Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

The other models are trending towards an even earlier capture. Can the Euro have the right solution? It's possible but pretty unlikely at this point.

EURO went OTS

I think a southern track, with landfall in the Carolinas is the most likely scenario IMHO. With as strong as this system is becoming, the amount of heat it is releasing into the atmosphere is immense. As this energy fans out at the upper levels, some of it will eventually get drawn northward as it starts to encounter the southerly flow ahead of the trough. This will likely help to amplify the ridge developing in the Atlantic even more than the deepening trough, thus creating a stronger block. As the trough closes off, it will work in cooperation with the block to direct it westward into the coast. Just my thoughts based on what I'm seeing. I think the models may be trying to pick up on this, minus the Euro, which is why we are seeing the southern tracks.

There is also another possibility, although I feel it is less likely; that the Euro is actually right and takes it out sea. If the system can release enough heat, it may work to offset the eastward propagation of the deepening trough. This would then allow the two to remain separate entities.

syosnow94 wrote:I mean this is nuts.  I'm not well versed on all the scientific mumbo jumbo, but for models to be 180 degrees opposite on their forecast solutions and then to not even be able to have the real time data in them is ridiculous.  What's the point of even following them?

Youre starting to catch on

Crazy isnt it? Here at work, they are begging to give me an exact track, yet the 12Z EURO prevents me from doing so. They think that it's as easy as just going out on a limb and making a prediction several days out. Unfortunately, it does not work like that.

Ok so I saw Frank say about a NC landfall I know we will still get rain up here but wind and storm surge would be minimal correct which I'm hoping for

amugs wrote:

Abba701 wrote:If this would make landfall in the same area as sandy or north would it cause a huge surge again?

Basically yes - the topography of the Jersey Shoreline and NYC, and LI shores will propagate (add) to the intensity of the surge. Could be a low end 2' or a 4' moderate surge, always remember this is in height and then add the waves on top of that that could be from 8' swells to 15' + depending on some variables.

Sandy brought a 15 foot surge to us off the Raritan Bay....hx-we have flood gates that are designed to handle up to 14 feet of water...the engineers never really knew if they could do the job...they did thank goodness and we had a 15 foot surge the gate operators told us...so hopefully nothing like that again! everything to the left of us destroyed(that Iconic House that was split in half that was on the magazine covers is a 10 minute walk from my house and) and everything to the right was destroyed.

Sheesh another euro run ots, I don't even have a clue what to say.  rb it does appear that way for Carolinas but I think its still equally possible it goes further north.  OTS I don't understand those dynamics enough to say my guess on that, if I went with consensus what little there is id say against it. Lets see what NHC does with cone at 5pm.

Euro also bring less than a inch rain for many max 2-3 south, this is a mess.

Nice model agreement, not thinking a NJ landfall ATM which is a good thing but plenty of time for things to change, ots also possible but less likely imo.

All guidance this afternoon has shifted the storm track into SC/NC. The block is overwhelming the storm and the capture is taking place further south as a result. Further, it does not help that Joaquin has been traveling mostly S-SW today - further proof that the models may not be completely wrong with this. We'll see how 00z's look tonight and see if there's a start of a new trend, or if they stay consistent.

SREFS also south

Wow way south, I am holding off on telling anyone anything more as it seems we may be in the clear? That far south and I wouldn't even expect much rain let alone wind. I dunno something tells me it will be more north where it was last night Delaware or north but a lot is against that today, but its one 12z run.

JMA says i'll flood you for days.

aiannone wrote:JMA says i'll flood you for days.

Flood who? From what I have seen rain has backed off big time, I wanted at least some kinda storm didn't have be crazy, looking less likely then again we are going by only a day or so of model runs with a hit so far south. Not even a day. Like Alex said we are far from the truth, even if it is what it shows its still 5 days away unless he speeds up. Eye is poking through, still an amazing system to watch, way exceeded intensity forecasts from when was just invest.

The EURO Ens offer no help. Some OTS, some re-loop back to Mid-Atlantic, some south into carolina's.

We will have to give this another full day to get a better idea.

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:JMA says i'll flood you for days.

Flood who?  From what I have seen rain has backed off big time, I wanted at least some kinda storm didn't have be crazy, looking less likely then again we are going by only a day or so of model runs with a hit so far south.  Not even a day.  Like Alex said we are far from the truth, even if it is what it shows its still 5 days away unless he speeds up.  Eye is poking through, still an amazing system to watch, way exceeded intensity forecasts from when was just invest.

The SE coast will flood for days. sits there for several days. not us

This hurricane is a pain in the arsss. No real track yet and no one can prepare

Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO Ens offer no help. Some OTS, some re-loop back to Mid-Atlantic, some south into carolina's.

We will have to give this another full day to get a better idea.

I just reviewed all 51 stamps and its a mess as you said, timing all over place, track all over, intensity for most part only think that is somewhat consistent. Something has to crack at some pt. Either Euro is king like with Sandy or a great failure to the other models. I guess I will be up again tonight lol, 5pm full update within 40 min or less, lets see if NHC changes cone intensity etc.

aiannone wrote:

I like him : )

Well the new hurricane info will be out soon, screw the models the real guys are in the sky looking at it

Retweet by dimartino, wether the other person credible or not I dunno.


Steven DiMartino Retweeted


frank dana ‏@fdana728 · 38m38 minutes ago
@nynjpaweather I have a cousin at the NHC. He said the exact same thing. He thinks the Delmarva to S Jersey

I don't think so.no one knows

I want everyone to let this sink in.....

Family members keep asking me for an update. This is what Iv'e been sending all day on repeat. Figured I'll share here too.

Hello (insert name),

Yesterday's model runs were painting a much more ominous picture than today's runs. Today, the models believe the Hurricane will either stay out to sea or make landfall over North Carolina. The majority have Joaquin making landfall in North Carolina. Given the size of this storm, this will have an impact on Washington DC.

Here are the scenarios:

Scenario A

Joaquin makes landfall on Virginia Beach or the Delmarva. This is what the models were showing yesterday. Obviously the worst case scenario that would bring Sandy-like impacts from Washington DC all the way up to New York City. As of today, there is NO support from the models of this happening. If Joaquin weakens over the Atlantic he has a better chance of taking this path. If he remains strong, he will track elsewhere (I would explain why but I do not think that matters to you haha).

Scenario B

Joaquin makes landfall on North Carolina. Today, this seems to be the consensus with the weather models. However, the National Hurricane Center still has the official track heading to VA Beach / DE. Even if the Hurricane took this track, Washington DC would still get flooding rains and high winds due to the sheer size of this storm. This track will only limit impact for the Philadelphia and NYC Metro regions, but DC would still get hit pretty hard with probably 5-10 inches of rain and gusts between 40-60 mph. Since the ground is already saturated and the trees still have all their leaves on them, sustained winds of that force over a 10 hour period would lead to widespread power outages.

Scenario C

Joaquin slows down or takes a longer path to get here and it becomes more of a mid-week system rather than a Sunday event.

Scenario D

Joaquin heads out to sea bringing little to no impact to the area (besides beach erosion and high waves along the immediate coast).

There is more to the forecast but I do not want to bore you with the details. If I had to choose a scenario, I would pick B or C. I cannot say anything definitively at this time since there is so much uncertainty and inconsistency with the models. Tomorrow, I can give you another update and tell you which "Scenario" the models are leaning toward.

I hope this helps.