Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:42 pm

yes it does say 2/5 lol, totally missed that. UKIE! Sign me up NOW! Such a big difference than other models though, highest as of right now. So I would take caution to that. If others trend I am sure Frank would put back his Go0dzilla potential, but not enough support, even UKIE is mainly 8-12 which is not a Godzilla, but still damn good!

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:43 pm

Might be further northwest though Wink

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:44 pm

IS THERE AN ICON FOR A JAW-DROP?!!!

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:44 pm

Holy crap NAM!

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:45 pm

It is definitely further northwest, though; maybe even too far for most on here :/ Don't start freaking out though, because it is an 18z run AND IT IS THE NAM

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:46 pm

Shit its a ice storm for the coast and well inland never turns to snow!

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:47 pm

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:48 pm

I know its the NAM and 18z but damn two ice storms back to back no good! And this would be a devastating one if it was frz, sleet would still be a big issue for driving though, no consensus on this one.

by **amugs** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:49 pm

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:49 pm

Jman, I know it's gonna hurt to hear this, but that is the optimal composite radar image for me, doc, Snow, and a couple others on here to get a corker storm lmao I'm sorry, but I'm wishing this run verifies lmfao Or the UKMET, either one would work lol

by **RJB8525** Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:52 pm

this could be the inland storm everyones been waiting for, coastal i don't know TBD it's only the model to not be mentioned

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:00 pm

We have absolutely NO idea which model will verify, but I am some kind of impressed by this from the latest 18z NAM:

Take a look at the 850 temperature/heights map:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_060_850_temp_ht.gif

Anybody wanna play "Find the front"???

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:07 pm

If you notice, look at the winds (barbs) in the Lower Mississippi Valley; there is almost a 180-degree wind shift across that boundary, and up to **60 knots** of large-scale gate-to-gate shear there coupled with the highly favorable right entrance region of an incredible jet streak (seen below)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_060_300_wnd_ht.gif

and very strong low-level moisture transport (on the 850 map you can also imply this by the winds in the Gulf)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_060_700_rh_ht.gif

If you look closely at the H7 map, you can see a second area of convergence east of the main line. This could actually be picking up a "feeder band" ahead of the main line associated with the front. These dynamics are ridiculous, and if they were to verify, not only would flooding be a very high concern across much of the Lower and Mid-Mississippi Valley, but so would flash-flooding. The layer-average ascent has to be off the charts here, and I can see tropical deluges occurring under this scenario. We would probably be watching the radar explode frame by frame.

***I STRESS AGAIN: IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY.***

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_060_700_rh_ht.gif

by **algae888** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:22 pm

nws going with 4-8 for my area

Wednesday Night
Rain likely before 11pm, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. West wind 5 to 11 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday
Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 24 by 5pm. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 10.

by **RJB8525** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:23 pm

they have me at

2-4 Wednesday night

Thursday Snow mainly before 11 additional 3-5 low 12

by **algae888** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:44 pm

RJB8525 wrote:they have me at

2-4 Wednesday night

Thursday Snow mainly before 11 additional 3-5 low 12

they are leaning towards the southern solution as nam is prob to far north. nam is farthest n/w and alone among models. nam in perfect spot att for nyc metro

by **algae888** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:51 pm

nws
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.[b][/b

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:52 pm

Nam shows all sleet though verbatim on their ptype map. US Thst wrong?

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:52 pm

Wwa issued for my area tomorrow 2 to 4.

by **algae888** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Nam shows all sleet though verbatim on their ptype map. US Thst wrong?

jon don't get caught up in p-type we are still 2 and a half days away. take from the nam that it is n/w since that is it's bias. if it was s/e I would be very concerned. will not have a good idea until 00z and more likely 12z wens.

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:57 pm

FWIW the crazy 18z NAM snow map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=DIX

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:59 pm

Wow 18z GFS Op crushes southern NJ:

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/18/snosums/0024/GFS_18_opUS_SF_0078.png

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:06 pm

The wxbell nam snow map shows a lot more than that for coast but al us right placement more important at this time.

by **Quietace** Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:The wxbell nam snow map shows a lot more than that for coast but al us right placement more important at this time.

That's because the NAM has a large amount of sleet with a warm later at 925mb at coastal sections

by **SNOW MAN** Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:Jman, I know it's gonna hurt to hear this, but that is the optimal composite radar image for me, doc, Snow, and a couple others on here to get a corker storm lmao I'm sorry, but I'm wishing this run verifies lmfao Or the UKMET, either one would work lol

I'm with you Rb. I hope this one works out for us. WOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO !!!!!!!

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:30 pm

Poo to you lol ace I said that earlier and I was told not to.pay attention to tgat.

by **Quietace** Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Poo to you lol ace I said that earlier and I was told not to.pay attention to tgat.

It's super amplified and has a warm layer with the begining of the heavier precip...just stateing facts off the run. Many where mostly sleet

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