NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Page 1 of 16 1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 16  Next

Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:37 pm

A short wave ejecting out of the Baja upper low in the SW CONUS will move across the country into our area by Tuesday morning. The questions that have to be asked are:

1. How amplified will it be by the time it gets here?
2. Can it dig into the flow a bit given the -EPO/+PNA set-up in the west and help raise heights along the EC enough to draw the surface track low closer to the coast.

While this strictly southern stream driven system could be moisture laden with the help of the Gulf, it will also move into a very cold & dry air mass once it reaches our latitude. The precip. shield will be expansive, but the rate of the precip. remains unknown. Also, how far north the surface low gets is dependent on the hypothetical questions I mentioned above.

Given some of these uncertainties, this is my 1st call snow map. I will issue a final call by tomorrow afternoon.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations 10989129_889441031107657_2347818906336222316_n

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:41 pm

Wow, 12z GGEM is basically a non-event. Even for DC and they just issued winter storm warnings.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:53 pm

Haven't watched any mets tonight, had nbc on after SNL they have 3-6 south jerz* 6-8 on the high end. 6pm ABC had 1-3 for the city anybody know if theY changed
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:02 am

00z UKMET looks great still

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations P1_GZ_D5_PN_036_0000

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:03 am

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations PA_000-060_0000

Probably 4-7 inches for NYC

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:04 am

00z GEFS are AGAINST the 00z GFS OP. Brings much more snow into NYC, probably 3-6"

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:06 am

Im concerned about a last minute south trend, straddling the edge as it is puts us in a very vulnerable spot for any trends, CMC worries me.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:08 am

Well the UKMET and GEFS coming out still pretty wet is not as concerning. I can not stay up for EURO tonight but it'll probably show less than its 12z run. Just my guess. We'll see how things play out tomorrow.

Buonanotte a tutti

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by devsman Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:23 am

what in the hell are going on with the models?!! I would figure that with every model bust we have had, this will be the opposite. Look for 5-10 inches on LI.
devsman
devsman
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 424
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 45
Location : merrick, ny (south shore of Long Island)

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:40 am

Regardless of what we get, at least it's still adding to our glacier.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:48 am

00z EURO has initialized, let's do this. Give us something great to look forward to tomorrow night/Tuesday and beyond!
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:53 am

No major changes through hour 12, precip shield is expanded slightly north.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:56 am

Hour 18 precip shield is still slightly north.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:57 am

But the actual low looks a bit further south.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:58 am

Hour 30 this thing looks south. Really.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:00 am

Hour 36 light snow NYC, mod snow PHI. Looks quite a bit south compared to 12z. Great, just what we needed.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:02 am

Euro just looks like a glancing blow for anyone north of Philly. So glad we all waste our time tracking these pathetic storm threats.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:06 am

Only 1-2 inches for NYC on the Euro, more in central/southern Jersey and LI, an inch or less for the HV and elsewhere north of the city.

Next.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:08 am

@snow247 wrote:Only 1-2 inches for NYC on the Euro, more in central/southern Jersey and LI, an inch or less for the HV and elsewhere north of the city.

Next.

With ratios it's a solid 3-4"

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Ecmwf_tsnow_nyc_9

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:09 am

Also, keep the "next" comments in banter thread. This was never hyped to be a big deal. It has potential a couple of days ago, but that is why I always say 1 storm at a time. This 50/50 low which was our weekend storm is causing havoc on our heights.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:10 am

True, hopefully models are just struggling and will correct NW starting with 6z. Who knows anymore lol.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:12 am

From someone on the other board:

"St Louis MO already reporting 6 inches with this system way ahead of time thanks to ratios..."

Maybe bodes well for us, it will be cold.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:13 am

Euro shows some light snow for our area on Thursday morning.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:33 am

Jeff Smith said 1 to 3 for NYC, Frank a little more at 2 to 4.With ratios, maybe I can squeeze out an inch or two up in the HV.This is looking to be south of me ATM.We'll see the trends later tonight.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:37 am

2" on EURO would probably be 4 with ratios, ehh, still a decent hit as long as it doesnt trend south anymore.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 16 1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 16  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum