Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Some of that qpf includes tonight and daytime tomorrow correct?  That means area wide we see from .6 nw to 1.5 se jersey Wed night thru Thursday. With higher ratios nw this model run would equate to 6 to 12 from NYC north and west and 12+ east and south of NYC!!  Does this sound about right frank?

I wonder if they will issue WSW for some of the area for Thursday as early as the 4pm update today?

My guess would be they wait till 4 AM tomorrow morning, if everything stays as is. With current trends and less criteria for WSW I would guess Mt. Holly jumps before Upton.

Bring it on I-195 corridor. The NAM and SREFs have the heaviest banded precip in almost identical spots. This could be the closest the models have cd to agreeing all year!!

I second that biggin! Gonna be a wild ride starting tonight, lots of sleet and ice, tomorrow morning depending on how much actual rain washes it away could be very dangerous driving.

Hr 48 of the 12Z RGEM has NYC right on the edge of moderate snow. Close call there.

right now i think a 6-12 area wide with some spots southern NJ 12 plus!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I wonder if they will issue WSW for some of the area for Thursday as early as the 4pm update today?

My guess would be they wait till 4 AM tomorrow morning, if everything stays as is. With current trends and less criteria for WSW I would guess Mt. Holly jumps before Upton.

After the last debacle with Juno they will hold off CP until this snow and sleet fest is over. Christ, they have their hands full this week forecasting - NWS that is.

12z GFS is a good hit for NYC/LI. Godzilla for SNJ. Less N&W

RGEM not in deadly range yet - 18Z and 0Z we see it ready for the KILL along with GEMLAM - they show the qpf amounts SREF's and NAm then the Mugs (me) goes ballistic on this site!!! I see a correction with qpf fro more as Rb pointed out and Frank said with the STJ and GOM ready to dance with us for a change IMO. Exciting times ahead!!

Okay from my experiences and these SWFE take that red area and move it in a straight line along its axis plane that is parallel to the outer blue and green areas- on the same angle - sorry the drafting/engineering teacher came out there in me.

Could someone post a total QPF map for the Thursday storm from the latest NAM,hires NAM, and the GFS? On mobile so I can't do it but I would like to see the QPF amounts to figure out how much snow us northern posters would possibly get with ratios included. Thanks.

A disconcerting trend is at H5, in my opinion. (On the GFS at least). The mid-level trough begins to collapse and looks a little more strung out.

Too much time left. I am concerned with S E shifts

The RGEM is the only thing I'm listening to, and it shows a C/SNJ special as of now.

9z SREF's were nice for NYC I believe. 70% chance of 6+.

Frank_Wx wrote:A disconcerting trend is at H5, in my opinion. (On the GFS at least). The mid-level trough begins to collapse and looks a little more strung out.

Yes and it shifted a tad south as well. Let' see what the 12z Europeans have to say.

God at this rate I hope this is not like last year and misses the whole area with a continual shift to the south.

Also looks to have moved up in time at least on NAM to be a all day event on Thurs?

jmanley32 wrote:God at this rate I hope this is not like last year and misses the whole area with a continual shift to the south.

No bit if you look at the maps it is not lining up - Frank do you see what I mean - the H% looks strung out and a tic south but when you look at the snow maps there is not shift - snow growth? Maybe a blip?

And enter the WX hysteria on Twitter with many calling for a complete miss Thurs, nyc and points north. People are something.

Wow, 40% or so chance of 16+ in south jersey

50% exceeding 10+ N YC

SoulSingMG wrote:And enter the WX hysteria on Twitter with many calling for a complete miss Thurs, nyc and points north. People are something.

Gosh I hope they are wrong.....

This is why it's never good to be in the Bulls-eye 2-3 days out.

SoulSingMG wrote:This is why it's never good to be in the Bulls-eye 2-3 days out.

I still have faith we in for a good hit NYC tri-state. May not know until tomorrow once this first batch comes through which I hope is mostly snow, i'll take 1-3/3-5.

SoulSingMG wrote:This is why it's never good to be in the Bulls-eye 2-3 days out.

Who was bullseye. Its been showing cnj and snjonly Nam was north and it's the Nam lol

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:This is why it's never good to be in the Bulls-eye 2-3 days out.

I still have faith we in for a good hit NYC tri-state.  May not know until tomorrow once this first batch comes through which I hope is mostly snow, i'll take 1-3/3-5.

Jman are you hoping for those totals with tonight's storm?

skinsfan1177 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:This is why it's never good to be in the Bulls-eye 2-3 days out.

Who was bullseye. Its been showing cnj and snjonly Nam was north and it's the Nam lol

Euro, UKIE, were closer to Nam than GFS at 00z