves and draw your own conclusions INDEPENDENTLY of mine. My conclusions are that many of the models are in fact overdoing the advancement of the warm air at the 850 hPa level. This does not necessarily mean that colder solutions are likely to verify, as I did not analyze other levels (e.g. 925 hPa), and so warm air could still be filtering as projected beneath the 850 hPa level. Remember unless I specifically said "FOR THE CURRENT TIME", the comparison was done between the current time observations from the SPC Meso-analysis page (see link at the top of this post) and the forecasts from the 12z operational runs of the Global models for 18z today (1pm).

Please feel free to disagree, agree, question; that's why I posted this- to have discussions.

[NjWeatherGuy]

18z runs look warmer at the surface to me than last nights runs were. Hey im fine with no ice tho but just means a lot of ppls.forecasts r.going to bust again.

[Math23x7]

General model guidance backs off of the threat of ice for NYC and LI and pushes it north of NYC. Even if this is correct and we go straight from snow to plain rain by dawn, there will be some flooding issues from melting snow on roadways. I am not ready to rule out ice, though. Anybody recall the ice storm that happened two weeks ago from NYC north and west (Sunday January 18th). Well, the day before, the National Weather Service issued a freezing rain advisory for this region. After seeing surface temperatures warmer than expected, they dropped the advisories about an hour or so before the precipitation came in. Well to everyone's surprise (myself included), surface temperatures turned out to be below freezing prompting the NWS to put the advisories back up at 8 AM. It shutdown major roadways in our area before it finally changed over to plain rain. As a reminder, this was the most dramatic video of the event from the NJ Turnpike Exit 9 near New Brunswick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7ApxVyskuI

[amugs]

Holy crap:

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
401 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
 INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...AND MUCH OF
 SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 9 INCHES...ALONG WITH
 AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
 MONDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
 FREEZING RAIN...THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

* WINDS...EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
 MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
 LATE MONDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT
 INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

Looks like no school tomorrow for most.

They went from 6-12 inches down to 4-9 too.

LOCK IT UP SCHOOL CANCELLED PEEPS - they see this forecast and they shiver - ice ice baby.

Done with the globals at this point - onto Short Range Models $K HIR RES NAM







If this verifies HOLY CRAP we are in for a crippling storm up here in NNJ!!! Trend south or better yet put a call into Canada and realease teh butterflies!

[jmanley32]

ya math that video was insane, notice the car on fire behind it and something else hits him as the guy passes buy. He looked ok but that driver of the car i wondered.

[jmanley32]

mugs thats pretty bad here but your less on the cusp than I am, this could be very bad AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING, but its a crap shoot, wake up in the AM, DeBlasio even made mention of making a final decision on NYC schools. Watch NWS ice map to go up even more if this bad trend continues. BTW mugs, does that area have a ice map like Upton? I would be curious to see what that areas forecast is.

[jmanley32]

can we say immensly dangerous commute?!

[2004blackwrx]

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Based on the qpf forecasted and temps I could see a sweet spot for the snow set up around I-84.

[jmanley32]

Totals have stuck like this past over a day now, .25-1.00 ice, serious business. unNAMed model likes to overdo precip sometimes though. 18z, after its all over. A potential crippling as mugs put it ice storm in some areas including mine, last thing we need is to lose power with those temps coming in monday night ugg. I know many here do not believe this but note NYC is pretty much out, its all north and west. And even my area is borderline, but i am always colder than NYC. I respect all forecasts here but have to take pros like NWS seriously too.

[sroc4]

The confluence over the Canaain Maritime actually looks like it is trying to lift out and PV is centered well up in the NE HudsonBay.

[rb924119]

Pic isn't showing up, Sroc.

[jmanley32]

it is here try refresh rb.

[sroc4]

Pic isn't showing up, Sroc.

How bout now?

[rb924119]

it is here try refresh rb.

Got it lol

[NjWeatherGuy]

Temp will get to 35 here looks like im going to work 

[sroc4]

Look at this. PV def needed to be further S into the H B. What a waste of a block. Look at those heights into Greenland. I hope at least some of my buddies on this board benefits from this storm. Ill take whatever mother nature gives me and move on to the next one. Thank God its an active pattern. This system chaps my ars.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-87.89,47.58,1024

[snow247]

Feeling fairly confident with 7"-10" max. here before the ice comes, and probably 10"+ just over the mountains in Doc and CP land.

[Frank_Wx]

The first WAA is not as impressive as the second one expected to come overnight

[weatherwatchermom]

The first WAA is not as impressive as the second one expected to come overnight

does that mean we are going to start out cooler than expected for now...its raw out right now...got that feel of snow in the air...or is that my imagination??

[SNOW MAN]

28* calm wind and starting to snow very lightly.

[Taffy]

Snow man, I'm 70 miles from you so my nose will be plastered to the window like a puppy. I can't wait for this to begin. I want to see what happens for real!

[Guest]

The Southern Tier of NY contingent reporting in with approx 20 F and steady light snow.

[SNOW MAN]

Snow man,  I'm 70 miles from you so my nose will be plastered to the window like a puppy. I can't wait for this to begin. I want to see what happens for real!

I know just what you mean. Once it starts snowing just can't help but keep looking outside at it. It's just a beautiful site.

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