Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[skinsfan1177]

At the end of the EURO run on Monday Jan 18th every state has an area below freezing as the 32* line is in the Gulf just off the coast - wow! CONUS in the freezer!!

In your opinion mugs does it look like their are many storms after the 18th as well

[nutleyblizzard]

THERMALS ALERT - FEB 2015 INCOMING HERE!!





See what I was saying and yuo can sure as heck bet we will have squall lines moving through with so many lobes of energy swinging off teh PAC - on , two or three of them will produce.

Wow! Models are all over the place. Not only can they figure out any potential storm tracks, the temp profiles have changed too. Just yesterday there was concern for temperatures with next weekends storm. That map looks cold enough to me.

[skinsfan1177]

THERMALS ALERT - FEB 2015 INCOMING HERE!!





See what I was saying and yuo can sure as heck bet we will have squall lines moving through with so many lobes of energy swinging off teh PAC - on , two or three of them will produce.

Wow! Models are all over the place. Not only can they figure out any potential storm tracks, the temp profiles have changed too. Just yesterday there was concern for temperatures with next weekends storm. That map looks cold enough to me.

Looks plenty cold!!

[amugs]

Models/ENS members showing the storm still - particulars come later.

AS I said before you will your head saying why is it a miss or so close, slop storm, Miller A, etc............... just know that all teh players are there and that we will not know till within 3 -4 days of this in this set up. JB honking!!! NEG over SE and Heights along coast = Northern track, coastal track. Models have so much happening with a massive (yes it is and do not even doubt this for one second) pattern change let alone a phased storm. Give them time.

"Build it and he (it) will come............."

[amugs]

Isotherm post on the PV Stratosphere condition

We're definitely not behind the 1958 progression, and I would argue at least 5 days ahead of its progression. Still like the Jan 20th-30th period for a 10hpa split attempt. The progged evolution with upper stratospheric warming via the Aleutian and Eurasian highs is precisely the precursor one would seek.

If it doesn't occur, of course, that doesn't mean winter's over. However, if it occurs, we would likely maintain a protracted period of severe blocking through February. I would expect the AO and NAO to average negative in February regardless, but a SSW would increase the magnitude.



Today's 12z Euro run depicts the extremely elongated 10hpa vortex via the dual pressing by the 18th.

[skinsfan1177]

Just read a outlook from epawa very interesting talking about quiet a few storms one before the 16th-18th timeframe and one after that timefram those are with low/moderate confidence. Point is their is lots of potential

[skinsfan1177]

Isotherm post on the PV Stratosphere condition

We're definitely not behind the 1958 progression, and I would argue at least 5 days ahead of its progression. Still like the Jan 20th-30th period for a 10hpa split attempt. The progged evolution with upper stratospheric warming via the Aleutian and Eurasian highs is precisely the precursor one would seek.

If it doesn't occur, of course, that doesn't mean winter's over. However, if it occurs, we would likely maintain a protracted period of severe blocking through February. I would expect the AO and NAO to average negative in February regardless, but a SSW would increase the magnitude.



Today's 12z Euro run depicts the extremely elongated 10hpa vortex via the dual pressing by the 18th.

Mugs where do you get these reads from isotherm. His knowledge if great!

[jmanley32]

18z GFS has bombing coastal after coastal, but all offshore, the potential is there just too far out at this time. I know one will produce big time I just get that feeling.

[amugs]

18z GFS has bombing coastal after coastal, but all offshore, the potential is there just too far out at this time.  I know one will produce big time I just get that feeling.

With a N over the SE and heights high over the NA one or two of these beasts is going to turn north and it maybe a last minute job - like BD 2010 with the block modelled. Models will have a hard time and dop handling all of these dynamics in teh atmosphere.
GEFS look good - pretty deep for the clipper




EPS does too


Clipper

[snow247]

00z GFS rolling and the big dog storm is coming into range.

Edit: GFS not good. But still many days away, at least the signal is there.

[Frank_Wx]

There is no phase. It's a weak southern stream driven system. There is no western ridge to dig the northern energy. The northern energy also closes off, which makes it less susceptible to digging into the eastern CONUS.

[weatherwatchermom]

There is no phase. It's a weak southern stream driven system. There is no western ridge to dig the northern energy. The northern energy also closes off, which makes it less susceptible to digging into the eastern CONUS.

Hey are you talking about Wed? Just curious

[snow247]

There is no phase. It's a weak southern stream driven system. There is no western ridge to dig the northern energy. The northern energy also closes off, which makes it less susceptible to digging into the eastern CONUS.

Hey are you talking about Wed? Just curious

No, he's talking about the threat for around the 17th.

The Wednesday snow threat discussion is in it's own thread https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t623-01-13-clipper-system

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS OP is a mess. There is so many short waves entering the country it doesn't know which one to focus on. The block is west-based and impressive. We need to see better consolidation. CMC and EURO show look more organized than this

[Frank_Wx]

00z CMC tonight shows the beast. Rain to snow verbatim. This shouldn't even be looked at. Just the signal at this juncture is all that's important. This storm is still 9 days out. Incredible!! We use to not even pay so much attention to storm 10 days out. Goes to show how boring weather has been.

[Snow88]

Wow, very active GFS run. Storm after Storm after Storm even though none of them really hit the area. The models are going to be all over the place until it gets near to the storm. The pattern is really explosive and has big potential.

[Frank_Wx]

Wow, very active GFS run. Storm after Storm after Storm even though none of them really hit the area. The models are going to be all over the place until it gets near to the storm. The pattern is really explosive and has big potential.

Agree.

[weatherwatchermom]

There is no phase. It's a weak southern stream driven system. There is no western ridge to dig the northern energy. The northern energy also closes off, which makes it less susceptible to digging into the eastern CONUS.

Hey are you talking about Wed? Just curious

No, he's talking about the threat for around the 17th.

The Wednesday snow threat discussion is in it's own thread https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t623-01-13-clipper-system

ThAnk you

[snow247]

Euro very early, low in the gulf at 132, starts turning the corner at hour 150 and just misses us at hour 168. Low goes off the SE coast.

Very close to a huge storm for us. Potential is closer than we think.

[justin92]

The good news is that both models CMC and Euro show something for next weekend the signal is there we just need the models to iron out mid-week and once that gets ironed out then we are ready to go im excited for models this wkend and early next week i have a feeling something could happen

[Snow88]

Wow Euro is monster just east of the BM at 162

[snow247]

6z GFS is an all out inland snowstorm.

[sroc4]

Wow is all I have to say with the overnight 00z suites.  If there was ever a definition of a powder keg of potential this is it.  Of course it doesn't mean it will be set off but man O man this could be crazy if it all comes together.  There is sooo much energy swirling around not a single operational model has even a clue right now on the where, the what, or the how its all going to interact.  

The north American continent is like a caldron of vorticity with the hand of mother nature simply stirring the pot.  With each model run she stops to taste her brew only to say..."nope not enough this and not enough that.  Lets add a dash more this and a pinch more of that." Then back to stirring the pot she goes until the next model run output.  

Just to give you some idea of what I mean lets compare yesterday's 12z 500mb maps to last nights 00z 500mb maps for each individual global model with all maps valid for 00z Jan 18th.  (GFS I compared last nights 00z to this am's 06z.  The rest are 12z and 00z).  Take particular notice just how drastically different each models individual runs are from 12z to 00z.  The placement and strengths of the different areas of vorticity, the ridging out west, etc are night and day different from one run to the next, AND from one model to the next.  We are going to be beating a dead horse when we say this because I know its been said already but we still have ZERO consensus on this threat, and will not know if this is truly the real deal until under 5-7days out AT BEST IMO.  The ensembles are still spread out although are very encouraging.  

GFS:

00z:
" />
06z:
" />

CMC:

12z:
" />
00z:
" />

EURO:

12z:
" />
00z:
" />

[skinsfan1177]

6z GFS is an all out inland snowstorm.

Way to early to know where it will snow at this point

[Quietace]

Wow is all I have to say with the overnight 00z suites.  If there was ever a definition of a powder keg of potential this is it.  Of course it doesn't mean it will be set off but man O man this could be crazy if it all comes together.  There is sooo much energy swirling around not a single operational model has even a clue right now on the where, the what, or the how its all going to interact.  

The north American continent is like a caldron of vorticity with the hand of mother nature simply stirring the pot.  With each model run she stops to taste her brew only to say..."nope not enough this and not enough that.  Lets add a dash more this and a pinch more of that." Then back to stirring the pot she goes until the next model run output.  

Just to give you some idea of what I mean lets compare yesterday's 12z 500mb maps to last nights 00z 500mb maps for each individual global model with all maps valid for 00z Jan 18th.  (GFS I compared last nights 00z to this am's 06z.  The rest are 12z and 00z).  Take particular notice just how drastically different each models individual runs are from 12z to 00z.  The placement and strengths of the different areas of vorticity, the ridging out west, etc are night and day different from one run to the next, AND from one model to the next.  We are going to be beating a dead horse when we say this because I know its been said already but we still have ZERO consensus on this threat, and will not know if this is truly the real deal until under 5-7days out AT BEST IMO.  The ensembles are still spread out although are very encouraging.  

GFS:

00z:
" />
06z:
" />

CMC:

12z:
" />
00z:
" />

EURO:

12z:
" />
00z:
" />

Model skill set rapidly decreases in amplified active patterns. When observing guidance, as others have mentioned; is the fact have not focused on a single event(they have began to converge). It is possible, due to the vast number of areas of vorticity, that we may have a number of events in sequence, not just a single large event; and models are just having issues handling such a meridional flow. For example the ECMWF last night had a large system around the 15th, then another system around the 19th, then what looks to be another system destined for EC cyclogensis a few days later. This makes sense given the 500mb evolution on both the EPS, and GEFS; that with such a slow, and locked in flow.

[Snow88]

Models are going to struggle to see which shortwave to focus on

[NjWeatherGuy]

Holy Crap....


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=225&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_225_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160109+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[Sponsored content]