Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Guest]

Looking at the model runs there appears to be 3 storm threats. Monday looks cold enough but OTS. The 22nd (sroc4's date for a big storm) looks like too far n/e and no high to the north. The 29th (Frank's date for a Godzilla) big storm with no cold air around like the one for this Saturday.

[algae888]

This from don s. a well respected and knowledgeable poster from another board concerning the rest of jan.

"However, if one looks out to the Pacific, some of the guidance is suggesting that the SOI will rebound to positive and possibly strongly positive values within 10 days. During strong or super El Niño events, that development can coincide with the development of strong ridging over some part of Ontario or Quebec.

 

The ECMWF ensembles and GFS ensembles are in agreement about the development of just such ridging during the 240-hour to 288-hour timeframe. If that occurs, what should have been the locking in of a colder pattern on account of the blocking—something I had expected—could wind up being a more variable pattern with shots of cold alternating with warmer conditions from the Plains States to the East. The Middle Atlantic region, New England, and Quebec might have the highest probability of seeing net warm anomalies in the extended range if such a pattern develops. This issue will need to be revisited in coming days.

 

Finally, on the stratospheric front, a strong Wave 2 pulse is likely to develop over the next 10-15 days. However, it’s far too soon to be sure whether the wave will have the amplitude necessary to trigger a sudden stratospheric warming event. The ECMWF argues against such an event through the next 10 days, but 10 days is beyond a reasonably accurate forecasting horizon. Such events are only forecast with reasonable accuracy within a few days of their onset, so aside from noting the forecast development of the wave, more data will be needed to reach any conclusions about the likelihood of such an event. The infrequency of such events—about one every two winters—argues for holding off on conclusions until more data is available.

[algae888]

Well well well we may be focusing on the wrong system. the system for Sunday night and Monday just misses us Congrats to Charlotte Norfolk Virginia Delaware southern New Jersey and eastern Long Island snow does make it into the city but on the lite side. about 100 miles southeast of the benchmark a bomb. as I said yesterday this next 7 days will be our only chance to see snow this month

[Frank_Wx]

The possible MLK Day storm has its own thread.

[Quietace]

[Quietace]

[NjWeatherGuy]

If this is a winter of C-1" events its not gonna be a good year...

[Frank_Wx]

I mentioned in yesterday's blog that if nothing works out over the next 10 days, January, we'll have to wait until February. Low heights are expected to park themselves over the west coast again around the 25th.



Also know that a February outlook will be released January 29th. It will either end winter or give you hope we can still reach our seasonal snowfall in February / March

[Snow88]

20-22 storms looks interesting. -EPO looks to develop during that timeframe

[jmanley32]

Gfs and cmc have Godzilla at same time frame. As said in banter if euro has it this could b real legit even 8 days or so out.

[Frank_Wx]

Well, the Saturday thread will not come to fruition because of the ULL in southern Canada raising heights over the east coast. The MLK threat is likely to be some sort of inverted trough and those are insane to predict. Anyone's guess where it could set up. Our next threat comes next Friday. GFS showing a coastal system.



CAN WE FINALLY GET THE STARS TO ALIGN????

[skinsfan1177]

Well, the Saturday thread will not come to fruition because of the ULL in southern Canada raising heights over the east coast. The MLK threat is likely to be some sort of inverted trough and those are insane to predict. Anyone's guess where it could set up. Our next threat comes next Friday. GFS showing a coastal system.



CAN WE FINALLY GET THE STARS TO ALIGN????

I believe any details on this storm does the setup look good?

[jmanley32]

Frank it's a good sign that all 3 models have a storm signal around then this far out right? Euro has something in south at 240.

[RJB8525]

Frank it's a good sign that all 3 models have a storm signal around then this far out right? Euro has something in south at 240.

Let us pray.

[Frank_Wx]

Once again, the outcome of this storm is all up to the PAC. If the ridge out west collapses, this storm is likely heading out to sea or possibly even cutting. If there is a phase - like the 12z GFS shows - we'll get a storm up the coast even though the PAC ridge still collapsed. But it do so at an ideal time since the phase already happened and H5 closed off. This is a Godzilla verbatim.

[Frank_Wx]

12z CMC jumps on board. This is getting exciting. Now watch, come Monday all of this will be cutting to our west because H5 closes off too early. UGHHHHHH

[jmanley32]

The overnight runs had it too Frank, so its not just the 12z, actually the overnights looked better I thought. It is a bit more intriguing.

[jmanley32]

Once again, the outcome of this storm is all up to the PAC. If the ridge out west collapses, this storm is likely heading out to sea or possibly even cutting. If there is a phase - like the 12z GFS shows - we'll get a storm up the coast even though the PAC ridge still collapsed. But it do so at an ideal time since the phase already happened and H5 closed off. This is a Godzilla verbatim.

How is it a Godzilla verbatim, looks like mainly light precip, lets get that blue in here hehe

[jmanley32]

Tropical tidbits (wxbell being slow) shows much heavier precip and totals around 12-16 inches...look Godzilla ruuuuunnn!

[Guest]

12z CMC jumps on board. This is getting exciting. Now watch, come Monday all of this will be cutting to our west because H5 closes off too early. UGHHHHHH

Frank......Frank.....Don't do this to us. I just quit on winter yesterday morning. Don't try to bring me back in!!!

I firmly believe this is the original threat we were looking at last weekend that the computer models lost and turned into this Fri. night's threat which now is not a big deal and maybe they start bringing Monday back which was the original threat all along and fit the date of the original threat/thread.

[jmanley32]

12z CMC jumps on board. This is getting exciting. Now watch, come Monday all of this will be cutting to our west because H5 closes off too early. UGHHHHHH

Frank......Frank.....Don't do this to us.  I just quit on winter yesterday morning.  Don't try to bring me back in!!!

I firmly believe this is the original threat we were looking at last weekend that the computer models lost and turned into this Fri. night's threat which now is not a big deal and maybe they start bringing Monday back which was the original threat all along and fit the date of the original threat/thread.

syo this is next Friday the 22nd, look at hours 186.

[Guest]

I just recognized that Jman.

[jmanley32]

 I just recognized that Jman.

But unlike the prior LR systems the 22nd has a lot of support this far out, Euro not in range yet but I suspect its holding back and will come in line and CMC is more northern driven but hoping will look more like GFS. Can't want to see what Euro does when it reaches us, this is what it looks like a 240. Not sure how to view the Euro para in this format on wxbell.

[jmanley32]

Temps are in teens at 240 hrs, not sure if that surge of warmth comes with the LP on Euro or not, hoping not.

[jmanley32]

Euro ensembles are encouraging some have mega bombs with godzillas, maybe about 15 or the individuals but ranging from 22nd to 25th.  Not sure why the slower time frame but def a good sign to see the ensembles coming on board.

Theres still quite a spread butsome real bombs there and a def signal.

[Frank_Wx]

The EPS look nothing like the OP.

I think we have ourselves a pretty good threat here. I will remain skeptical for the next 3 days because I do not trust the Pacific. It has screwed us too many times this season. We'll see....

[jmanley32]

The EPS look nothing like the OP.

I think we have ourselves a pretty good threat here. I will remain skeptical for the next 3 days because I do not trust the Pacific. It has screwed us too many times this season. We'll see....

Yes I think so too but not getting hyped just showing the maps I am seeing, after so many letdowns already I won't be terribly upset if this doesn't play out but I have more interest in this one than any other purely because all 3 models have a signal at this time, if it was just the gfs or just the cmc, wouldn't pay it any mind.  Can't wait to see whats going on in 3 days.  We need to get these two pesky letdowns out of here. You mean the EPS look better than OP right? And why the slower progression, its showing over the weekend rather than Fri like GFS and somewhat the CMC (though CMC doesn't really have a coastal).

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