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Long Range Thread 7.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:56 pm

Hello all,

As some of you know I am a co-admin in another forum (www.usa-wx.com). During the storm from a couple of days ago, Joe Bastardi came onto the forum and put out an amazing post. I started a new long range thread in that forum and it opens with Bastardi's post. Right below it, I make a follow-up post that highlights what we can expect the rest of February and possibly to open the month of March. Please click on the link and read both Bastardi's post and mine. I figure this was a great way to start a new long range thread on this forum.

**YOU HAVE TO REGISTER TO READ BOTH POSTS. IF YOU RATHER NOT, JUST SCROLL 2 POSTS DOWN. I PASTED BOTH POSTS HERE**

http://www.usa-wx.com/index.php?/topic/3608-long-range-the-rest-of-winter/

Thank You,

Frank


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:10 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:59 pm

I need to be a member on that site asking for password
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:01 pm

Frank, don't forget us when your on top.

I also have the same problem as Skins, signing in.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:09 pm

You have to sign up in order to view the post. If you rather not, here are both mine and JB's posts.

Joe Bastardi

"Heh guys ( and gals, wanna be diverse) PB told me what a great forum this is and I just wanted to say Hi. I dont have time given what we are trying to do at weatherbell ( building a company from scratch) to get out much nowadays, like meet and greets and blogs, but whether you like me or not, we all share one thing,, an abiding love for the weather. I will say this. In the weather woe index I am developing to quantify winter with cold and snow, the month of February in NY and New England could be the worst on record. The spread back west and south is occurring and I think our analogs to 58/69/78 are taking over.
It has been a very interesting winter, like a family reunion with analogs where each of the analogs, instead of just getting hammered and hanging out nicely ( example last year we had 17/18 and 93/94 and they took over and ran the table for the winter) they have been fighting. 76 was out in front, then we saw, imo 57-58 and 06-07 come to the front ( warm) The great winters of 02/03 and 09/10 had the benefit of December snow, but they all had their winters over moments too!. Every time I thought 77-78 was ready to roll, ( end of dec and the first 15 days of Jan) sure enough another one took over. But I think it is because we are in another great climatic shift and its a jailbreak. The sudden drop of the AMO the last 2 years is something I did not think was coming till around 2020. The Pacific with the warm PDO look now, very similar to the late 1950s, where it spiked warm will flip back in a couple years cold,, But all this is going on along with a QBO that when it wasnt snowing, was being argued one way and when it does, the other. Low Geo magnetic index, positive AO/NAO, neg EPO.. it goes on and on, a wonderful war demonstrating the majesty of the creation

Here is what I hope you can take away from this. By watching all this, you are forming the foundation needed to a) nail things in the future and b ) not be taken by people who say this is being driven by anything other than nature in her eternal fight to balance out what she cant because of the design. Many times the goal, be it a foot of snow, or 0 in NYC or you nailing a forecast over the next guy , gets in the way of the lesson of the journey this is. The great Frank Zane a 3x Mr Olympia, once wrote an article that was entitled, when I train I search. Well this is no different, you are searching for something to satisfy a hunger that is in you, put there and one that calls you everytime a challenge appears. There is so much talent on these boards it unbelievable. From my biggest detractor, to my most loyal supporter, I see light in all that only a true lover of the weather has. So no matter what, try to step back and listen to what the atmosphere is saying to you. My dad used to say that. Norm Macdonald, of WBZ fame used too. What is the weather trying to tell me. Then have fun and tell others. But remember in the end its the journey that teaches you, not the result"


Frank

The above post comes from Joe Bastardi himself. While the February 14th storm did not work out for the NYC Metro area, it was still a great day just because "JB" himself was able to grace us with his presence here on USAwx. A shout out to PB for making it happen. What I want people to take away from his post are the analogs.

1957-1958
1975-1976
1977-1978
2002-2003
2006-2007
2009-2010

If you dig deep you will find that this winter has had a "flavor" of each of those winters. That is what Bastardi is saying in his post. With another 5 weeks of winter to go (2 if you just go by Meteorological), there is still time to see which one of those analogs want to "step up" with our remaining time. And if you think about, what JB said makes sense. Who can forget the painful start to winter through mid-January with storms cutting to our west and temps. ranging above normal. Suddenly, it is as if someone hit the light switch and we have been in a very cold and snowy stretch, especially those north of NYC and into New England. This leads us to ponder how the remainder of February and March will pan out.

Remainder of February:

The remainder of this week we are looking at much below normal temperatures with a couple minor snowfall events. One tomorrow and another Wednesday night. Thursday & Friday night, temps. are going to plummet and NYC has a chance of going below zero. This weekend and next week there are additional storm threats to track. As you'll see from the 18z GEFS, the former storm has an impressive -EPO but the southeast ridge is trying to amplify due to the -PNA brought about from s/w digging into the southwest CONUS. This actually looks like a similar pattern we saw earlier this winter, except this time, I think we have the PV in a favorable spot that may prevent our SLP from cutting to our west. It's all about being on the cold side of the temp. gradient. We'll see where trends go over the coming days.

Long Range Thread 7.0 Gefs_z500a_noram_27

The next storm threat comes around the 24th. By this time, not only will the EPO still be negative but the PNA should switch to positive. The -EPO/+PNA couplet will result in a mean trough over the east and it will not take much to get a s/w to eject out of the STJ and get a storm into our area with cold air in place.

Long Range Thread 7.0 Gefs_z500a_noram_33

That will pretty much do it for February. It's likely to end far below normal, probably a top 10 coldest February, but that remains to be seen and I do not have the stats on it.

March

Both the GEFS and ECM Weeklies suggest the Pacific will breakdown and mild air will flood the country. The GEFS have been a little better than the Weeklies this winter but the fact they are both in agreement should raise an eyebrow.

Long Range Thread 7.0 Ecmwf50f216

The NAO, once again, has been a problem for us this winter. In fact, it was an even bigger problem this year than it was last year. If the EURO is right, the PV is going to retreat back to the Arctic to open March and that is going to take with it our cold air source. With an EPO reverting positive and a PNA possibly negative, this indeed will allow mild Pacific air to flow through the country. It is still a long way off so it remains to be seen if current guidance stays on its current path, but that is what they are showing now. I did see the CFS is predicting a colder than normal March. With the way guidance has performed this winter I would expect the worse but hope for the best. Focus your attention on the next 2 storm threats, for now.

As Bastardi likes to say, ciao for now!

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:26 pm

Very enjoyable read by Joe B and yourself, Frank.

Like those analog comparisons because whatever drives a winter pattern happened that way once before sometime.

Even if that Pac mild air floods in March, ocean temps are cold and if a storm can bomb out and drag colder air from the NE, you can still get big snow.Starting to think, though, that the price of this extremely cold February will have to be paid.Hoping it stays cold in march and it's paid by a warm April when we are ready for the warmer weather of Spring.

Anyway, things still active and more of Feb to go.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:27 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Frank, don't forget us when your on top.

I also have the same problem as Skins, signing in.

Frank will say "CP...Who???",LOL
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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:48 pm

Docs I would like to see you take over wouldn't miss a beat.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:54 pm

Jim,thanks for the boost but I am an analog man in a digital world and the guys who would take over if Frank hit the bigtime would be Doc, Ryan, Mugsy, Algae, or Math or others.

I plug in my historical perspective and provide a few laughs.

I will say I like the chances for more snow the next two weeks with the lingering cold air.Something big has to come our way, we are overdue.


Last edited by docstox12 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:58 pm

There you go hope so one more big one would be great.

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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:03 pm

I know its early but I heard this weekend might be good.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:11 pm

Hate to say this, but the 00z GFS is looking like the EURO so far for the Sunday threat.....

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:17 pm

Unlike the EURO, thought, it actually shears the low out along the frontal boundary as it sweeps through which keeps it a colder solution. If it remained organized, more WAA would have been able take place. Light event (2-4") for northern and western areas only on this run. I see a strong trend toward the EURO on this run, but there's a long way to go with this one.

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:20 pm

Plenty of time left for this to trend better. Not sure though given the trends this winter.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:37 pm

00z GFS is much better than 18z was, that's for sure.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:39 pm

00z GFS snow map shows 3"-6" of snow for the area for the late weekend storm. So close to being something bigger.

Very curious to see what the EURO shows.
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Post by snow247 Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:25 am

00z EURO may show something for us with the weekend system. storm coming towards us at hour 114, hopefully it doesn't cut nor stay suppressed.
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Post by snow247 Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:30 am

00z EURO gives us the storm this weekend, but it doesn't appear to bomb out or anything and it looks a bit warm, not a lakes cutter though.

Still time to change for the better of course.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:00 am

Frank Great post above man. That JB post could have been one of his best.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by lglickman1 Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:16 am

NWS thinks we get a bit of slopfest with freezing rain on sunday? Any reason to think this will trend colder and stay all snow?

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Post by RJB8525 Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:19 am

Wednesday could be the next better chance correct? All mets have been joking on how its going to hit 40 for a few minutes until the hammer drops and temps come down lol. 40 to 18 at night in a day..crazy
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:31 am

lglickman1 wrote:NWS thinks we get a bit of slopfest with freezing rain on sunday?  Any reason to think this will trend colder and stay all snow?

Plenty of reasons to think it certainly can. Still plenty of uncertainty pertaining to where the frontal boundary ends up, and how and where LP develops along it. As we should all have learned that nothing is set in stone until the system has passed. Obv it is also possible a slop fest is the answer as well.

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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by snow247 Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:06 pm

Heard that the GGEM has 9"-14" of snow just north of NYC for the weekend storm.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:14 pm

snow247 wrote:Heard that the GGEM has 9"-14" of snow just north of NYC for the weekend storm.

wxbell map shows 6-9, including NYC, less on LI its a small strip, ill post the map in banter since its not 92 hrs yet (can't be more than that will be too warm for high ratios).  Looks warm and simulated p-type radar shows a period for frz yet again for NYC, maybe a 3-6 hr period by what I can see, but no rain.  Def differs from GFS.
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Post by oldtimer Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:16 pm

TWC Sat 32* 60% snow Sun 43* 60% rain

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:19 pm

oldtimer wrote:TWC   Sat 32* 60% snow  Sun 43* 60% rain  

That's the blessing and curse of LI, sometimes it pays to be that far east and other times it backfires.
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