Re: Long Range Thread 7.0

[Frank_Wx]

Way too much energy undercutting the EPO ridge on the GFS. -PNA enhances the SE Ridge too much. Quick front end thump to rain.

[rb924119]

Yeah Frank, I don't expect much good to come of this storm, unfortunately :/

[jmanley32]

we do not have a ton of snow left here if it gets all washed away, and I do not know about this winter but aren't things pretty much going to wrap up in the next 4 weeks or so? I know we can get snow into April but do we see End of Feb and March being snowy or rainy?

[jmanley32]

Your wind man is back, weekend was crazy preparing two papers, final semester so if i disappear for days at a time do not worry lol. Per 00z GFS its one heck of a wind event too, entire area even way inland 40-70mph gusts, yeah I know its 120 hrs out and this will change plus its going to be partially rain so I imagine it would need convection to bring it all down but verbatim this is bad news if we get major ground saturation and these kinda winds. Not expecting this to happen, but could this be such a intense storm system Frank?

[jmanley32]

Ick, 1-3 inches of rain, bye bye snow if this were to verify, What a mess this would be.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Suppsed to be 28/10F the nxt day after if you took cutter soln verbatim. Might have ice sandwich in my yard where its ice, crusty snow, now fluffy snow and if it rains and refreezed again there will be ice on top again.

[2004blackwrx]

how far north are we seeing rain. I do best when south of me is a mix and rain. Sorry everyone.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

If the storm cuts west of us HV goes to rain too. There are some laws of weather that you just don't break. Just hoping it stays south and east.

[algae888]

00z gfs solution very unlikely imo. 2-3"qpf mostly as rain am not buying it. euro and cmc look more realistic. look at diff. between nam and gfs at 1pm sat. look for gfs to tone down today. think more like .5-1"qpf with snow to ice then rain at end.

nam 6z

gfs

cmc look at all that cold air along Canadian border. wow this storm is going to cut into that?

top is 850's this is surface

[SNOW MAN]

We just can't get the right ingredients together to give us a decent storm. I watched the Mets out at Penn State Monday evening and this guy said one of the models (think it was the Euro) showed it would cut up to the lakes.
He said that was a ridiculous possibility. Hmm, doesn't look so ridiculous as of right now.
I hope there's a possibility this changes. If not I'd rather have plain rain at least I won't have to shovel SLOP.

[algae888]

big differences on 6z gfs already, still very warm but much weaker low.

00z

[algae888]

another big diff on 6z gfs is hp in c Canada is 8mb stronger than 00z. think that this may push low further south and east on later runs if this hp continues ot be stronger than previously modeled on gfs.

6z

00z

[algae888]

about the pattern change coming in early march this is from a met from another board...
"The fact the Euro does not really want to show any evidence of the pattern breaking I'm not so sure I buy the GFS, it tried this as well several weeks ago and the Euro did not buy it and within several days the GFS began modifying the wild increase in the AO/NAO and PNA."

gfs has all three indices raging in the wrong direction for us. esp the ao. I noticed yesterday the gfs has started to tone down these extremes. look for this trend to continue

[algae888]

I think our best hope for this weekend storm is that it comes in waves. so a front end dump with the first wave followed by some drizzle/light rain (dry slot) and then a second wave forms and rain turns to snow. the front is modeled to be a slow mover with that strong hp to our east so they show we will have a few waves of lp ride along the front. however with such a progressive pattern we have been in wouldn't be surprised if everything moved faster. still a lot to be ironed out with weekend storm.

[algae888]

total qpf for gfs

00z

6z

[sroc4]

big differences on 6z gfs already, still very warm but much weaker low.

00z

Sit back and look at the two large HP's. You have one huge Arctic HP centered over the N Plains and the Other centered just N of Bermuda. You can see the LP has no where else to go but to cut ie: the path of least resistance verbatim. If it does come in waves I can see back end snow for some with this soln.

[sroc4]

I still think some sleet and freezing rain may affect interior sections very early Sunday morning. NW NJ, N HV Interior CT. Still have to watch that. Fortunately IF we get a brief period, and it shouldn't last for long, of freezing rain or sleet it shouldn't have many impacts as it would come in the weee hrs od Sunday.

[SNOW MAN]

Doc, what's your thought's on accumulations for the area ? I'm in the Pocono region, will we see more snow before it goes over to a mix ? Thanks.

[sroc4]

Doc, what's your thought's on accumulations for the area ? I'm in the Pocono region, will we see more snow before it goes over to a mix ? Thanks.

Hey Snow Man, to be honest I have not look much in the way of accumulations just yet. Models are still trending with this one. How far west does it cut? How strong will the LP be? Will it end up being in two waves? One thing I will say that the initial over running event before the initial LP reaches our latitude regardless of where it cuts may provide a decent front end thump if the warm air transport trends wetter. We will just have to wait and see.

[SNOW MAN]

Thanks Doc. I hope it turns out like you mentioned in your earlier post.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Al thanks for the great analysis and at least some hope for this weekend and against the March pattern change.

[rb924119]

Well, before we all start jumping off a cliff, I was just perusing the EURO ensembles and the Operational is in the warmest 15% of its own ensemble.

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/ECM_00_enUS_T85S_0102.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/ECM_00_enUS_T85S_0108.png
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/ECM_00_enUS_T85S_0114.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/ECM_00_enUS_T85S_0120.png
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/ECM_00_enUS_T85S_0126.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/ECM_00_enUS_T85S_0132.png

Here's the ensemble mean snowfall based on 10:1 (includes tonight and tomorrow as well):

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/snosums/0120/ECM_00_enUS_SF_0138.png

GFS ensembles are not nearly as promising, as the Operational is right in the middle of the spread:

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/GFS_06_enUS_T85S_0090.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/GFS_06_enUS_T85S_0096.png
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/GFS_06_enUS_T85S_0102.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/GFS_06_enUS_T85S_0108.png
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/GFS_06_enUS_T85S_0114.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/GFS_06_enUS_T85S_0120.png
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/GFS_06_enUS_T85S_0126.png

And, to restore your faith, the CMC/GEM Ensembles are in agreement with the EURO ensembles:

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/CAN/EN/00/CAN_00_enUS_T85S_0096.png
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/CAN/EN/00/CAN_00_enUS_T85S_0102.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/CAN/EN/00/CAN_00_enUS_T85S_0108.png
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/CAN/EN/00/CAN_00_enUS_T85S_0114.png

[Frank_Wx]

I think the people who could possibly see accumulating snow from this will be N&W of NYC, including NEPA. Everyone else, I feel this will be mainly rain. Maybe a very brief period of snow/freezing rain to start. 1-2" of rain, too. Could be flood advisories issued out.

[Frank_Wx]

The 25th-26th time frame needs to be watched for possible Godzilla. I like the set-up.

[jmanley32]

I think the people who could possibly see accumulating snow from this will be N&W of NYC, including NEPA. Everyone else, I feel this will be mainly rain. Maybe a very brief period of snow/freezing rain to start. 1-2" of rain, too. Could be flood advisories issued out.

sounds fun, As much as I do not like that boston got so much snow I hope for them to be ok with the potential for disastrous flooding.

[jmanley32]

The 25th-26th time frame needs to be watched for possible Godzilla. I like the set-up.

I noted that a LP was coming around that time frame its off shore at this time but so far out I am sure this will change. How much more time do you think we have before we run out of time for snow storms?

[Mathgod55]

After mid-March the probability of significant accumulating snow diminishes greatly.

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