Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Poo to you lol ace I said that earlier and I was told not to.pay attention to tgat.

jmanley32 wrote:Poo to you lol ace I said that earlier and I was told not to.pay attention to tgat.

It's super amplified and has a warm layer with the begining of the heavier precip...just stateing facts off the run. Many where mostly sleet

GEFS are VERY nice!

NWS NCEP map just came out with 9" snows for NYC Metro

snow247 wrote:GEFS are VERY nice!

Would you like to see.....? ;p

Here are the 18z GFS Ensemble MEAN snowfall totals BASED ON 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/18/snosums/0072/GFS_18_enUS_SF_0090.png

LET'S KEEP THE NORTHWARD TICK GOING ANOTHER 75 MILES AND WE ALL BENEFIT BIG-TIME!!!!

Whst is the ncep snow map?

GEFS ARE GREAT! HAVE NOT CHANGED, WELL ACTUALLYA TICK NW.

rb924119 wrote:Here are the 18z GFS Ensemble MEAN snowfall totals BASED ON 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/18/snosums/0072/GFS_18_enUS_SF_0090.png

LET'S KEEP THE NORTHWARD TICK GOING ANOTHER 75 MILES AND WE ALL BENEFIT BIG-TIME!!!!

Where is the sig line 8 to 12 for moi! Still big spread between models though it seems. But one thing seems pretty sure that we will have a storm. After 2 to 4 tomorrow and possible high storm thurs may make it close to last yrs total

Here's the kicker.....

There is clearly a bimodal distribution with how the southern half of the H5 evolution is being handled right now (see below):

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/18/GFS_18_enUS_H50S_0036.png

8 members of the 21-member ensemble are keeping the 552 dam line further north, which is resulting in much less interaction between the key pieces of energy. HOWEVER, the other 13 are now in favor a deeper H5 evolution, which to me says that we will continue to see this tick more north and west in subsequent runs, like I was saying this morning.

I also have a strong feeling that the models (all of them) are severely under-estimating QPF, given the extreme dynamics we are potentially looking at with this, but I cannot confirm that yet. I have some investigating to do lol

rb924119 wrote:I also have a strong feeling that the models (all of them) are severely under-estimating QPF, given the extreme dynamics we are potentially looking at with this, but I cannot confirm that yet. I have some investigating to do lol

So maybe back to godzilla potential in coming day or two? Love it when I talk dirty wx lol

jmanley32 wrote:Whst is the ncep snow map?

l

On my phone, can't post. Look at Ryan Maue's Twitter.

I'll let Frank make the official call on that one, but I certainly would not be surprised AT ALL

Just as some support to my thought, below you will see an image taken from the **GFS Op** (furthest south and east of the guidance) of 700 hPa winds (barbs) and precipitable water anomalies in the color shading (cooler colors for increasingly dry air and warmer colors for increasingly moist air). That is a steady stream of 2-3, and some embedded areas of 3-4 SIGMA WITH A LINK TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. For those who don't understand, that is in the the top ~17-1.5% percentile (for 2-3 sig.) and ~1.5-0.2% (for 3-4 sig.). In other words, that is highly anomalous amounts of water vapor in the air, and typically, models do not estimate precipitation well to begin with, but in extreme circumstances they get even worse. I'll try to find maps for the other models to see what they say, but I'm sure they're either in the same or possibly even in a higher ball-park lol

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_66.gif

let's just keep the 8-12 through the nyc/LI area and everything will be fine.

The NAM is between 2.5-3 sigma and the CMC/GEM is between 3-4.....that would be gnarly.

I'm pretty happy with all the runs I still think cnj in the jackpot with most of the runs except the nam

rb924119 wrote:I also have a strong feeling that the models (all of them) are severely under-estimating QPF, given the extreme dynamics we are potentially looking at with this, but I cannot confirm that yet. I have some investigating to do lol

Agree big time

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I also have a strong feeling that the models (all of them) are severely under-estimating QPF, given the extreme dynamics we are potentially looking at with this, but I cannot confirm that yet. I have some investigating to do lol

So maybe back to godzilla potential in coming day or two? Love it when I talk dirty wx lol

Godzilla potential has never left, just not as enthused about it over a widespread area like I was yesterday. But we'll see what short range guidance begins to show tonight

Hoping for a N/NW trend and a wetter trend! Very excited for the 00z runs and beyond!

rb924119 wrote:I also have a strong feeling that the models (all of them) are severely under-estimating QPF, given the extreme dynamics we are potentially looking at with this, but I cannot confirm that yet. I have some investigating to do lol

Absolutely RB. The global models are def typical for underestimating the QPF due to such dynamic physics. The last two storms the S/R models ESP the RGEM have done much better.

On the crawl  "GODZILLA REVISITED"

I'm nervous here. For the first time this winter season the NWS is being really bullish for my area 2 and a half days out. They already have me in 5 to 9" and over a 70% chance of greater than 4". Too early for this. Can't trend any better, only worse!!

I'm nervous as well, but I think CNJ is looking good for warning criteria!!

SREFS!!!! Can't post from mobile, but they are very nice.