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Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:32 am

Heh, if we could believe 06z gfs out 360 hrs I would say we not only getting her to develop in and move the same direction but just as strong Sandy try part 3. No idea what the steering currents would be then though and it probably just goes poof anyways, still kinda coincidence that it comes up around 21st which is around same exact time as 2012.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:35 am

Actualy thats 3 runs ina row and moving up in time that the GFS is showing development south of Cuba and noving north like Sandy did. hmmmm, something to watch? Not for another 350 hrs lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 05, 2015 2:42 pm

4 runs in a row that develops this LP from the area south of Cuba and movies it up to this position (each run has come down in hours and made progress north which is interesting), yes its way the heck out there but lets see how long the gfs holds onto this and Euro at 240 show a lp forming down in that area too.


Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 New_gf10
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:23 pm

Joaquin is still wreaking havoc on the forecasters, just as it passed Bermuda it was forecast to impact and landfall the British Isles as a strong tropical storm, just a day later (today) its now expected to curve way down to Portugal... Models still apparently not handling this well, one of the worst forecasted storms in quite a while, they got it wrong by 2 countries, didnt hit America and probably wont hit the UK (if you dont count Bermuda).
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:09 am

The system I was mention on gfs is shown at 240 developing where sandy developed. Haven't seen consistency like that in a long time. Cmc doesn't have but I said days ago I don't pay much attention to it.
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 07, 2015 5:27 pm

Oh and some inland snow flakes?? 12z GFS says so

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f228

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Post by Quietace Wed Oct 07, 2015 5:43 pm

@amugs wrote:Oh and some inland snow flakes?? 12z GFS says so

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f228
Hi

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Post by Quietace Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:41 pm


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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:13 am

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 650x366_10021830_screen-shot-2015-10-02-at-2.30.36-pm


Someone posted this to JB and this was his response to this map.  Suspect pretty much my thoughts exactly...


I got a letter from a subscriber about a rival company putting out a winter highlight map. That is not a forecast for one. For two some of the things said there are purposely ambiguous. Terms like "occasional mild days" in the mid Mississippi valley. Definition of occasionally:

at infrequent or irregular intervals; now and then.

so does that mean the rest of the time its cold?

Lake effect snows.. around.. wait for it.. the great lakes.. Now if it was over Kansas, that would have been bold.

Flood risk here and there..

But no temps. No snowfall..

So how can you tell

By the way there were occasional mild days in New England last winter. One was Christmas for instance. Did that describe the winter.

We have a forecast out. We forecast the weather, not against other weather people. But for years I have been ranting that guidance is not a forecast. And slapping terms on does not quantify the metric to determine if you were accurate or not.
Let the buyer beware

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by HectorO Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:32 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 650x366_10021830_screen-shot-2015-10-02-at-2.30.36-pm


Someone posted this to JB and this was his response to this map.  Suspect pretty much my thoughts exactly...


I got a letter from a subscriber about a rival company putting out a winter highlight map. That is not a forecast for one. For two some of the things said there are purposely ambiguous. Terms like "occasional mild days" in the mid Mississippi valley. Definition of occasionally:

at infrequent or irregular intervals; now and then.

so does that mean the rest of the time its cold?

Lake effect snows.. around.. wait for it.. the great lakes.. Now if it was over Kansas, that would have been bold.

Flood risk here and there..

But no temps. No snowfall..

So how can you tell

By the way there were occasional mild days in New England last winter. One was Christmas for instance. Did that describe the winter.

We have a forecast out. We forecast the weather, not against other weather people. But for years I have been ranting that guidance is not a forecast. And slapping terms on does not quantify the metric to determine if you were accurate or not.
Let the buyer beware

I remember them saying this past winter wouldn't be as frigid as the one before that and look how thst turned out. February was brutal. But he's right, it's not forecasting. Someone just slapped some words and used Paint shop on a map.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:43 pm

Patiently waiting for Frank's blog
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:51 pm

@Quietace wrote:

Seen that w, why didn't I think of a joke like that great!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:01 pm

Wow, 24 inches of freaking rain unbelievable. And to think this cound been us.

http://www.weather.gov/images/chs/events/HistoricFlooding_Oct2015/Test/StormTotalRainfall.png
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Oct 08, 2015 11:46 pm

Thats a terrible forecast map, not as brutal is open to interpretation and not descriptive as to what theyre predicting, a few inches less than last year and slightly less cold or much less so? Less lake effect snow? Again same problem, snow and wet? Really..? Flood risk, implying they think itll be wet but no temps, florida storm risk? When is there not? Dry and mild is the only one that im ok with. Occasional mild days is meaninless because before a cutter theres a few mild days but it could be the coldest winter on record. Is this a real map? What idiot slapped this 4th grader map together?
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:06 am

NICE - DOC, CP, RB - look at hat blue dot in the LHV

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_52

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:11 am

Mugs posting 384 hour GFS images means winter is close!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 09, 2015 3:29 pm

Awww come on that image was funny and ya took it down : (, you guys got no sense of humor. Anyways moving on looks like GFS and Euro are now on board for the tropical entity in Caribbean at 240 hrs. GFS after that showed a huge storm this morning wow, but all have been ots, Frank what would pattern suggest, as in October climalology favors EC hits sometimes.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Oct 09, 2015 3:37 pm

@amugs wrote:NICE - DOC, CP, RB - look at hat blue dot in the LHV

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_52

Mugs, you're the man.

I just posted this morning in one of the other threads that I was already getting nervous because I saw nothing in the long range.

You made my day buddy.
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:27 pm

CP - Your welcome ol' friend and OTII buddy - even though you over threw me and stole my babe you bleepin.......................

Now chekc this out - who can gues what the huge red dip on this chart represents??

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 CQz8x20XAAAxO-k.thumb.png.dab2031b69a61cbd422f7a02c733fd86


Buehler, Buehler, Frye, Frye ..............................Phoenix!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:29 pm

@amugs wrote:CP - Your welcome ol' friend and OTII buddy - even though you over threw me and stole my babe you bleepin.......................

Now chekc this out - who can gues what the huge red dip on this chart represents??

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 CQz8x20XAAAxO-k.thumb.png.dab2031b69a61cbd422f7a02c733fd86


Buehler, Buehler, Frye, Frye ..............................Phoenix!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GFS got owned

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:31 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:CP - Your welcome ol' friend and OTII buddy - even though you over threw me and stole my babe you bleepin.......................

Now chekc this out - who can gues what the huge red dip on this chart represents??

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 CQz8x20XAAAxO-k.thumb.png.dab2031b69a61cbd422f7a02c733fd86


Buehler, Buehler, Frye, Frye ..............................Phoenix!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GFS got owned

You young whipper snappers - in my day it was called a good ol' fashion arse whoopin'!!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:42 pm

Okay which one of you remember this storm - really affected NE more than us:

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 CQ2Fiu7UAAA0dP4

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:48 pm

GEFS Upgarde

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin15-43gefs.htm

Technical Implementation Notice 15-43
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
1010 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2015

To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From: Timothy McClung
Chief Operating Officer
NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration

Subject: Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Changes
Effective October 13, 2015

On or about Tuesday, October 13, 2015, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for
Environmental Protection's (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System
(GEFS) will be updated.

The upgrade in the GEFS production suite includes:

1. Running the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model with
Semi-Lagrangian dynamic scheme and improved physics scheme, GSM
v12.1.0, to replace the currently used GFS v9.1.0.

2. Increasing the horizontal resolution from T254 (about 55km) to
TL574 (about 33km) for the first 192 hours (8 days) of model
integration, and from T190 (about 70km)to TL382 (about 55km)
between 192 hours and 384 hours of model integration.

3. Increasing vertical resolution from 42 levels to 64 levels for
0-384 hours (0-16 days) forecasts.

4. Modifying the ensemble initialization method by replacing the
Bred Vector with Ensemble Transform and Rescaling (BV-ETR) scheme
with Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) scheme. The 6-hour forecasts
of the 80 EnKF ensemble members of the Hybrid Data Assimilation
system, from the previous cycle, are used to initialize the
ensemble perturbations.

5. Improving the Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation (STTP)
scheme by (1) turning off perturbations in the surface pressure,
(2) increasing the perturbation amplitude of other model state
variables around the time of model truncation (192 hours), and
(3) adjusting its parameters to match the Semi-Lagrangian scheme,
the increased model resolution and improved model physics.

There will be several changes in the 1 degree GEFS product data
files (affects files with names pgrb2a/pgrb2b). The GEFS
products disseminated over NOAAPORT will not change in format or
content. The GEFS products disseminated via the NWS and NCEP
servers will have some changes in content. A significant
increase in the GRIB product data volumes is expected due to
these changes. These products are available at the following
locations:

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:14 pm

mugs got u beat with the 18z omg! But alas its 384hrs lol

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Gfs_3810
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:16 pm

Are we seeing the sins of a disaster end of october snowstorm? That is my sister in laws wedding day outside in hopewell junction!  If we are I sure hope it doesnt mess up the rest of winter. That phase of the tropical system and a system coming down is near perfect imagine......
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