Re: All Tropics Talk Thread 1.0

[Quietace]

Some big shifts in the EURO and GEM last night. GFS finally onto a storm developing south of the approaching cold front but shoots it OTS. Euro and GEM are keen on having the system interact with the cold front approaching.

[Frank_Wx]

Yup, both euro and Canadian show a hit

[Frank_Wx]

12z GFS has a tropical storm or maybe weak hurricane effecting Florida panhandle, then it gets captured by the trough and rides the eastern seaboard bringing 2-4 inch rains to our area.

This would actually be beneficial, since we need the rain.

[Frank_Wx]

18z GFS is even more robust with this system coming up the coast. Stay tuned, could be looking at a 3-5 inch rainfall early next week.

[Quietace]

The GFS has some winds on the east side of the system too and keeps it around 1005 to 1007mb...


But just mentioning the Euro doesn't even develop the system and it is absorbed by the frontal boundary much further west then the GFS and has almost no impact on the area what so ever.
This could come down to the strength of the Low Pressure/ tropical system (speed at which it travel to the N) and the speed of the trough itself interacting with the GOM system.

[Frank_Wx]

Pretty much Ryan. Euro basically feels this system will dissipate over unfavorable conditions and we have nothing to worry about. Euro has also been horrifically bad as of late, though.

[amugs]

Oh boy here we go! A Prelude of things to come! Thanks for the info guys.  I was reading on another site that the storm was showing a weird set up with the center of circulation being to the ne of where a normal eye/center would set up and that it was taken on some uncharacteristic characteristics if that makes sense.  We shall see but if i am on the Fla panhandle/gulf coast towards miss. I am keeping an eye out.

[Quietace]

Well for some time the LLC was disjointed and not under the heaviest convection were the MLC was. It looks like it may have moved under the heaviest convection as the system has been looking much more well defined and looks to be strengthening now on imagery. Too bad both Ascat satellites missed it on the latest passes. That would have told us much more about the LLC.

[Dunnzoo]

Aren't the 6z and 18z runs run with older data and less reliable? Maybe overamping the precip? Guess I'll be up for the 0z runs...don't need all this rain at once, no matter how dry we have been..

[Frank_Wx]

Yea could cause for some bad runoff.

[Quietace]

0z GFS has a 1002mb at landfall in Florida Panhandle/Mississippi

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