Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

snow247 wrote:Hoping ratios help us out up here, but they never seem to really help much.

I don’t agree with that statement at all snow. The only reason we have 62 inches of snow this year is because of higher ratios and non-mixing issues in most of the storms because of colder temperatures. As Doc says there is a south and east bias with the storms it seems the last three years however we still end up with higher and usually much higher snowfall totals for the year then places to the south that seem to make out in some of these storms. What you forget is all of the times that those places to the south end up mixing or just changing to rain.

Also where you are in Rockland County and Pomona often gets shortchanged as compared to Orange County. I grew up in new city and I make that trek over Route six from Orange County into Rockland County at least twice a week and I see it all the time. The 20 to 25 mile jog north from Central Rockland County to Orange County makes a world of difference in many of these storms.

I’m hoping we all make out with this Thursday’s storm but in an area as diverse as ours were average snowfall of the season ranges from as low as 20 inches on the central New Jersey coast to as high as 60 inches in parts of the Hudson Valley that’s not usually the case. Maybe will buck the trend on this one but I’m not expecting it.

You sometimes cant argue with climo....Its a rare occurrence when we end up with more snow than the HV....its just the way the pattern works on the east coast. It favors elevated and northern areas. And i also agree on the snow ratios. We have had to deal with limited QPF on many system this year and have been lucky to have the snow growth and ratios we have had to get us to the snowfall we have now. If we were just working on 10:1 the whole year, you can throw maybe 1/3 of my 28 inches away....

6Z GEFS - Holding the line!!

06z GEFS total snowfall based on 10:1

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/snosums/0048/GFS_06_enUS_SF_0072.png

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

snow247 wrote:Hoping ratios help us out up here, but they never seem to really help much.

I don’t agree with that statement at all snow. The only reason we have 62 inches of snow this year is because of higher ratios and non-mixing issues in most of the storms because of colder temperatures. As Doc says there is a south and east bias with the storms it seems the last three years however we still end up with higher and usually much higher snowfall totals for the year then places to the south that seem to make out in some of these storms. What you forget is all of the times that those places to the south end up mixing or just changing to rain.

Also where you are in Rockland County and Pomona often gets shortchanged as compared to Orange County. I grew up in new city and I make that trek over Route six from Orange County into Rockland County at least twice a week and I see it all the time. The 20 to 25 mile jog north from Central Rockland County to Orange County makes a world of difference in many of these storms.

I’m hoping we all make out with this Thursday’s storm but in an area as diverse as ours where average snowfall for the season ranges from as low as 20 inches on the central New Jersey coast to as high as 60 inches in parts of the Hudson Valley that’s not usually the case. Maybe will buck the trend on this one but I’m not expecting it.

Sorry, I made that post when I was half-asleep this morning lol, I totally agree with you after reading this post, thanks for that. And also, you're right, my county always seems to get less than yours with almost every storm, it's strange since we are so close.

I want to just throw this out to my northern and western peeps. The last two overrunning events the set up has been to have arctic air in place as the waves of LP begin the WAA push. The models early show the highest totals slight west off the coast until the correct to the fact that the cold air wins and therefore the highest totals get deflected if you will towards the coast. Again this is where you have arctic air in place.

However in this set up, although it is an intense SWFE the arctic air will not be in place. In this set up the warm front actually pushes through because the initial LP is actually strong enough to cut and makes it far enough N and W to drag the warmer air into the area.

In the past two events the cutting LP was weaker than forecasted and reformed south of us just off the coast where as in this event there is a stronger LP that redevelops well s and W of us and rides up along the frontal boundary.

With the initial surge of moisture from this variation to the SWFE as indicated above relative to the last two systems, I think my peeps to the N and W still do just fine relative to the past two systems. I still have to see what kind of trends we see between now and tomorrow 12z however to know what just fine really means.

My point is this is a different set up than the past few systems. I do however think think that closer to the coast or the I-95 coastal plain will be jackpot due to the idea of the cold air surge still ends up deflecting the jack pot axis center S and E slightly compared to what what models are currently showing but we will see what the next 24hrs hold.

I truly thought yesterday looking at the ensembles that this would end up further west. Clearly a more progressive solution is now very likely to happen and the coastal plain/I-95 corridor is going to see the brunt of this system.

rb924119 wrote:I truly thought yesterday looking at the ensembles that this would end up further west. Clearly a more progressive solution is now very likely to happen and the coastal plain/I-95 corridor is going to see the brunt of this system.

Rb, what's your feeling on snow totals for our area ?

3-6, 2-5 maybe...

Thanks. Looks like we miss out on the bigger totals again. The reason I'm asking is because I commute to Whippany NJ. for work and I'm wondering if it's worth making the trip. It seems like that area will probably get more snow than us. Thinking maybe I'll make it a snow day. lol.

So I'm in the game! Can't wait to see Frank's mAp. Rb u still think qpf still under done?

Yeah, they're probably 4-8/5-9 range as it stands now. It seems like we just can't win this season. Oh well, not like we can do anything about it hahaha

Wowwww 12z NAM is way south through 46. Central/southern NJ had better look out on this run.

Northern folks...while there could be a sharp cut off with the qpf amounts I feel you would still make up for it with the ratios. Nothing set in stone yet anyway, but I don't see why the fussing.

Wow

Here was 48

frontogenesis spread north at 54

Lets keep it right here. Everyone wins.

Damn

There is not even a south trend. NAM was the outlier yesterday with such a N&W solution. So far, I think we're actually seeing some consistency. There may be room for another tick S&E due to the nature of the mid-level trough pressing down...but once again H7 forcing will help spread precip north regardless.

Total QPF

Before:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_036_precip_ptot.gif

After:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_054_precip_ptot.gif

And it's still snowing in the areas of purple.....

Verbatim that is a 9-14" snowfall for central and southern NJ, southeastern Pa

Frank_Wx wrote:There is not even a south trend. NAM was the outlier yesterday with such a N&W solution. So far, I think we're actually seeing some consistency. There may be room for another tick S&E due to the nature of the mid-level trough pressing down...but once again H7 forcing will help spread precip north regardless.

Well, there is with respect to the NAM hahahaha and with regards to the south/east tick, as this point, I can see it lol

Some of that qpf includes tonight and daytime tomorrow correct?  That means area wide we see from .6 nw to 1.5 se jersey Wed night thru Thursday. With higher ratios nw this model run would equate to 6 to 12 from NYC north and west and 12+ east and south of NYC!!  Does this sound about right frank?

I wonder if they will issue WSW for some of the area for Thursday as early as the 4pm update today?

My guess would be they wait till 4 AM tomorrow morning, if everything stays as is. With current trends and less criteria for WSW I would guess Mt. Holly jumps before Upton.