Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[nutleyblizzard]

The next Mo Mo will have all the specifics, including a high level discussion about our next storm threat February 9th-12th. There is a lot to love about the upcoming pattern once we get through this week. It's reminiscent of our winter patterns from 2014-2015. Anomalous negative EPO develops which displaces the Arcric cold in the North Pole into our latitude. It's going to be interesting to see how this type of pattern meshes with the strong El Nino. I've been saying it for awhile but I think February will definitely end up being the coldest month and we'll also be tracking another Godzilla before all is said and done.

Fun times ahead indeed Frank. Mugs mentions about the LR outlook with regards of the models are having a tough time picking up with the development of Atlantic blocking which seems to be trending stronger as we move closer in. That would help to aid in helping to achieve another major snow event. Something to keep an eye out in future model runs.

[skinsfan1177]

Don't worry gfs op this far is on crack. GEFS and EPS show otherwise and 500mb maps do too. Neg AO with N epo bleeding over to neg NAO making a bridge with a big pna and it is going to cut?? Hahahahaha! I know peeps will say and winter cancel . From the 5th to 25 and possibly March 10th ( euro para weeklies shiwing this extended till then)e are BN cold with many storm chances as I called. If we get all then u all buy me drinks at the future g2g forever!!!

Why do others on the other site say that do they look at somethimg different one person on their is always negative. They have great info but sometimes its overwhelming with negativity.

Hey Skins I saw you posted this last night as well.  I hadn't had a chance to look at much in detail until this morning.  If I had another 1-2hrs I would put together a blog with images.  My guess is the other weenies live in die by individual model runs.  They see a run and interpret it down to the last detail and claim they have a clue where the pattern is going.  People like that are also the first to make a 180 when the models change and claim they were on it all along.  

Times like this you really truly have to step back and look at the big picture before taking any definitive stance on the LR.  Any coincidence that we haven't heard much from Frank??  We are in a period of relax and reload.  There are big picture, pattern driver changes a brew that can and will dictate how the LR goes, but any time you get the state of flux like we are in now there is no way you can look at an operational model and think you have a clue what the hell your talking about.  If the weenies on the other board want to claim they see cutter after cutter in the LR then let them.  If they are right, its not because they had a clue, but because the sun shines on a dogs ass every now and then. (Feel free to copy and paste this in the other board).   If you are going to look at a model look at the ensemble forecasts for the GFS or Euro, and maybe sprinkle in the CMC ens as well do get an idea.  

Here are the big picture ideas, or major pattern drivers that I am looking at to determine where I think the pattern is headed.

1) the stratosphere.  There are indicators that the changes in the stratosphere would lead to more favorable conditions for cold and storminess in the eastern half of the country
2) The MJO.  There are contradictions between the GFS and Euro MJO forecasts.  GFS wants it to lag in the phase 3(cold phase); whereas euro tries to bring it into 4/5(warm phases).  The LR euro ens forecast actually is contradictory to its MJO forecast in that it is forecasting arctic intrusions, and storm chances into the east beyond the 3rd-5th.  The euro has been a better handler of the MJO for most of the season to date.
3) Teleconnections: The return of the -EPO, +PNA, -AO are looking better and better as time goes on.  The re-est of the -NAO is also looking better and better as well.  
4) El Nino conts to weaken/tropical forcing east of the dateline  

If you look at the teleconnections I think the system around the 5th-7th will trend stronger and better.  Sorry Mugsradomous aka St Mugsy,  if this one happens its mine.  I called this one several days ago.    But there is no doubt as Mugs has pointed out that the pattern is ripe for several storm chances as we move forward.  This of course does not mean any or all will or will not produce the outcome we look for.  

You must remember that the pattern is the sum of all parts.  I believe the Strat changes, and EPO/AO couplet become the dominate drivers with the PNA and NAO really enhancing our storm chances.  The tropical forcing mechanisms east of the dateline in association with our Nino end up enhancing the aforementioned blocking and the MJO influences this time around will be muted.  I cannot say this with 100% confidence at all; however,  I do not buy the warm Feb idea at all.  The cutter that will be a beast for the midest and plains will be an important feature, but not the end all be all, in the transition in overall pattern once it lifts into Canada so we have to give the models, ensembles included, some time to digest that system  as we head into the 1st of Feb.  Since Frank has been quiet for a little while I would expect him to have a new state of the union coming for this weeks Mo Mo.  If there is any thing to add, or enforce, or disagree with I will try to do a more in depth blog on Tuesday.

Thank you for always giving us a write up that is thorough, insightful, and easy to understand!! enjoy your weekend.

Sroc what a great write up and great understanding as we move forward. Thank you for this write up. Nothing but positive vibes here!

[NjWeatherGuy]

GFS 276, love the look

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_276_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160130+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160130+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

[NjWeatherGuy]

Holy cold

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=312&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_312_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160130+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

[amugs]

As Isotherm so eloquently (to this weenie) stated last night about the N NAO and when you look at today's run it is already more bullish on the Greenland / -NAO height rises. The models should continue to pick up on this with each run and I firmly believe will get colder as well with the -epo going to lock in do the GOA LP retrograding to sw of the Aleutians big time and a huge +pna.

Dates to watch +1/-1 for each in Feb/March as Mugs Stradamus looks into his snow globe weenie style for storms:
5th
8th
10-12th
14-17th PD tres
20-22nd
24-26th Snowicane deuce
3/2-4
3/7-10

SROC prove it Feb 5th post please - excerpt - anything - these are my dates my man and I will fight to the death of winter over this - HAHAAHAHA!!

[amugs]

Holy cold

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=312&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_312_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160130+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

Last nights CMC too the PV lobe and from teh map I Posted put that sucker right over NNJ and the HV -= that woudl SICK COLD!!! Rival the cold from last year but like I have been harping on 1978!!

[sroc4]

by sroc4 on Tue Jan 26, 2016 4:02 pm

Unfortunately, I think we won't only see the next potential cut to our west, I also think that we may see an extended relaxation period of the pattern. Based on the MJO forecasts, it appears that through the next 15 days (if not longer) it will be stuck in the warm phases (4, 5, and maybe 6) as it begins to regain amplitude. Even though the ensembles, both GFS and EURO show support for another nice look getting into the first week of February, I would not be surprised to see this continuously pushed back as the MJO influences begin to show up in the guidance. Just my honest opinion.

This is def a concern, but we are going to have to see if it really holds true.  The MJO has been very disorganized and incoherent as of late.  Ensemble forecasts are def hinting at the return of the -EPO, +PNA, and -AO, and possibly -NAO.  The epo and AO blocking signal seems to be the strongest beginning to build by early next week.  I don't think the epo ao blocking will be established enough to prevent the system around the 3rd from cutting but we will just have to monitor.  The 5th-7th time frame interests me for our nxt chance at a winter storm system in the east. But again as you pointed out if the MJO pulse in the warmer phases is strong enough it may delay the decent look currently modeled on the LR ens forecasts.        

Here you go mugs..time stamp and all.

[weatherwatchermom]

The next Mo Mo will have all the specifics, including a high level discussion about our next storm threat February 9th-12th. There is a lot to love about the upcoming pattern once we get through this week. It's reminiscent of our winter patterns from 2014-2015. Anomalous negative EPO develops which displaces the Arcric cold in the North Pole into our latitude. It's going to be interesting to see how this type of pattern meshes with the strong El Nino. I've been saying it for awhile but I think February will definitely end up being the coldest month and we'll also be tracking another Godzilla before all is said and done.

looking forward to the momo..

[Grselig]

As Isotherm so eloquently (to this weenie) stated last night about the N NAO and when you look at today's run it is already more bullish on the Greenland / -NAO height rises. The models should continue to pick up on this with each run and I firmly believe will get colder as well with the -epo going to lock in do the GOA LP retrograding to sw of the Aleutians big time and a huge +pna.

Dates to watch +1/-1 for each in Feb/March as Mugs Stradamus looks into his snow globe weenie style for storms:
5th
8th
10-12th
14-17th PD tres
20-22nd
24-26th Snowicane deuce
3/2-4
3/7-10

SROC prove it Feb 5th  post please - excerpt - anything - these are my dates my man and I will fight to the death of winter over this - HAHAAHAHA!!

In the Steel Cage. 2 Giants of the NJ Strong Weather Forum. In the corner to my left. The Mad Veterinarian. The man with the power to harness 1 million angry packs of dogs. SROC. And from Hillsdale NJ. The Living Legend. The man with the most positive Weather Outlook of mankind. The One Man Gang. AMUGS. Gentlemen. Lets have an unfair bloody battle. May the winner be SNOW.

[amugs]

HERE IT IS FOLKS THE STEELS CAGE MATCH BETWEEN SROC AND MUGS

[frank 638]

Lol let's go mugs

[frank 638]

Jeff Smith was saying this Friday we might get a costal low with rain or snow and I wonder if we are getting a snowstorm after the Superbowl because for the past 2 years we would get a storm

[sroc4]

As Isotherm so eloquently (to this weenie) stated last night about the N NAO and when you look at today's run it is already more bullish on the Greenland / -NAO height rises. The models should continue to pick up on this with each run and I firmly believe will get colder as well with the -epo going to lock in do the GOA LP retrograding to sw of the Aleutians big time and a huge +pna.

Dates to watch +1/-1 for each in Feb/March as Mugs Stradamus looks into his snow globe weenie style for storms:
5th
8th
10-12th
14-17th PD tres
20-22nd
24-26th Snowicane deuce
3/2-4
3/7-10

SROC prove it Feb 5th  post please - excerpt - anything - these are my dates my man and I will fight to the death of winter over this - HAHAAHAHA!!

In the Steel Cage.  2 Giants of the NJ Strong Weather Forum.  In the corner to my left.  The Mad Veterinarian.  The man with the power to harness 1 million angry packs of dogs.  SROC.  And from Hillsdale NJ.  The Living Legend.  The man with the most positive Weather Outlook of mankind.  The One Man Gang.  AMUGS.   Gentlemen.  Lets have an unfair bloody battle.  May the winner be SNOW.

Lol hilarious!

[sroc4]

HERE IT IS FOLKS THE STEELS CAGE MATCH BETWEEN SROC AND MUGS

I am def George "the animal" steel baby. Lol. We prob won't have anything but if it does...ITS MINE!!

[Dunnzoo]

Looks like the 5th storm jogs a tiny bit west on the 18z gfs.... CMC ots....

[skinsfan1177]

Seems like their is lots to track I see it now many sleepless nights

[nutleyblizzard]

Seems like their is lots to track I see it now many sleepless nights

Yep. The storm potential on the 10th peaks my interest. If it takes the coastal route and there's cold air in place, could be a real doozy.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm thinking the 5th-6th could feature a light snowfall event for the area. The potential is there for more as a coastal storm stays offshore, but if that misses we can get Miller B development from the Polar energy. Thinking 1-3 inches for now. We'll see how this trends.

-------

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/viewtopic.forum?t=655

[Sponsored content]