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Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22

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Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 Empty Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:24 am

Updated my final call snow map based on latest observations / guidance runs.

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 10320388_891959657522461_7819617775057102195_n

I went colder for the majority of the area and shifted the jackpot zone further south and east. Precipitation is moving in at a rapid rate this morning which means the more cold air we have to work with and less warm air we have to deal with (since there will not be as much precip. left to fall). Additionally, guidance is keying in on shifting the baroclinic zone further south and east as well. Areas just north or west of this zone will experience the greatest frontogenesis. Snowfall rates will be in the order of 1"-2" an hour. I do expect a changeover to ice and rain around NYC Metro still, but like I said, the amounts of precip that will be left probably won't be a lot. Coastal NJ and SNJ can expect a little more rain, hence the lower amounts.

**Isolated areas near the red jackpot zone that are in blue could see amounts greater than 6" as well.**

Should be an interesting storm to nowcast.

It looks healthy

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:31 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by mmanisca Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:29 am

Good call Frank. I noticed the colder air hanging a lot tougher than originally forecasted by the models and kind of figured by most of us to happen!
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:31 am

This comment was made on the 18th by Larry Cosgrove. This was when the LP was a strong GLC soln:
The latest model trends have a contiguous system which crosses middle Appalachia into PA and NJ. I account for snow cover, depth of cold air, and the fact that, for all of the warm air advecting north along the backside of the surface high, the push of warmer air gets subverted by the surge of Arctic values. Remember that cold air always wins out over warmth when a westerly component is noted with 500MB winds. So I see a changeover scenario whereas others may only be looking at rain.


So if you look at the current mesoscale analysis at 850mb you can see the flood gates are open for business to the GOM; the blue indicates the freezing line:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-87.32,35.91,2048

But as the comment states above 500mb is westerly:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-82.69,37.64,2048


The point here is that it is going to be a positive now cast for many on this board...I think...esp for my friends N and W.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:34 am

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 Usnj

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:35 am

@sroc4 wrote:This comment was made on the 18th by Larry Cosgrove.  This was when the LP was a strong GLC soln:  
The latest model trends have a contiguous system which crosses middle Appalachia into PA and NJ. I account for snow cover, depth of cold air, and the fact that, for all of the warm air advecting north along the backside of the surface high, the push of warmer air gets subverted by the surge of Arctic values. Remember that cold air always wins out over warmth when a westerly component is noted with 500MB winds. So I see a changeover scenario whereas others may only be looking at rain.


So if you look at the current mesoscale analysis at 850mb you can see the flood gates are open for business to the GOM; the blue indicates the freezing line:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-87.32,35.91,2048

But as the comment states above 500mb is westerly:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-82.69,37.64,2048


The point here is that it is going to be a positive now cast for many on this board...I think...esp for my friends N and W.

An excellent post. By you and LC.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:52 am

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 RAD_MOS_REG_NE_WINTER_ANI

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Post by lglickman1 Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:55 am

Did something change overnight that made upton change their snow amounts?

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:57 am

Looking at the soundings on the 06z gfs and nam for NYC, the columns are cold all afternoon, however between 9-midnight, there is a small rise in temps that would indicate freezing rain since the surface is still cold. Being NW of the city, I'm hoping we stay all snow. Both models show me at a total of about .5" liquid.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:00 am

One band just formed over central PA

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Post by HeresL Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:04 am

@lglickman1 wrote:Did something change overnight that made upton change their snow amounts?

I'm confused as well. Upton had me in 6-8 last night but down to 4-6 this morning...
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:08 am

Still only 9.9 degrees...wow

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:14 am

this is what we need to watch today as 540 stays south off most of the region as do 850"s. this is 925's as of 745am.hard to tell from this map but 0*c over west Virginia right now. need towatch how this layer progresses today.
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 925mb
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:16 am

the last blue dotted contour line over s/w west verginia is 0*c line. bottom center of page
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:16 am

Hrrr has area start snowing between 12 and 1...with temps between 25-30 degrees, lower in HV and PA.

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:22 am

Morning all, radar looks great! Fun day/night incoming.
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Post by oldtimer Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:24 am

14* High clouds calm

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:27 am

also if you look at map I posted above western Virginia is -9*c and western west Virginia is 0*c. look at how tight those lines are. this is where best lifting is occurring and matches well with heavier radar returns.
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:28 am

HRRR has R/S line making a northward push into area by 2z Sunday. By 3z south of I-195 is Raining
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 Hrrr_ref_neng_16

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:31 am

*whistles*

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 Centgrtlakes_loop

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:34 am

Hey Ace is this a close call as far as rain snow line or no
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:35 am

In looking at the radar, is anybody else concerned that this is moving too much west to east?

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:38 am

Maybe all this heavy cold air is suppressing it right now.
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Post by mancave25 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:48 am

To me it looks like it pivoting ne

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:49 am

12* here
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:51 am

look at what nam did with snowfall from 00z to 6z. any concerns?
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 Namconus_asnow_us_11
6z
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 Namconus_asnow_us_13
00z


Last edited by algae888 on Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:54 am; edited 1 time in total
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