3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
+21
RJB8525
Dunnzoo
oldtimer
weatherwatchermom
Grselig
rb924119
CPcantmeasuresnow
Quietace
jmanley32
nancy-j-s
dad4twoboys
Radz
amugs
sroc4
gigs68
SNOW MAN
SoulSingMG
2004blackwrx
docstox12
snow247
Frank_Wx
25 posters
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
4 to 6" easy on colder surfaces and a slushy 2 to 3" on paved surfaces mainly after dark. ALL MELTS ON Saturday, BUT STILL A NICE TREAT!!!
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
Wow...GEM-LAM snow map is beautiful
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
6z GFS H7 VV's
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
We'll see lol The last few times I'm pretty sure both the SREFs and the GEM-LAM were showing snowy solutions only to back off in the next runs. I'm still not sold on higher accumulations with this one, and it would seem that we are seeing two very opposite things in the players on the field.
In any event, I'm very sorry for the loss of your family member :/
In any event, I'm very sorry for the loss of your family member :/
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
Trending very nicely and the SREFS - holy cow!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
-EPO/-NAO bridge is very nice. If it were not for those signals, the storm would scoot out to sea.
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
Frank,
Sorry for you loss.
Wow, it would be so ironic if my area gets one of our biggest snow of the season in Spring (6 plus) Not counting on it, but would be fun.
Sorry for you loss.
Wow, it would be so ironic if my area gets one of our biggest snow of the season in Spring (6 plus) Not counting on it, but would be fun.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
Too bad there is no phasing. Amazing what that Baja cut-off upper low can do to a storm to enhance it's intensity. That's the 2nd or 3rd time I have seen one this season while we get hit with a storm. Tropical air trying to override arctic air just brings with it incredible dynamics sometimes
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
rb924119 wrote:We'll see lol The last few times I'm pretty sure both the SREFs and the GEM-LAM were showing snowy solutions only to back off in the next runs. I'm still not sold on higher accumulations with this one, and it would seem that we are seeing two very opposite things in the players on the field.
In any event, I'm very sorry for the loss of your family member :/
This is a situation where:
1. We have dual upper level jet streaks
2. Another Baja cut-off upper low is helping to feed the Pac s/w energy additional moisture/tropical air from the Gulf
3. H7 VV's overtaking much of eastern PA, NJ, NYC, CT
4. Climo plays a role, for sure, but not for those cold @ 925, 850, and the surface
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
12z NAM so far looks further south with the heaviest precip, a little warmer as well
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
12z NAM has a start time closer to Noon while GFS was around mid-morning
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
Frank I am sorry to hear about your loss.
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
Frank_Wx wrote:rb924119 wrote:We'll see lol The last few times I'm pretty sure both the SREFs and the GEM-LAM were showing snowy solutions only to back off in the next runs. I'm still not sold on higher accumulations with this one, and it would seem that we are seeing two very opposite things in the players on the field.
In any event, I'm very sorry for the loss of your family member :/
This is a situation where:
1. We have dual upper level jet streaks
2. Another Baja cut-off upper low is helping to feed the Pac s/w energy additional moisture/tropical air from the Gulf
3. H7 VV's overtaking much of eastern PA, NJ, NYC, CT
4. Climo plays a role, for sure, but not for those cold @ 925, 850, and the surface
Here are my "arguments" against your claims (not really arguments, just a great discussion lol):
1. You're right, but the changes in speed relative to the jet cores are not that drastic, which will negate some of the forcing for ascent. The presence of an H3 ridge, albeit weak doesn't help our cause either.
2. If you look at the low and mid-level flow relative to the moisture feed, there isn't actually strong transport into our area. The flow is primarily from west to east; not southwest to northeast, which leaves us out of the brunt of the moisture fetch.
3. I would expect those velocities to actually begin to shift south and eastward in today's model runs, since that is where the best isentropic lift will be occurring concurrent with the other (relatively weak) synoptic-scale forcings from the jets/H5/isentropic lift.
4. The ground has become very warm, with several days in the 50s down there. With marginal temperatures, especially at the surface, it will take a while before the snow sticks, especially if it only falls lightly. You would need some pretty heavy snow for a sustained period in order to cool the ground enough to allow accumulations.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
Frank So sorry for your loss I pray for all
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
Frank, sorry for your loss...prayers for your family..
I still have snow on half my yard at home, and I was at 22* overnight and will be again tonight. It was so windy here yesterday we were still pretty cold. I honestly think I will be in the 5-6" range here, the ground is not warm yet here....
btw, my family is ready to kill me...they are SO done with the snow and all the shovelling they have had to do!
I still have snow on half my yard at home, and I was at 22* overnight and will be again tonight. It was so windy here yesterday we were still pretty cold. I honestly think I will be in the 5-6" range here, the ground is not warm yet here....
btw, my family is ready to kill me...they are SO done with the snow and all the shovelling they have had to do!
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
rb924119 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:rb924119 wrote:We'll see lol The last few times I'm pretty sure both the SREFs and the GEM-LAM were showing snowy solutions only to back off in the next runs. I'm still not sold on higher accumulations with this one, and it would seem that we are seeing two very opposite things in the players on the field.
In any event, I'm very sorry for the loss of your family member :/
This is a situation where:
1. We have dual upper level jet streaks
2. Another Baja cut-off upper low is helping to feed the Pac s/w energy additional moisture/tropical air from the Gulf
3. H7 VV's overtaking much of eastern PA, NJ, NYC, CT
4. Climo plays a role, for sure, but not for those cold @ 925, 850, and the surface
Here are my "arguments" against your claims (not really arguments, just a great discussion lol):
1. You're right, but the changes in speed relative to the jet cores are not that drastic, which will negate some of the forcing for ascent. The presence of an H3 ridge, albeit weak doesn't help our cause either.
2. If you look at the low and mid-level flow relative to the moisture feed, there isn't actually strong transport into our area. The flow is primarily from west to east; not southwest to northeast, which leaves us out of the brunt of the moisture fetch.
3. I would expect those velocities to actually begin to shift south and eastward in today's model runs, since that is where the best isentropic lift will be occurring concurrent with the other (relatively weak) synoptic-scale forcings from the jets/H5/isentropic lift.
4. The ground has become very warm, with several days in the 50s down there. With marginal temperatures, especially at the surface, it will take a while before the snow sticks, especially if it only falls lightly. You would need some pretty heavy snow for a sustained period in order to cool the ground enough to allow accumulations.
The difference between this system and the one back on March 5th is that the upper air energy evolved from the STJ on the latter storm, while on the former it is coming out of the Pacific Jet. There is not going to be an impressive precip shield with this system UNTIL it reaches our latitude and feels the effect of the NE wind. Yes, the orientation of the flow is more west to east than SW to NE so I imagine areas from NYC south benefit the most with the higher qpf amounts. In fact, some models are showing higher qpf amounts with this system than the March 5th storm so that says a lot about the frontogenesis.
Iv'e been saying stickage will be primarily over grass and colder non-paved surfaces, while roadways will take awhile to get cold enough. It's spring and the storm itself lacks dynamics.
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
GFS ain't playin'
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
I want to see tonights short range models agree and Ill buy in
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
Dang so 7-10 for right around NYC and south on SREF, 6-8 GFS this is a nice trend, lets keep it up. Glad to know CP, will keep my ruler handy. Looks like on both the 32 line stays well south of city entire time too, that's a good thing.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
H7 jet streak stronger on GFS for better lift
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
i hope it "sticks" quick and doesn't play games then we start guessing with now casting
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
CMC cold but further south whith much less QPF compared to GFS
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map
sroc4 wrote:CMC cold but further south whith much less QPF compared to GFS
It is not that it's further south - the surface low track is about the same as the GFS - it's that it does not agree with the intensity of the frontogenesis likely due to the weaker H7 jet streak
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