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3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:54 am

Wow...GEM-LAM snow map is beautiful

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 A8naiCb

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:58 am

6z GFS H7 VV's

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 GfsNE_700_vvel_039


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Post by rb924119 Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:58 am

We'll see lol The last few times I'm pretty sure both the SREFs and the GEM-LAM were showing snowy solutions only to back off in the next runs. I'm still not sold on higher accumulations with this one, and it would seem that we are seeing two very opposite things in the players on the field.

In any event, I'm very sorry for the loss of your family member :/

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:59 am

Trending very nicely and the SREFS - holy cow!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:05 am

-EPO/-NAO bridge is very nice. If it were not for those signals, the storm would scoot out to sea.

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_namer_5

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Post by Grselig Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:10 am

Frank,
Sorry for you loss.

Wow, it would be so ironic if my area gets one of our biggest snow of the season in Spring (6 plus) Not counting on it, but would be fun.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:10 am

Too bad there is no phasing. Amazing what that Baja cut-off upper low can do to a storm to enhance it's intensity. That's the 2nd or 3rd time I have seen one this season while we get hit with a storm. Tropical air trying to override arctic air just brings with it incredible dynamics sometimes

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:12 am

@rb924119 wrote:We'll see lol The last few times I'm pretty sure both the SREFs and the GEM-LAM were showing snowy solutions only to back off in the next runs. I'm still not sold on higher accumulations with this one, and it would seem that we are seeing two very opposite things in the players on the field.

In any event, I'm very sorry for the loss of your family member :/

This is a situation where:

1. We have dual upper level jet streaks
2. Another Baja cut-off upper low is helping to feed the Pac s/w energy additional moisture/tropical air from the Gulf
3. H7 VV's overtaking much of eastern PA, NJ, NYC, CT
4. Climo plays a role, for sure, but not for those cold @ 925, 850, and the surface

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:15 am

12z NAM so far looks further south with the heaviest precip, a little warmer as well

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f32

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33


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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:16 am

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f34

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f35

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:17 am

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f33

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:18 am

12z NAM has a start time closer to Noon while GFS was around mid-morning

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:21 am

Frank I am sorry to hear about your loss.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:28 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:We'll see lol The last few times I'm pretty sure both the SREFs and the GEM-LAM were showing snowy solutions only to back off in the next runs. I'm still not sold on higher accumulations with this one, and it would seem that we are seeing two very opposite things in the players on the field.

In any event, I'm very sorry for the loss of your family member :/

This is a situation where:

1. We have dual upper level jet streaks
2. Another Baja cut-off upper low is helping to feed the Pac s/w energy additional moisture/tropical air from the Gulf
3. H7 VV's overtaking much of eastern PA, NJ, NYC, CT
4. Climo plays a role, for sure, but not for those cold @ 925, 850, and the surface

Here are my "arguments" against your claims (not really arguments, just a great discussion lol):

1. You're right, but the changes in speed relative to the jet cores are not that drastic, which will negate some of the forcing for ascent. The presence of an H3 ridge, albeit weak doesn't help our cause either.

2. If you look at the low and mid-level flow relative to the moisture feed, there isn't actually strong transport into our area. The flow is primarily from west to east; not southwest to northeast, which leaves us out of the brunt of the moisture fetch.

3. I would expect those velocities to actually begin to shift south and eastward in today's model runs, since that is where the best isentropic lift will be occurring concurrent with the other (relatively weak) synoptic-scale forcings from the jets/H5/isentropic lift.

4. The ground has become very warm, with several days in the 50s down there. With marginal temperatures, especially at the surface, it will take a while before the snow sticks, especially if it only falls lightly. You would need some pretty heavy snow for a sustained period in order to cool the ground enough to allow accumulations.

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Post by oldtimer Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:35 am

Frank So sorry for your loss I pray for all

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:46 am

Frank, sorry for your loss...prayers for your family..

I still have snow on half my yard at home, and I was at 22* overnight and will be again tonight. It was so windy here yesterday we were still pretty cold. I honestly think I will be in the 5-6" range here, the ground is not warm yet here....

btw, my family is ready to kill me...they are SO done with the snow and all the shovelling they have had to do!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:50 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:We'll see lol The last few times I'm pretty sure both the SREFs and the GEM-LAM were showing snowy solutions only to back off in the next runs. I'm still not sold on higher accumulations with this one, and it would seem that we are seeing two very opposite things in the players on the field.

In any event, I'm very sorry for the loss of your family member :/

This is a situation where:

1. We have dual upper level jet streaks
2. Another Baja cut-off upper low is helping to feed the Pac s/w energy additional moisture/tropical air from the Gulf
3. H7 VV's overtaking much of eastern PA, NJ, NYC, CT
4. Climo plays a role, for sure, but not for those cold @ 925, 850, and the surface

Here are my "arguments" against your claims (not really arguments, just a great discussion lol):

1. You're right, but the changes in speed relative to the jet cores are not that drastic, which will negate some of the forcing for ascent. The presence of an H3 ridge, albeit weak doesn't help our cause either.

2. If you look at the low and mid-level flow relative to the moisture feed, there isn't actually strong transport into our area. The flow is primarily from west to east; not southwest to northeast, which leaves us out of the brunt of the moisture fetch.

3. I would expect those velocities to actually begin to shift south and eastward in today's model runs, since that is where the best isentropic lift will be occurring concurrent with the other (relatively weak) synoptic-scale forcings from the jets/H5/isentropic lift.

4. The ground has become very warm, with several days in the 50s down there. With marginal temperatures, especially at the surface, it will take a while before the snow sticks, especially if it only falls lightly. You would need some pretty heavy snow for a sustained period in order to cool the ground enough to allow accumulations.

The difference between this system and the one back on March 5th is that the upper air energy evolved from the STJ on the latter storm, while on the former it is coming out of the Pacific Jet. There is not going to be an impressive precip shield with this system UNTIL it reaches our latitude and feels the effect of the NE wind. Yes, the orientation of the flow is more west to east than SW to NE so I imagine areas from NYC south benefit the most with the higher qpf amounts. In fact, some models are showing higher qpf amounts with this system than the March 5th storm so that says a lot about the frontogenesis.

Iv'e been saying stickage will be primarily over grass and colder non-paved surfaces, while roadways will take awhile to get cold enough. It's spring and the storm itself lacks dynamics.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:43 am

GFS ain't playin'

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f39

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:52 am

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 VKWLsF0

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:55 am

I want to see tonights short range models agree and Ill buy in

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:17 pm

Dang so 7-10 for right around NYC and south on SREF, 6-8 GFS this is a nice trend, lets keep it up. Glad to know CP, will keep my ruler handy. Looks like on both the 32 line stays well south of city entire time too, that's a good thing.
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:18 pm

H7 jet streak stronger on GFS for better lift

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map  - Page 2 2h3r6sl

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:21 pm

i hope it "sticks" quick and doesn't play games then we start guessing with now casting
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:43 pm

CMC cold but further south whith much less QPF compared to GFS

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:46 pm

@sroc4 wrote:CMC cold but further south whith much less QPF compared to GFS

It is not that it's further south - the surface low track is about the same as the GFS - it's that it does not agree with the intensity of the frontogenesis likely due to the weaker H7 jet streak

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