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2015 August Obs & Discussions

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Post by amugs Sat Aug 01, 2015 8:50 am

It is Aug 1 - the last month of meteorological summer. Lets talk about it.

Mugs

Here is how July went down temps wise

NYC: +2.3
EWR: +1.6
LGA: +1.8
JFK: +2.6
TTN: +0.8
PHL: +1.1

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sat Aug 01, 2015 8:54 am

From the USA site for 90* days to share

Updated
2015:


PHL:  18 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1; Jun: 7; Jul: 10
EWR: 17 (Apr 0 : ; May: 2; Jun 4; Jul: 11
TTN:  12   (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun: 4; Jul: 6
LGA: 9   (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun:3; Jul : 6
ACY: 9   (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 4
TEB: 17  (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun : 5; Jul: 8
NYC:  6  (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 5
JFK: 4   (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul:3
ISP:   3  (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 0 ; Jul: 3  
New Brunswick: 16 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 11

TEB - Teterboro is ridiculously above average for the area IMO temps wise due to the location of the station on the tarmac. May be the next CP for having them move this.

JFK and LAG - directly on the water like ACY (Atlantic City) keeps temps a degree or two less


Last edited by amugs on Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:06 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:06 pm

July turned out to be warmer than I expected it to be. I don't think August will be as warm from a temp departure standpoint. We'll see! Beautiful day today

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Post by docstox12 Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:31 pm

Last two days, Frank, magnificent!

Starting to notice the earlier sunsets and later sunrises now.

This month will fly by, before you know it Labor Day, School starts and football season begins!!!
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 02, 2015 10:04 am

@docstox12 wrote:Last two days, Frank, magnificent!

Starting to notice the earlier sunsets and later sunrises now.

This month will fly by, before you know it Labor Day, School starts and football season begins!!!

Doc I know and let's not rush it hahahaha!!!!

81* this morning and humidit at 62% Crystal clear blue skies - know it is the dog days of summer when the cicadas are chirping!

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Post by docstox12 Sun Aug 02, 2015 12:16 pm

Summer has been magnificent, a few hot days here and there.

Enjoy every minute, Mugsy!!!!



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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 02, 2015 12:17 pm

Much cooler week expected compared to last week. Some rain possible Tuesday morning but it won't be more then light showers as a front comes through. Steadier rain possible Thursday into Friday. More details on that tomorrow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 02, 2015 12:20 pm

Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with temps getting near 90 degrees.

2015 August Obs & Discussions Gfs_T2m_neus_6

Should be in the 80's the rest of the week with low temps dropping into the 60s

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:49 pm

Happy August! Man this summer has flown by! Anyways looks like a fiarly reobust storm system around 6-8th timeframe depending on what model u look at, looks to come down from NW and deepens off coast a bit befor heading out. Gives us a pretty good dumping, in inches if I am not mistkaen by models. 00z CMC had 5-10 inchs rain in the 10 day just to the south of the area, but it also had a TS along the coast in the next 24-48 hrs which we know is not going to happen. Its that time of year for phantom tropics!
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Post by algae888 Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:30 pm

starting Wednesday a significant cool down expected and looks to last awhile. look for temps no higher than low 80's and starting Friday temps could remain in the 70's or cooler if there is rain. cmc and gfs have highs in upper 60's Friday with rain.
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Post by HectorO Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:33 pm

Can't complain about the summer here. Even though there were some hot muggy 90 degree days, there were also quite a few 90 degree days with low humidity that felt great.
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Post by amugs Mon Aug 03, 2015 6:11 pm

HRRR for a round of t boomers tonight - things get more interesting whilst I am at the Jersey Shore Thursday to Saturday. Well see but it look sto be may like weather - rainy and temps in the low 70's and possibly high 60's. Last 90* day for a awhile being advertised.

2015 August Obs & Discussions Hrrr_2015080318_ref_15min_pennsylvania

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by 1190ftalt Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:37 pm

Thunder and lightning and rain in Stillwater nj, the loudest thunder seems to be towards blairstown nj, temp dropping !
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 04, 2015 7:49 am

Intense t-storms last night!! Lots of lightning and loud thunder. Watching a coastal storm for this Friday. The GFS has it offshore while the CMC has it scraping us. Yesterday the CMC had a direct hit showing a washout. We'll see how this develops today on the models.

2015 August Obs & Discussions Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15

It does not look like there is blocking and the flow out west looks quick. This is why I think the GFS is offshore and why I think it could be correct. We'll see...

2015 August Obs & Discussions Gem_z500a_namer_14

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 04, 2015 7:50 am

Mugs posted this in the long range thread. WPC seems to think the coastal will hit us. Trends overnight would suggest otherwise.

2015 August Obs & Discussions 95ep48iwbg_fill

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:05 am

This is what came through last night

2015 August Obs & Discussions LWAIAeq

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Post by amugs Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:43 am

Got .10" of wetness from this. Congrats to ya'll that got smoked.
Frank pattern has not really changed in a long time, no blocking or minimal and storm on the coast but with the west ti east flow it it a swing and a miss. This zonal flow has been dominate for quite sometime if I am correct - still jet lag brain!

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by ak926 Tue Aug 04, 2015 9:13 am

.06 from this mornings 3am Thundershower. Lots of lightening west - northwest

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Post by gigs68 Tue Aug 04, 2015 9:46 am

Unbelievable thunderstorm last night in Commack.  Never seen so much lightning in a storm  Flash every 2 seconds.  Winds lifted up my deck table with umbrella.


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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:18 am

No rain expected this weekend. The only areas I think could see some showers are from the Jersey Shore and points south, but even for them it is looking dry at this time. Temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 80's with low humidity. It is going to feel great!!

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Post by HectorO Wed Aug 05, 2015 1:23 pm

Temps change so quickly. I was going to head out to do some work tomorrow. I wanted to hold off on it because Monday even Tuesday morning I saw forecast say 78 and raining. Now its going to be 85 and sunny. Better make plans to work outside tomorrow again.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 05, 2015 3:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:No rain expected this weekend. The only areas I think could see some showers are from the Jersey Shore and points south, but even for them it is looking dry at this time. Temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 80's with low humidity. It is going to feel great!!

Great news Frank I have outdoor plans all weekend : )

BTW did Westchester see any bad parts of those t-storms the other morning, if we did I slept right through it lol. Hear quite bit damage farther east which is rare for storms to grow in intensity as they head east.
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Post by algae888 Wed Aug 05, 2015 4:50 pm

Talk about flip flop of the models. It now looks like we can have a very wet weekend if the 12Z euro is correct. If phases a piece of northern stream energy with the offshore low. it brings a light rain Friday Friday night and a steady soaking rain Saturday Saturday night for most of the area.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Aug 05, 2015 5:30 pm

So all other models agree and now the euro throws a curve ball.
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Post by dad4twoboys Wed Aug 05, 2015 5:59 pm

Holy Guacamole !!!!
August already !!

I was think of taking my boys down to Point Pleasant Friday and Saturday to do a little fishing.
Now the Euro acts up...

What to do ! What to do !?!?

Aside from the Norma K what head boat would you local guys suggest ??? (Skins ? Ryan ?)
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