Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:43 pm

CMC cold but further south whith much less QPF compared to GFS

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:46 pm

sroc4 wrote:CMC cold but further south whith much less QPF compared to GFS

It is not that it's further south - the surface low track is about the same as the GFS - it's that it does not agree with the intensity of the frontogenesis likely due to the weaker H7 jet streak

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:49 pm

12z UKMET caved to GFS - precip is north from 00z run

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_036_0000

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:44 pm

The initial surge of precip between 06z-18z on the GFS is as a result of the northern jet streak.

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Gfs_uv250_eus_4

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Gfs_uv250_eus_4

Between 18z and 00z, the southern one takes over and those from NYC on south really benefit

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Gfs_uv250_eus_6

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Gfs_uv250_eus_6

H7 vort's early in day:

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Gfs_z700_vort_neus_6

Later in the day:

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Gfs_z700_vort_neus_7

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:59 pm

That even includes very southern Westchester, but only by a hair any slight change could leave us out or more in. Looking interesting, timing as said is very important here.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Mar 19, 2015 2:03 pm

Miss EURO holds serve. 4-6 inches NYC metro.

by **amugs** Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:47 pm

Upton

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 StormTotalSnowFcst

by **RJB8525** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:02 pm

Lee's going with 2-4 slushy inches

In NJ spots in central and interior w and south can see 4+

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:04 pm

amugs wrote:Upton

Thats 3!! Two in one day

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:11 pm

Wow, Upton now has 3-6" with locally higher in their WWA for NYC.

by **snow247** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:18 pm

I posted my final call snow map in the snow map/prediction thread.

by **Quietace** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:19 pm

If it doesn't snow hard enough it wont stick....so if you don't get into the best banding....colder surface accumulations only

by **Quietace** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:22 pm

Im personally inclined to give some credit to the NAMs solution at this point.....since the RGEM is very similar in its handling of the Precip shield.....

by **snow247** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:23 pm

Upton cut back on amounts for northern areas.

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:23 pm

18z NAM snow map:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015031918&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:24 pm

snow247 wrote:Upton cut back on amounts for northern areas.

There's a shocker...... :p

by **snow247** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:
snow247 wrote:Upton cut back on amounts for northern areas.

There's a shocker...... :p

Hope you're being sarcastic lol, happened every time this winter.

by **Quietace** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:
snow247 wrote:Upton cut back on amounts for northern areas.

There's a shocker...... :p

Makes sense given how recent SR models are showing best lift and precip rates further south...

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:29 pm

snow247 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
snow247 wrote:Upton cut back on amounts for northern areas.

There's a shocker...... :p

Hope you're being sarcastic lol, happened every time this winter.

That's my point ahaha Personally, not trying to be a downer, but I think it will happen again. I'm not enthused by this setup at all. There may be a narrow stripe of 4-5, maybeeeee isolated 6" amounts, but I am still only around a 35-40% confidence level on that. I still think the highest we see from this will be about 4" or so, most likely just north/northwest of PHL and west of NYC.

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:31 pm

Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
snow247 wrote:Upton cut back on amounts for northern areas.

There's a shocker...... :p
Makes sense given how recent SR models are showing best lift and precip rates further south...

Yep, and further south it's too warm for snow. That has been my point this whole time. The best forcing is not co-located with the cold air. They're disjointed (at least in my opinion).

by **Quietace** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
snow247 wrote:Upton cut back on amounts for northern areas.

There's a shocker...... :p
Makes sense given how recent SR models are showing best lift and precip rates further south...

Yep, and further south it's too warm for snow. That has been my point this whole time. The best forcing is not co-located with the cold air. They're disjointed (at least in my opinion).

Agree, even if best banding is south say near I-195, which it may end up, we still wont wet bulb or cool enough for this to be a impactful event with accumulations on roads, surface is way to warm...NAM has this, yet surface is still 33-34 during height of storm, and your fighting the sun angle...just not a winning situation for most...

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:35 pm

I locked the map thread, too many posts all over the place for this storm. If anyone has a map they want to add, pm me and I will open it up.

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:40 pm

Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
snow247 wrote:Upton cut back on amounts for northern areas.

There's a shocker...... :p
Makes sense given how recent SR models are showing best lift and precip rates further south...

Yep, and further south it's too warm for snow. That has been my point this whole time. The best forcing is not co-located with the cold air. They're disjointed (at least in my opinion).
Agree, even if best banding is south say near I-195, which it may end up, we still wont wet bulb or cool enough for this to be a impactful event with accumulations on roads, surface is way to warm...NAM has this, yet surface is still 33-34 during height of storm, and your fighting the sun angle...just not a winning situation for most...

I completely agree.

by **amugs** Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:34 pm

18Z RGEM just out and ticked a bit north - 10 miles? Anyway lets hope this trend continues with the next two runs.

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Post-6-0-66515300-1426800496

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Post-6-0-66515300-1426800496

Here is the 12z

3/20 Spring Snowstorm - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Post-6-0-72211000-1426800503

If this came late night into early morning we would not have to worry about mixing IMO - gravy storm in my book peeps

by **docstox12** Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:51 pm

Well, whatever I get 1,2,3 inches, it will be nice to see.Very well may be the last accumulating snow until next Nov-Dec.After April 1 it's usually a few flurries on a cold day.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:54 pm

docstox12 wrote:Well, whatever I get 1,2,3 inches, it will be nice to see.Very well may be the last accumulating snow until next Nov-Dec.After April 1 it's usually a few flurries on a cold day.

Ive never been enthused about this one for us and I'm less so as the day rolls on.

Expecting 2 inches, anything 4 or over in the HV and I'll be shocked.

by **billg315** Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:55 pm

Always have issues with snow sticking on paved surfaces during the daytime with late March/early April storms. The fact that we may be getting about 3-6", even if a good portion of that won't stick on roads/sidewalks, this late in the season, is impressive enough for me. Frankly I was getting tired of climbing over snow and ice piles in my parking lot anyway.

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