Re: 3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map

by **algae888** Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:50 pm

[quot e="Nj WeatherGuy"]

algae888 wrote:so the euro and the GFS basically nailed the storm as they had the 4 plus inch amounts into Connecticut whereas the nam, rgem and CMC had the heavier precipitation to the south. frank next winter we should have a model verification score with the operationals starting around day 7. I know scott started one for the h5 pattern earlier this winter. I think it could be a good tool helping us to forecast storms next year. it will help us to see which model handles different patterns the best. I think the biggest challenge with doing this is to be consistent as it will take a lot of time and effort. we will probably need a few people stay on top of it. what do you think?

Heaviest snow axis was essentially to the south where the EURO/GFS showed mixing and less amounts so Id say the RGEM/NAM in mid range did well.[/quote]
I disagree the euro and gfs had four to six inch amounts from Philadelphia up through Connecticut. Fairfield County had the heaviest snow totals in Uptons area. Nam rgem we're showing 2 inch amounts for them. Check National Weather Service storm totals. some places in Fairfield County received 8 inches of snow

by **algae888** Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:55 pm

Nj if you go to tropical tidbits and check from 12z Wednesday through 12z Thursday gfs consistently showed 6 inches of snow from Philly right up through Connecticut. I believe Euro showed the same. the GFS did show less snow for Southern New Jersey but they're not really in our area

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:02 pm

GFS nailed this storm. RGEM/GFS blend to be more specific.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:04 pm

This is not accurate at all, EURO showed the same with nothing in SNJ where they jackpotted, wayyyyyy off.

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 19 Screen11

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 19 Screen11

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:08 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is not accurate at all, EURO showed the same with nothing in SNJ where they jackpotted, wayyyyyy off.

This was the 00z GFS Thursday night. Storm started 10am Friday. It nailed it.

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 19 Gfs_asnow_neus_10

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 19 Gfs_asnow_neus_10

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:14 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is not accurate at all, EURO showed the same with nothing in SNJ where they jackpotted, wayyyyyy off.

This was the 00z GFS Thursday night. Storm started 10am Friday. It nailed it.

There are confirmed reports of much higher amnts south of where the GFS cuts it off. HRRR nailed it in SR as usual. Ratios were not 10:1 of course.

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 19 Dtyqh10

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 19 Dtyqh10

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:23 pm

Yes that's why I said rgem/gfs blend.

by **Dtone** Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:11 pm

Virtually all evidence of snow is gone, that was fast.

by Sponsored content