February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

A short wave ejecting out of the Baja upper low in the SW CONUS will move across the country into our area by Tuesday morning. The questions that have to be asked are:

1. How amplified will it be by the time it gets here?
2. Can it dig into the flow a bit given the -EPO/+PNA set-up in the west and help raise heights along the EC enough to draw the surface track low closer to the coast.

While this strictly southern stream driven system could be moisture laden with the help of the Gulf, it will also move into a very cold & dry air mass once it reaches our latitude. The precip. shield will be expansive, but the rate of the precip. remains unknown. Also, how far north the surface low gets is dependent on the hypothetical questions I mentioned above.

Given some of these uncertainties, this is my 1st call snow map. I will issue a final call by tomorrow afternoon.

Wow, 12z GGEM is basically a non-event. Even for DC and they just issued winter storm warnings.

Haven't watched any mets tonight, had nbc on after SNL they have 3-6 south jerz* 6-8 on the high end. 6pm ABC had 1-3 for the city anybody know if theY changed

00z UKMET looks great still

Probably 4-7 inches for NYC

00z GEFS are AGAINST the 00z GFS OP. Brings much more snow into NYC, probably 3-6"

Im concerned about a last minute south trend, straddling the edge as it is puts us in a very vulnerable spot for any trends, CMC worries me.

Well the UKMET and GEFS coming out still pretty wet is not as concerning. I can not stay up for EURO tonight but it'll probably show less than its 12z run. Just my guess. We'll see how things play out tomorrow.

Buonanotte a tutti

what in the hell are going on with the models?!! I would figure that with every model bust we have had, this will be the opposite. Look for 5-10 inches on LI.

Regardless of what we get, at least it's still adding to our glacier.

00z EURO has initialized, let's do this. Give us something great to look forward to tomorrow night/Tuesday and beyond!

No major changes through hour 12, precip shield is expanded slightly north.

Hour 18 precip shield is still slightly north.

But the actual low looks a bit further south.

Hour 30 this thing looks south. Really.

Hour 36 light snow NYC, mod snow PHI. Looks quite a bit south compared to 12z. Great, just what we needed.

Euro just looks like a glancing blow for anyone north of Philly. So glad we all waste our time tracking these pathetic storm threats.

Only 1-2 inches for NYC on the Euro, more in central/southern Jersey and LI, an inch or less for the HV and elsewhere north of the city.

Next.

snow247 wrote:Only 1-2 inches for NYC on the Euro, more in central/southern Jersey and LI, an inch or less for the HV and elsewhere north of the city.

Next.

With ratios it's a solid 3-4"

Also, keep the "next" comments in banter thread. This was never hyped to be a big deal. It has potential a couple of days ago, but that is why I always say 1 storm at a time. This 50/50 low which was our weekend storm is causing havoc on our heights.

True, hopefully models are just struggling and will correct NW starting with 6z. Who knows anymore lol.

From someone on the other board:

"St Louis MO already reporting 6 inches with this system way ahead of time thanks to ratios..."

Maybe bodes well for us, it will be cold.

Euro shows some light snow for our area on Thursday morning.

Jeff Smith said 1 to 3 for NYC, Frank a little more at 2 to 4.With ratios, maybe I can squeeze out an inch or two up in the HV.This is looking to be south of me ATM.We'll see the trends later tonight.

2" on EURO would probably be 4 with ratios, ehh, still a decent hit as long as it doesnt trend south anymore.