Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

OTS!!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Hour 120 she is way off the NC coast out in the ATLANTIC - dam Ida go away - she pulled to Ida remnants - I don't get that!!

Hour 126 way off the VA coast - spurring another LP over NC

132 Off the Jersey Coast - spinning aahh bs.

rb924119 wrote:OTS!!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

So now no Joaquin or other LP, so that run no storm at all. Wow these models aint got a clue.

Max 65Kts. NE quad is windy

Still time for this to change so don't be sold on the OTS solution here. The Bahamas get pounded!!

SROC, JB tweet or post?

amugs wrote:Still time for this to change so don't be sold on the OTS solution here. The Bahamas get pounded!!

SROC, JB tweet or post?

Go to the lower 1/3 of page 9 on this thread to find it. Post

Guys. The Front from tonight and Wednesday is not going to progress that far offshore, so any tropical entities and storms off the East coast will push moisture up and over it into our area. I think we are looking at 5 to 6 days of cloudy humid conditions with an onshore flow and 4 to 8" of rain at a minimum even without a landfalling storm or nor'easter.

Where was the JB post from? Also I thought we didn't really listen to him much, but what he says kinda makes sense to me. I would not be surprised at all that the models aren't making any sense of this right now. Not to get off topic but note very little rain from this first batch on Euro run. NWS still has same amount since last night.

Looks like Euro does develop the trough into LP, waiting to see what it does to our area if anything, wxbell soooo slow.

I think Euro is messed up by hr 156 only has 2.6 inches rain in most of area, that doesn't seem right.

Just saw the EURO and it does not even have much rain for the area. It looks like the "Fujiwara Effect" could be preventing Joaquin from phasing the H5 trough. This effect is basically when two tropical cyclones are located next to each other. It's more detailed than that but that's a high level definition.

Basically, instead of Joaquin interacting with the H5 trough it decides to interact with Ida instead (I do not think Ida was named yet). So it misses the phases and we're just left with a deep 500 mb trough that spawns a coastal low pressure system.

This is not the end solution but it is certainly what models are trending to.

jmanley32 wrote:Where was the JB post from?  Also I thought we didn't really listen to him much, but what he says kinda makes sense to me.  I would not be surprised at all that the models aren't making any sense of this right now.  Not to get off topic but note very little rain from this first batch on Euro run.  NWS still has same amount since last night.

From the Bell posted a little after noon. Who's we?  I read his posts all the time.  I listen to many different Mets.  Ive learned to read what they have to say and form my own opinion on the matter.  The man has a brilliant mind.  Like us all he has his bias's but the man is good at what he does and quietly recognizes that he wrong, and boisterously lets you know when he is right.  I for one appreciate his personality...most of the time.  With that he makes an interesting argument with that post and will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Just read it and that was my question in one of PBP posts - how the heck can remnants pull a Hcane towards it? Thanks Scott he makes perfect sense - you watch us freak out come Thursday that this biag comes down on us - that HP is the controller of this fate. Interesting post and thanks for sharing. I have to say I am perplexed by the solution on this from the Euro. That HP to the North is so strong how does it allow this to escape. I guess I need to learn more meteorlogical

I think Ray mentioned the 12z GEFS had a lot of hits. He's right.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

Frank_Wx wrote:Just saw the EURO and it does not even have much rain for the area. It looks like the "Fujiwara Effect" could be preventing Joaquin from phasing the H5 trough. This effect is basically when two tropical cyclones are located next to each other. It's more detailed than that but that's a high level definition.

Basically, instead of Joaquin interacting with the H5 trough it decides to interact with Ida instead (I do not think Ida was named yet). So it misses the phases and we're just left with a deep 500 mb trough that spawns a coastal low pressure system.

This is not the end solution but it is certainly what models are trending to.

Bah, what a waste of time watching if that's the case. I know not end solution but your right models kinda honing in on this but then again how many times have we been fooled by storms (mostly winter) 5 days out.

Wow, don't I look like giant dumbass lol oh well, I got fooled. At least I got April Fool's out of my way lmao

Anyway, Sroc, to answer your question as to how I feel about JB's thoughts:

I'd agree with his opinion that it would only make sense that the circulations combine and drift toward the lowest pressure, as this is what I stated somewhere in the tangle of posting like a mad-man. Whether or not that is a bias of the model, I can't say.

The best way that I can think of to describe the reasoning, is this: Think of three bouncy-balls sitting on a (ideally nearly frictionless) bed. Put a glass on the corner, and all the balls will drift toward the depression created by the glass (dynamically forced low with more rapid pressure falls). That would be similar to Joaquin remaining the dominant system, i.e. the trough is later to phase, doesn't phase, or the coastal doesn't develop rapidly enough. Now, imagine a bowling ball was placed on the opposite corner while leaving the glass of water in place. All the balls will accelerate away from the glass (less-significant pressure falls) toward the bowling ball (deep pressure created by intense upper-level dynamics off the coast). Simplistically, the situations are similar. This also goes for vorticity, and why it is nearly impossible to have a binary system; one is always going to be stronger than the other, and therefore force a consolidation. I hope that makes sense lol

Frank_Wx wrote:I think Ray mentioned the 12z GEFS had a lot of hits. He's right.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

Here are all 21 members:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F126.html

Obviously there are timing, intensity and positioning discrepancies, but...

This has got my attention out of an overall dismal summer and severe season, we'll see what happens... We do need some rain..

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This has got my attention out of an overall dismal summer and severe season, we'll see what happens... We do need some rain..

TOM!!!!! Right on cue, right when I was asking for you!

Frank_Wx wrote:I think Ray mentioned the 12z GEFS had a lot of hits. He's right.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

Yikes, thats starting to channel the S word when I see it.

Math23x7 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This has got my attention out of an overall dismal summer and severe season, we'll see what happens... We do need some rain..

TOM!!!!! Right on cue, right when I was asking for you!

Yeah, somebody texted a page to me about Joachine (however you spell it) and I was like "where th did this come from?" things were quiet last I checked a few days ago.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Where was the JB post from?  Also I thought we didn't really listen to him much, but what he says kinda makes sense to me.  I would not be surprised at all that the models aren't making any sense of this right now.  Not to get off topic but note very little rain from this first batch on Euro run.  NWS still has same amount since last night.

From the Bell posted a little after noon.  Who's we?  I read his posts all the time.  I listen to many different Mets.  Ive learned to read what they have to say and form my own opinion on the matter.  The man has a brilliant mind.  Like us all he has his bias's but the man is good at what he does and quietly recognizes that he wrong, and boisterously lets you know when he is right.  I for one appreciate his personality...most of the time.  With that he makes an interesting argument with that post and will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Yes he is brilliant I just wasn't sure how often we trusted his gut. Jokes have been made. I like him personally and his thoughts.

amugs wrote:Just read it and that was my question in one of PBP posts - how the heck can remnants pull a Hcane towards it? Thanks Scott he makes perfect sense - you watch us freak out come Thursday that this biag comes down on us - that HP is the controller of this fate. Interesting post and thanks for sharing. I have to say I am perplexed by the solution on this from the Euro. That HP to the North is so strong how does it allow this to escape. I guess I need to learn more meteorlogical

No I don't buy it, it makes no sense, yes x-ida is progged to possibly regain but not to the extent of the headliner. It just doesn't make sense at all and after seeing the ensembles with mostly EC hits or close I am thinking its still a outlier. Euro used to be our best friend and IF it does verify we will have respect if it doesn't I will question its reliability at least this far out.

I have a distinct feeling that JB is going to nail this - the big players always win out in these synoptic situations. Heck she is intensifying as we speak, wind shear dying down with a jacuzzi of water to pull her strength from. The track that is anyone's guess ...

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I think Ray mentioned the 12z GEFS had a lot of hits. He's right.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

Here are all 21 members:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F126.html

Obviously there are timing, intensity and positioning discrepancies, but...

rb you do not look like a idiot at all, we are still far from a solution and your insight has been great and well explained. I reiterate I do not buy the Euro. HWRF, CMC and GFDL may very well be on their game despite Franks idea that they can't handle this well. JB agrees in a tweet about that too. Yes mugs come Thurs I have a sneaking suspicion we all going be caught off guard. I am still going to prepare once IF models start to go back west. For now just gonna sit and watch things do what they are going to do.

My problem is we still have no definitive answer to the track and by the time we do it's to late

amugs wrote:





I have a distinct feeling that JB is going to nail this - the big players always win out in these synoptic situations. Heck she is intensifying as we speak, wind shear dying down with a jacuzzi of water to pull her strength from. The track that is anyone's guess ...

Wow I have not looked at satellite recently, he is impressive and very symmetrical. This going to deepen to cat 1 at least maybe higher. We will see, nail biter at this point, models are a pain.